The Takedown, part 3?

10:55 pm (Hawaii) Just when things looked so promising for Spot Silver, we have this. It looks like yet another takedown by the puppet masters. Just as the price hit 38.75, it got mauled down to 37.57. Looks like there was some fighting by bulls along the way, but when it's this one-sided, there can be only one reason. Price is now lower than it was when afterhours trading ended stateside earlier today (Wednesday).

Just another 30 minutes or so before Hong Kong closes shop. London and Globex took Spot Silver higher the past two days overnight. But it hadn't been knocked senseless like this in those instances. Could the CME really announce another margin hike requirement in the morning? I can't say I would be shocked. But with all the brouhaha in London over JP Morgan and manipulation of price in the LME, any puppetry (paper silver manipulation, lies about physical silver in the Comex vaults, etc.) would be at least a bit surprising.

Update 11:03 pm (Hawaii) Holy crap it just got worse. Back to vertical crashes by the CME Mafia. Guess I should've taken my silver play profits when I had the chance. Nothing I can do here but watch a dvr, read a book and go to sleep. They can't keep silver down forever and they know it. I'll be patient.

Update 11:08 pm (Hawaii) Gold getting beaten down, as well. The earlier margin hike abuses (five hikes in nine days) scared off plenty of speculators. Then Spot Silver moved from 32.20 to 39+ before dropping again. What happens this time? If buyers can't push Spot Silver back up, will the price just melt and dissolve back to the low 30s? Or worse? 

I could've avoided the risk by cashing out earlier, or by learning how to buy puts. But it's too late now. If the price keeps getting brutalized when peon premarket trading starts in less than 3 hours, I'll get some ZSL and hedge myself for the bumpy ride. It's a good thing I'm 60% cash. If they take it below 35, below 33, even below 30, I'm ready for more physical. 

Update 11:24 pm (Hawaii) Spot Silver finally bounces a tiny bit. Gotta hand it to the CME. If they really felt like it, they could take it to 30 overnight. That would probably be too obvious and blatant, even by their standards. They could be doing this to 1) ease buying pressure, 2) create better physical buying opportunities for its vault, 3) counter China's new gold futures instrument in Hong Kong, 4) send a message to China regarding its coming silver futures instrument. 

FX Street: USD weakens on prospects of China buying EU bonds (May 26 2011)

Asia taking silver higher

4:44 pm (Hawaii) Spot silver at 38.20 after Sydney and Hong Kong open shop. Impressive. We'll see if it sticks ... again, since Hong Kong opened its gold futures instrument, PMs have been on solid footing. So far.

6:20 pm (Hawaii) Until this week, the last time Asia bid Spot Silver up like this ... the CME Mafia shot them down in cold blood. Asia never really recovered until recently. Yesterday, Asia kept the price at the 36-36.50 level. Tonight, price has gone from 37.75 to 38.50. Last price was 38.26. Spot Gold is at 1527.90, still holding its ground after Monday's move from 1516 to 1525.

John Embry: Silver market extraordinarily tight, look for $125 (May 25 2011)

Zero Hedge: Euro gold confiscation scheme unfolds (May 25 2011)

Buyer's remorse?

2:20 pm (Hawaii) No remorse here, not short term anyway. I've bought almost all the physical gold and silver I could lately, especially after Spot Silver dropped below 35. But just for fun, I'll go look at some of the stuff I bought, have ordered or just didn't get.

• Scottsdale Silver 10-oz bar. Still waiting on this, being patient, and it'll feel great in my hands. I bet I'll wish I had 10 instead of just one. Ordered it at $387. Now going for $407.

• The Academy 10-oz hand-poured bar has always been the apple of my eye. Never ordered it. It was around $382 a week or two ago. Now going for $405.

More later. Got errands to tend to.

Update 4:23 pm (Hawaii) More stuff I either got or couldn't get.

• 10-oz Englehard silver bar. I got this when the "cash discount price" was roughly $415. I paid more (credit card). Now going for $432 ($443 credit card) at Provident Metals.

• Silver American Eagle (2006) is something I picked up off-island for $40.77 apiece. Now going for $45.21 ($46.43 credit card) at Provident.

• Gold American Eagle (2006) is another coin I have, but only the 1/10. Random year price is 172.75 at Provident. I got mine at $180, slightly overpaid, but happy to have a piece of gold.

• Gold American Eagle (random year) 1/2 oz. I ordered this recently and paid $816 or so. Now going for $825 at Provident.

I'd love to get a lot more silver ASEs but I'm torn between something like that, a US Mint-backed coin with a big premium, and silver (and gold) at the cheapest possible price. I've read the arguments for and against paying premium. Not like I'm about to buy 100,000 ounces anyway, but I keep learning. Preferable to being ignorant.

The ideal, of course, would be a collection of big bars (savings) and coins (fun). Something to shoot for, no doubt.

Path of least resistance

5:34 am (Hawaii) The indices have been rather quiet, but PMs are reaching higher. Spot Gold was constant around 1522-1527 overnight and is now above 1530. Spot Silver has inched over 37.50. With each little grab higher, a little more fear leaves the PM market. As Turd Ferguson wrote yesterday, there's not a whole lot of resistance for Spot Silver between 36.50 and 39, so holding this territory is vital for bulls. All the litigious action in London regarding JP Morgan and other entities over monopolization clearly has an effect on what used to be typical counter measures by the CME. A little part of me wouldn't be shocked if grenades start falling and an attempt to drive Spot Silver down happens. We shall see.

I opened a small position in AGQ at 195 this morning. Still holding positions in EXK (up 5.6%) and XG, which is stuck in the mud at 10.43, down almost 3% from my entry point two days ago. Eventually, buyers will return to XG, no idea when. I'm more than 60% in cash.

With that, AGQ just cracked 200 and EXK is closing in on 9.90. The biggest gainer on my Metals list is GPL (+7.8%).

Haines

5:22 am (Hawaii) I got up with the alarm clock at 2 am, then slid back into slumber until about 4:15. I kept the TV off until about 15 minutes ago, roughly 5 am. That's where my morning changed. Checking charts and the market without the TV on can be calming, even clarifying. Then I turned on the TV and was stunned. With the passing of CNBC's Mark Haines, it's a bit surreal. Wasn't he on the air just yesterday? Just like that, gone. He was one of the few TV interviewers who had the green light to put any CEO to task on any issue. Not sure they can really, fully replace his experience and candor. Prayers and best wishes to his family and friends.

New York Times: Mark Haines, CNBC anchor, dies at 65 (May 25 2011)

Pop tomorrow, bear raid later?

1:06 pm (Hawaii) Makes sense to me. As Jesse says, the last time there was a PM pop on options expiry, a massive bear raid on the following three-day weekend ensued. We're entering a similar scenario this week. I was already planning to cash out before the weekend.

Dan Norcini: Fed's Bullard gives commodity rally green light (May 24 2011)

Jesse's Cafe Americain: Options expiry on Comex tomorrow, if they can't bring prices down, watch for bear raid this weekend (May 24 2011)

Update 4:35 pm (Hawaii) Here's the perspective of the eccentric genius, Le Fly, who is taking precautionary measures (as always) for an inflationary environment. He expects some form of QE3 to start sooner or later, lest Greece default, the Euro banking cartel collapse, and drag the US into the gutter with them.

iBankCoin: The cost of inaction is too great (May 24 2011)

Update 11:58 pm (Hawaii) A quick look before bedtime was worthwhile. Spot Silver up at 37.15. Brother Turd noted that there is little resistance to 39. We shall see soon enough!

Brits say 'Bollocks!" to shysters

12:15 pm (Hawaii) Via SilverGoldSilver.com via Zero Hedge, a story from Reuters points to this as maybe the biggest reason why PMs were up today.

Zero Hedge: Inquiry into monopolistic trading practices by JP Morgan on LME launched (May 24 2011)

Financial Post/Reuters: LME needs to get tough on warehouses (May 24 2011)

Reuters: Lawmakers alert watchdog on LME warehousers (May 24 2011)

This from Zero Hedge:

And another big oops for Blythe Masters who apparently has decided to move now officially investigated market manipulation practices to London and away from the CFTC. In the meantime, silver Comex holdings continue to decline and at last check, are flirting with the record low 100 million ounce level. Once can only imagine (literally) what is concurrently happening at the LME and/or LBMA.