Thursday, September 8, 2011

Much ado

Sophie Reade

9:12 am (Hawaii) 45 minutes to the close. Then a long wait until President Obama delivers a much-anticipated speech on the economy. Is this the first official step of commitment toward an infrastructure bank? If it operates like municipals or bonds or whatnot, what will it mean for 1) the market, and 2) the economy? Unless there's some breakthrough commitment to real assets rather than digital currency, wouldn't any so-called infrastructure entity just be a new branch of the Fed, ie fractional/fantasy units?

Whatever the case, I've been watching for a couple of hours. Since Bernanke delivered his non-speech an hour or so ago, AAPL has gone from 384.12 to 383.69, AGQ from 233.68 to 234.10, DGP from 69.72 to 70.75 and FAZ from 57.70 to 58.33. It's interesting that the market was slightly bullish during Bernanke's speech, with AAPL slightly up, AGQ, DGP and FAZ slightly down. That changed with the end of his speech, which had no hints whatsover of QE3.

I'm willing to scale into DGP here, but only on an intraday dip. Might stay all cash until Obama's done talking. But if spot gold bottomed at 1800 yesterday, it's got some work to do going back up. Asia bought the hell out of gold overnight, which has been the common behavior over the past month. Price gets knocked down by the puppeteers of the West, and then Asia steps in with full buying force. Or maybe it's far less than full force. Wouldn't surprise me that the biggest buying from the East is yet to come. We still don't have PAGE open just yet. That operation will allow China bank customers to buy gold directly. No bullshit or flim-flam from the power elite. With inflation a major issue in the Middle Kingdom, savers will keep flocking to hard, golden assets.

AGQ closed at 225.39 yesterday, opened today at 235.49 and has kept most of those gains so far. With puppeteers like JP Morgan bullish on gold ($2,500 forecast), I still believe they are short silver with all the ammo they can grab. I'll touch AGQ only on a severe dip and ride that out. 233 is a bit high for now.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library


Charts

Is this the bottom for spot gold and silver? Is 1800 the floor in gold? Is DGP worth a small position here? Maybe a small scale-in ... but there are too many wolves out there and nobody needs to be a sheep right now.

Blogs
"I am now +80% overnight on my TNA calls. I am not selling until the PPT registers OVERBOUGHT. ... If you want to become a pro in this business, you need to control your fucking emotions. The most important aspect of investing is knowing your talent."
Turd Ferguson: WARNING (updated) (Sept 7)
"In an attempt to mitigate the 'negative' effect on francs priced in gold, the SNB sold a massive amount of gold futures at the same time. ... Maximize the downward impact and collateral damage by executing the attack at a time of minimal liquidity. This all wreaks of malicious manipulation."
Chart Swiss Francs: 700,000 ounces dumped on the Globex while London and New York are closed
(Update) "If you believe as I do that this current beatdown in gold is being engineered by the SNB, then why would you think they would rest before pushing gold all the way back down ... to somewhere between 1700 and 1750? It may take until tomorrow or Friday but confidence is high that gold is headed there."
Zero Hedge: Gold Flash (Sept 7)
"Was it a European bank selling more gold to fund itself? Hedge fund liquidation? Hillebrand needing some funding?"
"Sources say he has gone 30 percent to 40 percent in cash, which is very high for him. Some of his cash is invested in U.S. Treasuries, which have in turn risen in value in recent weeks."
"At the open, I doubled down on my TBT position, with cause. It appears the power elite are dismantling the 'risk off' trades, namely Swiss Francs, gold, silver and very soon Treasuries."
Le Fly: Enter the meat-grinder (Sept 7)
"We're due to bounce hard off oversold levels. I am anticipating a 200-500 point move higher from here. ... What if the FHFA lawsuit is a way to threaten the banks, in order to make them open the spigots? Perhaps the government is using a little leverage in their efforts to get those fuckers to start lending again."
Sy Nejem: War (Sept 7)
"Within the past week, the Swiss National Bank dismissed the possibility of interventions to manage the Swiss Franc and then did a complete about-face on that stance. These are efforts undertaken during the latter stages of a battle, when one side starts gaining an obvious edge." 
George Maniere: Why silver may currently be one of the best long-term investments (Sept 7)
"Silver has put in seven confirmed bottoms along the trend line. Once it breaks this resistance level ($44) it will have the $50 level of resistance to break through."
Jeff Nielson: 'Unsinkable' gold (Aug 29)
"Gold is the only asset class capable of outperforming other asset classes in either an 'inflationary' or 'solvency' crisis ... the only asset class capable of protecting us from these simultaneous economic calamities." 
Vlogs
Keiser Report: Fake Assets (Sept 6)
> Artist Alex Schaefer ("Chase Burning")

Audio
Goldseek: James Turk (Sept 6)


Blog commentary
Shelby (GoldWeTrust.up-with.com): WARNING: Massive crash in gold & silver coming in November (Aug 29)
"So what is happening now in 2011, is the same as 2007-2008. The mad movement up of silver and gold is exactly the same as what happened after the SPY peaked in 2007. ... it will end up the same as 2008 because big money cannot buy gold, the only liquid market in the world is the US Treasury market, and 'bug heads' are going to get another lesson in this." 
"Oct 24-Nov 4 2011, (S&P 500) will gyrate around the 200 wma for up to 2 weeks, then crash. There is no limit to how far it can crash, as it could bottom anywhere between 666 and 950."
"After Oct 7, 2011, gold will rise for 2 weeks to about $1850 while the S&P 500 is crashing down to its 200 wma to 1030. On Oct 24, gold will start its worst crash to go down below the 50 wma within about 2 weeks. ... gold will go down to $1370."
Reports
"China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB."

Video

Metal bling
Quality Silver Bullion: September Discount Code (Sept 2)


Silver rubber band


11:22 am (Hawaii) All this fluctuation action in gold, silver, equities, bonds, Treasuries, weather, the size of Lindsey Lohan's (you name it) ... nothing matters as long as I can lay here in the shade, outdoors and stare at the blue sky. Sunshine sparkling on the foliage nearby. Birds singing. Breeze lilting. Fuck all the other stuff. I treasure this moment of peace.

That being said, it was on a long drive the other day when I started thinking, who the hell really knows how high (or low) gold and silver will go. Even Mike Maloney thinks both will rip, then burst as the investment turns into a bubble at some point with pop culture flooding through the entry gate. For now, though, maybe a rubber band snapback to higher highs and higher lows is in effect regardless of puppetry by the CME mafia, Swiss National Bank, JP Morgan, blah blah blaaah.

So in the most overly simplistic mathematical ratio possible, here's one dense summary of spot silver:

The most recent surge took price from $19 to $49, followed by a pullback to $32. (Yes, I'm ignoring the run to $21 and that subsequent pullback to $9.) That's an increase of 258% and a drop of 35%, so those are the numbers I'll use for this rubber band action.

$19 —> $49 (+258%)
$49 —> $32 (-35%)
$32 —> $82 (+258%)
$82 —> $53 (-35%)
$53 —> $136 (+258%)
$136 —> $88 (-35%)
$88 —> $227 (+258%)
$227 —> $147 (-35%)
$147 —> $379 (+258%)
$379 —> $246 (-35%)
$246 —> $634 (+258%)
$634 —> $412 (-35%)
$412 —> $1,062 (+258%)

Now, at this point, sure this is pure fantasy. Nothing repeats perfectly over this long a time frame, especially when manipulation is so prominent, and when it comes from the freaking highest levels of power. But there are real possible reasons why silver can go to $1,062 and beyond. Though the bubble will burst at some point, before then, public demand will be insanely heavy. And before that, the central banks and elitists will have plenty of gold and silver in their coffers. Buried in chests and all that. Treasure maps hidden away. Whatever. But the large numbers will overwhelm what we currently view as TPTB. That's what makes governments tremble, when millions are in the streets calling for change. The Swiss caving in to economic and political pressure yesterday doomed the last vestige of stability for currency in Euroland. Sure, there's short-term bliss, but longer term, there's no footing for any Euro economy.

There isn't a single stable fiat currency in the world. And there won't be one until the US quits printing dollars by the trillions.

Almost every silver and gold bug anticipates a period of anarchy followed by fundamental governmental change. Political change. Fiscal change. Control change. Silver at $1,062 will probably mean a gallon of gas and a bag of rice (or loaf of bread) will be astronomically expensive. That's the down side of viewing silver and/or gold as an investment. Unlike holding AAPL from $15 to $400, there's no real way to beat inflation and hyperinflation. Precious metals will allow me to retain buying power and not lose to inflation. That's the reality. (The other reality is to own farm land and live off the grid, but that's not an option for most of us, is it?)

That's why I don't automatically assume AGQ runs to $382 when spot silver returns to $50. The landscape constantly changes, and so will price action. But, if the rubber band effect of my fantasy is realized, I'll enjoy some relief in knowing that it was wise to be proactive.

Let them have it


8:26 am (Hawaii) It's times like this, when I'm still lying in bed, a cool breeze blowing through and a warm Hawaiian sun rising above the mountains that I feel thankful. Especially when the market is sometimes puzzling, as it has been this week. But I'm at peace for one reason: I didn't have any conviction about direction and stayed out of the game.

When the Swiss National Bank devalued the Franc yesterday, it could have (should have?) been bullish for gold. Instead, the Franc lost 10% (no surprise) and gold swooned. Brother Turd Ferguson explained this morning that it's the SNB that is playing the yellow metal like a seasoned poker player using a rigged deck. So, until the selling in gold ceases — Turd sees a dip to 1750 or even 1675 — what to do? Turd advises sitting out.

Sitting out is fine for an uber-bull, which I'm not. I'm no bear on gold or silver, but I don't trust the puppeteers, whether they be CME mafia or SNB. I'd rather wade into the fiery river of paper gold and paper silver when a multitude of factors are in my favor. Not just one or two, but many factors. Otherwise, I'm just fine laying here and studying events and the twists and turns from afar.

An agnostic or bear would've stepped in by now to ride gold down via puts, shorts on paper gold, or an ETF like DZZ. Or ZSL (silver ultra bear). I mentioned recently that the downside effect of DGP at 60 or AGQ at 200, or FAZ at 55, even 50 would whet my appetite again. Right now, we have DGP at 66.33, AGQ at 223.03 and FAZ at 55.08.

The Dow Jones is +253, right about at the high of the day. AAPL was up 1.5% yesterday, which I noted as a possible tell for the market. Sure enough, AAPL is up another 1.3% and pulling the market up with it. This is bizarro, of course. AAPL at 384 is still rather cheap based on fundamentals. But with so many companies ready to announce lower expectations for Q3 and Q4, this move up by the indices is purely technical and I suspect owned by the space alien HFT machinery.

I don't bemoan these algo computers. I just stay out of their way unless I'm brainy enough to anticipate the next move, then plant my seeds accordingly. A genius like Le Fly was buying in yesterday, dumping his bear trades along the way. He has his own set of indicators (the PPT) and it has worked quite well for him (and his subscribers) from what I've seen over the past year or so.

As for gold, with the margin requirement hike in China over the weekend, plus the SNB/gold shenanigans, that's far too much to overcome for peon traders (like me) if we are strictly on the bull side of the battle. If spot gold returns to 1725, as Turd says, then it's not far away. After hitting 1920 overnight on Monday, then dipping below 1800 today, another 75 points down could happen in the next 12 hours.

In other words, it's probably too late to trade on the bear side at this point. Fine with me. My guess is that the monster machines will read the chart, as it did with FAZ on the recent massive gap up, and take DZZ higher tomorrow. The shorts will ride this out further and lower as DZZ makes traders more fiat. But like FAZ and most gap-up plays in this murderous market, the run will be done soon enough.

Today's gap higher on strong volume will unlikely be followed by a change in direction overnight. Intraday tomorrow is another story. Spot gold went from a one-time high of 1818 to 1700 in days. The recent high of 1917 was met by a steep decline (to 1700), and was topped by the run to 1920 on Monday. If today's slide to just below 1800 proves to be support, so be it. If not, cheaper entry points will be welcome. I'm not trying to time the bottom and be perfect. It's just good to be aware on a pristine autumn morning in my favorite place in the world.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 200 am HST)

Utrecht Astronomy Library

11:14 am (Hawaii) What a wacky few hours. I saw the Dow Jones go from -200 to -140 or so, back to -200, then to -100. Whatever. The machines are in charge, as usual. But to see AAPL finish the day up 1.5% ... if you believe that the market follows its leaders, is this a positive for the bulls?


With the Euro and dollar up on the bizarro move by the Swiss to dive headfirst into the Euro Pool of Vomit (not to be confused with the Dollar Barf-O-Rama), is there any question that puppetry is alive and well in the Western world? I'm watching from afar, content to remain all cash in this ghetto palace of horrors. When FAZ returns to 55 or 50, I'll follow my nose into the stench of bankster sewage. By then, DGP might be down to 60 and AGQ could be sub-200. Then it gets real interesting.


Blogs
(new) SRSrocco: Frustration with gold-silver analysts (Sept 7)
"James Turk, Rick Rule and John Embry fail to understand the FALLING EROI and its impact on mining going forward. A good percentage of Junior Explorers will never reach the commercial mining stage due to the collapse of the world's financial system, declining ore grades and the falling EROI."
(new) SGS: CFTC Bart Chilton ready to take the stand? (Sept 6)
"Something struck Harvey today, and he spilled the beans."
(new) Le Fly: In big at the end (Sept 6)
"The shadows near my favorite urinal started talking to me late in the day, insisting that I sell my TZA and indeud replace it with egregious amounts of TNA and FL."
(new) Le Fly: Having trouble buying here (Sept 6)
"I am very much interested in going long here. However, I musn't betray my disciplines, buying into names that are in danger of an EPS cut."
(new) Le Fly: Pardon my lack of enthusiasm (Sept 6)

"I never besmirch my fellow investor for trading the tape in front of him. However, you can't go around acting like you have a dog's brain, either. For once, why don't you get ahead of the curve and quit picking up the scraps? ... With the Swiss Franc getting obliterated, thanks to the peg, I'd avoid gold as if it were the Black Death itself. There is a bubble in non-risk assets."
(new) Jake Gint: From my cold, dead hands (Sept 6)
"I believe lovely Skiffles (SKF) is a longer term hold here. ... I'm not even 50% invested in Skiffles, and this is going to be the death trade going forward, by the hammers of Thor and the jockstrap of Odin."
(new) Jake Gint: Where's the safe bet? (Sept 6
"I don't believe SLV and GLD are 'false flag' operations. ... I could be incredibly naive, but I trust the current rule of law enough to believe the audits of these depositories are valid."
Dan Norcini: Daily Comments (Sept 6)
"Have you notice by now that the only thing Central Banks these days seem to be providing is more confusion, uncertainty and volatility?"
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Even the powerful Swiss Franc gets debased (Sept 6)
"There is not one paper asset in the world that will survive when the dollar collapses. This single largest event in human history will decimate all paper assets, as we finally learn what counter party risk means."
"I promised you on Saturday, that we would get an extreme volatile day today and the bankers threw everything at the gold/silver Comex trying to quell demand. The Swiss tried to stop its currency from being a safe haven by basically pegging it to the Euro. That leaves gold and silver as the last bastion for safe haven status."
Turd Ferguson: (am) Three great ZH reads (Sept 6)
Bruce Krasting: On the Swiss move (Sept 6)
"Do the Swiss have the will to take this fight to the bitter end? Are they so stupid to think that the floor on the Franc has no risk attached to it?"
"As for the amount of times the idiots will need to realize that QE3 coupled with the SNB action means that gold is now valued somewhere well over $2000: at least a few days."
"Nixon had no choice but to jettison paying trade debt in $35/ounce gold. With huge structural deficits required to soak up the surplus production of the free world, the gold would soon be gone and so would the U.S. market for allies' goods."
Economic Collapse: Euroland financial system doomed: 20 quotes from Euro leaders (Sept 6)
"76 percent of Germans say that they have little or no faith in the euro and one recent poll found that German voters are against the introduction of "Eurobonds" by about a 5 to 1 margin."
"The Chinese and other Treasury holders will likely use the Fed bid as an opportunity to dump big blocks of their holdings into the market, as they continue to make good on their publicly stated promise to diversify away from holding U.S. dollars."
DTOM: The looting of America: Command Center Wallshington (Sept 6)
"In the early 1990's, Catherine Austin Fitts' company developed software programs that ... moved people off public assistance into productive jobs. Problem: this ruffled the feathers of corporate insiders who were making easy money from their rigged bidding monopoly."
"We are creating that type of pattern where we are really going to start accelerating higher over the next quarter. Silver will take out the $50 highs and will go pushing into the mid 60's."
"Participants will shortly be able to go buy gold on the Pan Asia Exchange, knowing it is backed 100% by physical metal. This is China's way of bringing the RMB into the international market over time as a reserve currency."
Turd Ferguson: (am) I hope you're ready (Sept 6)
"There is no double-top. That talk is all EE-inspired nonsense. Remember, the Forces of Darkness will always attempt to create selling by painting double-tops, reverse H&Ss, ORDs, etc. Do not fall for this foolishness. Gold is going higher.
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): The meek shall inherit the earth (Sept 6)
"When the dollar collapses, I will be looking forward to communities that will attract the best and brightest to start a new future. These communities will have low taxes and regulations and appreciate the wealth and intellect that it took to invest in precious metals when the world was drunk on the dollar."
Business Insider: Nomura on what the big Swiss move means for gold (Sept 6)
"CHF's appeal as a safe haven is diminishing given the SNB's attempts to weaken the currency. Hence, we could see a situation where gold strengthens and CHF weakens going forward."
"Big banks and their attorneys are more likely to pursue what insiders describe as an all out war strategy in which they go after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
"Respect the risks, as well as a potential catalyst tomorrow (German vote)."
"The costs of supporting weak member states, particularly from the German perspective, are less than the costs of disintegration. It is a dangerous illusion to believe that a country could do better should it reclaim the sovereignty it has delegated to the EU."
"This why gold's relentless upside advance continues to surprise so many market observers, they don't understand the power of phase II. The manic phase II lies in the distance somewhere."
"One should be foolish to expect anything good anytime soon when all stimulus has been withdrawn, and austerity mode is full ON. The most significant development in the last days is not in the stock market, but in the PIIGS crisis again."
Andrew Cockburn: How the Teamsters beat Goldman Sachs (Jan 8 2010)
The union made it clear that they were prepared to name names. ... Goldman proved unwilling to be charged with throwing 30,000 truckers out of work. The bank not only caved, but offered its help.
Vlogs
(new) manoftruth: Gold hits $1922, where to next? (Sept 6)
Endless Mountain: The Silver Log (Sept 6)
Endless Mountain: Swiss Franc volatility (Sept 6)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Gold and silver report (Sept 6)
Christopher Greene: Stage 2 of the economic collapse (Sept 6)
H1INC: Gold to silver ratio (Sept 6)
wepollock: Physical world cascade (Sept 6)
george4title: Why voting doesn't matter (Sept 6)
george4vlogging: Intro to fasting (Sept 6)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Silver to go stratospheric? (Sept 5)

Audio

Blog commentary
EconFreeFall: Western vs Asian Advice (Sept 6)

Book
Ferdinand Lips: Gold Wars (2001)
> The battled against sound money as seen from a Swiss perspective

Reports
Gartman said he regretted ditching two-thirds of his position when gold broke the $1,900/ounce barrier but has replaced half those positions since.

Video
International Business Times: Peter Schiff (Sept 6)



One of my faithful companions


Cheese photo: Derdutchman.wordpress.com


Pains of labor


7:18 am (Hawaii) Slept in early and still didn't get up until 6:30 am. If I hadn't been all cash, it would've been alarm-clock-get-up-at-1:55 am time. And it would've been nuts if I'd held FAZ over the long Labor Day weekend. FAZ went from 60+ on Friday to 66+ this morning and has since dipped back below 64. That's quite a run from a recent low of 50. You had to know it would eventually start running hard to 100, even with a u-turn or two along the way to 55 or 50. The US govt lawsuit against the big banksters just put this FAZ move into warp drive.

I expected the banksters to make a tricky maneuver over the long weekend. Nothing really happened except this: the Swiss diving into the pool of piranhas and sharks with the Euro. Why are the Swiss going against all logic and sacrificing their Francs? Are they being bullied behind the scenes by Euroland?

Swiss: So what's this meeting about?
Greece: Nothing much. You're looking so healthy and young.
Swiss: Yeah. Right. So what is this about?
Germany: Come here.
Swiss: We can talk right here at the table.
Germany: No, let's get some fresh air outside.
Swiss: You're not going to smoke, are you?
Germany: Come along.

Outside on the porch...
Germany: Swissie, you do know the predicament we are in?
Swiss: We?
Germany: Cut the bullshit. I'm about to have civil unrest because of all these bankrupt neighbors. It's not like I can move to a nicer location. I'm stuck.
Swiss: Yes, this is quite a problem you have.
Germany: I'm stuck as long as I'm the only reasonably solvent player on the block.
Swiss: What about your buddy, France?
Germany: Don't fuck with me.
Swiss: Woo so moody.
Germany: I am sorry. I'm cranky these days.
Swiss: Yes, you are trapped.
Germany: Need you to toss a lifeline, my old friend.
Swiss: Me?
Germany: We're asking you nicely.
Swiss: Oh not that again.
Germany: What?
Swiss: You guys just take my kindness for weakness.
Germany: We should work together on this. If I have to deal with hooligans in my country, it would destroy us. So my natural alternative is to seek your help.
Swiss: My Francs!
Germany: We can do this nicely, or ...
Swiss: You bitch.
Germany: I know, I know. It's an ugly thing. Can you blame me?
Swiss: Shit. (long pause) Can I have one of your cigs?
Germany: Of course, my friend. Take the whole pack.

Simplified, yes. But it ain't that complicated, either. Euro goes up. Dollar follows. Markets sell down. Precious metals take a hit. But it will be temporary. Poisonous, toxic assets do not disappear overnight.

And there goes FAZ, back up to 64.32. Dare I step in here? Think I'll wait this one out.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Beyond the laws of nature



10:33 pm (Hawaii) Can there still be, in any way, any doubt that the CME mafia is out in full force overseas tonight? They can try to pull all the puppet strings they can, but the longer they try to shackle price, the more coiled the snapback becomes.