Tide turning against unruly bears?

If you missed 60 Minutes like I did, here's what Big Ben had to say.

I'm not talking about Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlesberger. The real Big Ben is Bernanke, and he thinks the recession could end this year. Maybe.

Selfish as it sounds, I'm equally concerned about how his words will affect the market in the near term. Still have a small position in Citigroup and started another small one in Wells Fargo on Friday. So far, so good. C, which closed at $1.78 on Friday, is going bonkers in Tokyo.

¥196 = $2.00

It's off the high of ¥212, but the roller coaster ride will continue for C shares in the morning.

Excerpt from the interview:

Bernanke told 60 Minutes we were close to a second Depression and he is determined to not let the major banks fail on his watch.

"One of the things that I think many people watching this interview don't understand, is why there are multiple bailouts, four bailouts of AIG, three bailouts of Citigroup. There is a sense that this is a band-aid approach, that we're not getting to the root of the problem," Pelley remarked.

"Well, part of the issue is that, you know, the economy has gotten a good bit worse. You know, the first part of the crisis was subprime and other assets that were toxic. Now, we're in a second phase, which is that the economy is very weak," he said. "So the economy's weakness has meant that some of the initial attempts to stabilize the banks haven't been enough, and we've had to do more."

"You know, Mr. Chairman, there are so many people outside this building, across this country, who say, 'To hell with them. They made bad bets. The wages of failure on Wall Street should be failure,'" Pelley remarked.

"Let me give you an analogy, if I might," Bernanke said. "If you have a neighbor, who smokes in bed. And he's a risk to everybody. If suppose he sets fire to his house, and you might say to yourself, you know, 'I'm not gonna call the fire department. Let his house burn down. It's fine with me.' But then, of course, but what if your house is made of wood? And it's right next door to his house? What if the whole town is made of wood? Well, I think we'd all agree that the right thing to do is put out that fire first, and then say, 'What punishment is appropriate? How should we change the fire code? What needs to be done to make sure this doesn't happen in the future? How can we fire proof our houses?' That's where we are now. We have a fire going on."

Bernanke told Pelley that "fire" is still burning.

Asked if all the big banks the Fed regulates are solvent, Bernanke said, "I believe they are, yes. But we are doing a stress test right now, where we're looking at what the positions of the banks are under a tougher economic scenario than the one that we currently expect. And what we plan to do is to say how much capital would each bank need to be well capitalized. Not just solvent, but well capitalized, even in these more adverse scenarios."

"Are you committing in this interview, that you are not going to let any of these banks fail? That no matter what their balance sheet actually looks like, they are not gonna fail?" Pelley asked.

"They are not gonna fail," Bernanke said. "But what we can do, should it be necessary, is try to wind it down in a safe way."

New iPhone software

I'm no tech dweeb, but this is cool stuff.

Apple will unveil, sorta, new software for iPhone 3.0, in just four days. They won't produce the product just yet, but it's big news for iPhone addicts and those of us who like Apple's stuff. (I have a small position in AAPL now.) All the little improvements that iPhone owners have wanted could be addressed. Shee, wasn't it just a year or two ago when most of the world's tech writers openly doubted Apple's ability to challenge the leaders (RIMM's BlackBerry, Palm)?

Just touching the iPhone, like I did yesterday at the always-crowded Apple store at Ala Moana, is an automatic joy button for me. I sure can't stand the unlimited minutes package ($129.99 per month!), but it is a technological slice of heaven. The stock slipped a little today, which gave me a decent (not great) entry point above 95. After dropping to 83 last week, AAPL might sit around 95 for awhile ... like until Tuesday.

Dollars and Apples

Citigroup closed today at 1.67. Just crazy considering it was at a buck to start the week. Big pullback this morning (Thursday) the took it from 1.54 (Wednesday's close) to 1.48 before another run-up.

I like watching C because it's the ultimate statement about where we stand as a country, hoisting up a downtrodden villain, a battered boxer who once used steroids regularly. Citigroup is the Alex Rodriguez of the free market, except that Rodriguez isn't getting billions in bailout cash. (Yes, I have a small position now.)

Apple was available at 90 on Wednesday and closed above 96 today. Is the super-small new iPod Shuffle that big a deal? I still don't own an iPhone, probably never will given my habit of dropping my (freebie) cellphone. I don't even have an iPod. I'm still pounding away on an outdated PowerBook. Yet, of all the tech stocks, AAPL is the one I am glued to. No other tech has the Cool Factor of Apple, and when times get better, Cool is what sells.

So, which is a "safer" bet? A financial like C or Wells Fargo, or Apple? Probably Apple, for now.

Buffett's breakfast blast

Before I lose it, here's the link to his sitdown on CNBC Monday: Buffett's breakfast blast

I didn't read it until Wednesday. Amazing, what he's saying about toxic assets. It's opposite of what the general media have been writing. His words, along with President Obama's confidence, have helped turn the market around the past three days.

Strangely (and stupidly) enough, all of Buffett's upside perspective didn't register with me in terms of Wells Fargo (WFC). I never once thought to study it. Sure enough, WFC is another financial soaring higher. WFC traded below 10 on Monday. By Wednesday, while I read Buffett, it was still at 12. WFC closed today (Thursday) at 13.95.

He talked openly about Wells Fargo and the spreads and the way toxic assets are probably the institution's best assets. It was kind of shocking to hear for us mere mortals. WFC is still far off its one-year high (44).

Stewart skewers CNBC

Can we C clearly?

A scary proposition. You know, there once was a time when being involved with a bank stock was about as exciting as getting a kiss from your wig-wearing, prune-faced, fishy-lipped second-grade teacher. I somehow managed to be have well enough to avoid that fate. (Yes, Mrs. Ward, you were a great teacher, I came to learn. Effective as hell.)

Take Citigroup. Perky commercials. Well-branded. And sucky to the max after dropping to $1 a share from a high of $55. Then, a funny thing happened. The CEO said they made a profit for the first time in two years. Sure, never hurts to have Big Brother flushing your coffers with beeeeeeeeeeeellions of bucos. But after the CEO's positive remark (via memo), the stock rose to $1.40. Hate your penny stocks (ahem) or not, that's a 40% gain in one day. ONE DAY.

I hate gambling, but this is something worth watching. I don't anticipate touching C. Mara Der Hovanesian's piece asks about the "toxic assets" that Citigroup cannot rectify. But I will watch rather than guess. Playing C would be the equivalent of playing black jack in Vegas. Or worse?

One thing is probably, my opinion: The feds aren't about to let Citigroup go over the cliff. Does that mean shares will settle in at $2 or $5? Who knows. The optimist can yodel that major volume (1 billion shares) were traded on a huge up day. The cynic can murmur that this stock is completely forked.

I'm thinking "play" money is all right on C at $1. Just like Apple at $78, though trading C would seem more like trusting deadbeats and card sharks with hard-earned cash.

Is it time yet?

Three months since I last checked in. Much longer since I ever considered buying shares. Of anything.

Is it time yet? Or is this simply a nation high on Obama? I'm staying tuned, I guess, but I'm not chomping at the bit.

Simplicity vs. fighting a bear market. Simplicity won. Instead of trying to invest and swim against the tide, I actually treated myself in 2008. New TV. New toys. Nothing extravagant. Just a couple of things to help me enjoy life and work a little more. I'm still a half-generation behind the times, as always.

But is it time yet?