Auzzie persuasion

2:02 pm (Hawaii) It's not usually clockwork, but often enough, Asia and Australia bring some kick back into the beaten-down commodity issues. Gold, which was high as 1551 earlier in the day and then trampled to 1537, has rallied a bit. Spot is at 1543.20, up since Sydney opened an hour ago. Hong Kong opens now.

Silver is also showing some life, but who can tell whether the puppet masters are truly done mashing the life out of it today.

Opened a tiny position in OWW (3.34) just before the end of afterhours trading. It works out to less than 2% of my roll. If OWW collapses in the morning back to 2, I'm out $400 or so. (Or I may add a few more shares.) If it climbs back toward its normal range of 6-7, I get a double. It's more out of fun than actual strategy, and a part of me doesn't think today's selloff will carry over tomorrow. Just the seasonal pukeage. I'm not bullish with the stupidity going on globally, but today didn't feel like a complete el foldo. If the market does resume selling off tomorrow, I'm in good shape at 87% cash.

Yes, this is in Panama City and, yes, Orbitz can send you there.

The diff between dis and dat

12:49 pm (Hawaii) This story on Phil Ivey, Full Tilt Poker and online players who are being left out to dry brought to mind Comex, silver and the whole manipulative world it is. Of course, there are differences, but the similarities had me thinking.

• Full Tilt Poker, like Comex, had full control over all player accounts.

• Full Tilt owes/owed players the goods, but failed to maintain a large enough reserve account to return funds when it was shut down by authorities. (For Full Tilt, it is cash; for CME, there is an apparent shortage of physical silver for its SLV accounts.)

• Phil Ivey, champion and spokesman for the company, has taken a stand against the shenanigans. The only similar party in the silver world would be the CTFC, which is in position to take a stand and sue CME, but probably will never challenge CME.

Of course, there are more differences than similarities in this comparison, but I couldn't help thinking of the parallels. So, for silver to have a truly fair market, it would need a Phil Ivey to stand up, among others. Someone with the clout and credibility to stand up for the little guys. It's safe to say, though, that Full Tilt Poker is probably more approachable and liable (in reality) than CME, JP Morgan, and indirectly, the Fed.

I'm never going to expect fairness in the market. I learned my lessons years ago. If big money and big brother wants to naked short your ass, they will do so without mercy and without repercussion. I'm not a gambler or card player, but it's interesting to compare anyway.

ESPN: Phil Ivey sits out World Series of Poker (June 1 2011)

Turd says it best

11:43 am (Hawaii) Turd Ferguson's update includes a repost of his prior rant against the CTFC and their inaction against the puppet masters. Thing is, the CTFC might be the very ones pulling strings. In any event, Spot Silver close to 35 gets really appealing from a physical standpoint.

4:10 EDT UPDATE:

The Criminal Evil Empire has chosen to once again raid the metals on the afterhours, thinly-traded Globex. Using a weakening equity market as cover, The Cartel sent out the monkeys and successfully clipped $1.20 off of the price of silver in just 13 minutes. They even managed to turn gold negative for a few minutes, effectively wiping out all $16 of hard-fought pit gains. 

At some point, Asia and London will buy up Spot Silver cheap. What's "cheap"? Maybe 34-35. Maybe here at 36-37. But it won't go down forever, as Turd said, with everything coming down the pike for silver delivery this month. Or will it?

Turd: Where are you, Bart Chilton? (June 1 2011)

More here: Staying Grounded (updated) (June 1 2011)

Out of orbit?

11:23 am (Hawaii) Soon as Bill Griffith of CNBC passed along news of Orbitz's courthouse victory over American Airlines, the stock rocketed. It had already risen off its closing price of 2.21 and was in the 2.80 range. I deliberated and passed. Just don't know enough about that industry. But sure enough, it paused and ripped higher and higher going to 3.58 before pulling back.

The Fibonacci level on a retrace was 3.05, and that's precisely where OWW dipped. Unfortunately, I was occupied with work, so OWW bounced off 3.05 back up to 3.40 and has been leveling out since. Now at 3.22. I don't know if I'll try a small position at 3.05 or so, but it's not a horrible risk. This is a stock that started three years or so ago at 14 and found its level halfway down at 7, and has struggled since. This looks like the anti-PCLN. But at some point, profitable companies (is this one, I don't know) are worth more than $1 or $2 per share.

Tough call on where OWW goes tomorrow. Realistically, this would've been strictly a quick trade off the news had I stepped in at 2.80. I would've probably have sold around 3.30-3.40. A quick, decent profit. Everything else is too convoluted, too heavy and too much pain to deal with. How bad can a travel company be when Priceline has shown how it should be done? Anyone arguing that OWW should go back to $7 had better have some proof, especially with crude oil prices above $100/barrel and fewer dollars for travelers to spend.

Simultaneous devouration

9:56 am (Hawaii) Market is about to close for the regular session and the flames are at their highest. Nasdaq down 2.3%. S&P 500 and Dow Jones down 2.2%. Gold and silver taken down by the puppet masters. The only stuff still standing are ZSL (+10.1%), FAZ (+9.3%) and other bearish ETFs and ETNs. Even AAPL (345, -0.6%) got pelted, to no surprise, along with the rest of the market. It had been at 351 and among the few greenies.

This thing could whipsaw every day the rest of the week, no problem. A whiff of good news out of the Euro zone would reverse the action in FAZ (and FAS). But there's no real telling how far the puppet masters will ream gold and silver, especially the latter. That's why I stayed out of the white metal this week.

77% of my Metals list is red. 85% of my regular list is red. 85! Technicians have been saying that the market was due for a decline, and with summer just about here, the timing was right. Now there's going to be doubt whether there will be enough volume either way to push the market up or down for the next month or two. Best to be in cash and be patient. I'm still 90% cash. If anything, I might open a small FAZ position, but nothing more.

My DGP position had been up 2% or so before getting pounded in the final 30 minutes with the rest of the gold and silver plays. It retreated to about 48.85, then bounced back above to 49.13. It's a small position and I still think gold is in play due to the Euro debt crisis. They will keep flocking to gold there.

My favorite gold miner play, XG, held tough and finished down just 1 penny at 11.41. Two news reports (good news) in three days, I'm not sure how much more Extorre can report, but it could continue like this with the success they're having. That's not enough for me to feel comfortable with a large position, however. A small slice might be proper. After all, which will be more stable and positive over time, the price of gold or the declining value of fiat currency?

Extorre on fire

5:59 am (Hawaii) Spot Gold still hot, trading at 1548.60, as Brother Turd forecasted (pushing through 1525, 1540). Extorre Gold Mines is rallying, but not just in sympathy. As I posted before, XG is exquisite when it comes to marketing and flow of news. Today, there's another press release about another abundant mine. XG is at break-even or so for the day (11.42) after trading down to 11.20 or so earlier. I traded out of XG yesterday on the pop, but this continues to be attractive.

Marketwire: Extorre announces silver-gold discovery at Puntudo project (June 1 2011)

One small morsel at a time

4:35 am (Hawaii) The sky is black and hungry baby birds are starting to sing. The air is cool and the early morning has brought no rain, no humidity ... just a pleasant and cool, and quiet, time of day. Maybe the best time of day, all things considered, in this pit of traffic and overcrowding. Yes, Honolulu is still picturesque. It just ain't what it used to be. Sometimes, you just can't go back.

I have yet to turn on the TV, being satisfied with my place in bed and the aforementioned solitude. But the indices are down due to abysmal manufacturing numbers. Senor Turd notes that this shouldn't be any kind of surprise to the market, but one result is that gold shot up 10 bucks.

That's good for my small portion of DGP (+1.1%), bad for most of my Metals list. At one point after the opening bell, 78% were in the red. Now it's only 71%. ZSL and FAZ have taken turns leading the way. FAZ was at 44.14, dropped to 43.85 and I thought maybe a rally was underway. But really, there is no rally coming this morning because there just isn't any good news for now. So FAZ is now up to 44.32.

Gold is hanging in there. NGD is up a half percent, GLD is fractionally higher, and even PALL is still green. But DUST, the gold miner 2x bear, is still up 0.8%. It's tough sledding for gold plays today. It's much rougher on silver plays. ZSL is up 2.6% while AGQ struggles to stay above 200. AG, EXK, SLV are all down. So much for slightly bullish hammers on yesterday's charts. Just goes to show, technicals mean nothing in the face of economic thresholds.

Rare metals (MCP, AVL) are being hammered, as is LNKD, which is now below 79 (-3.5%).

The one, buoyant leader is AAPL, which is up 2.3% to 350. It was at 337 yesterday early, then sat at 343 for hours after the news about next week's presentation featuring Steve Jobs. AAPL closed above 347, then traded today above 352. Major show of strength. Question is whether it can sustain this move while the rest of the market is in the red. Though my metals list is bleeding, my regular watch list (non-metals) is 76% red.

Update 4:53 am (Hawaii) FAZ now 44.55. It appears not everyone in Greece is geeked up about austerity measures. Still. Once again, Euro possessors seek refuge in gold.

AP: Greek banker dismisses euro exit as review looms (June 1 2011)

Reuters: Stocks fall as manufacturing slows (June 1 2011)

Turd: ADP vs. BLS (June 1 2011)

Update 5:16 am (Hawaii) This would be known as a Viagra.

This, even more so.

Update 5:33 am (Hawaii) Metals list is now 56% green. That was quick. Most silver plays went straight up, lower left to the upper right of their charts, in the past 30 minutes or so. Many of them are green now, or close to it. This is a daytrader's joy ride.