CNET: Apple teases WWDC 2012 with iOS6 banner (June 8)
AP: Central Asia bloc gives Afghans observer status (June 7)
Friday, June 8, 2012
Weekend cinema & library
CNET: Apple teases WWDC 2012 with iOS6 banner (June 8)
AP: Central Asia bloc gives Afghans observer status (June 7)
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Status quo
On the road again and it's nice to be out of the traffic mess and snarl, the craziness of people in tight quarters. No, out here it's quiet, less traffic and even with a job to do, I can relax almost instantly. Catching up with today's price action. China cut interest rate, but Bernanke was predictably stoic after a huge two-day run-up in the market. Don't forget the bullish comments coming out of Fed bankers recently, and Bernanke had to stay quiet, ie douse the flames with a sprinkling of cold water.
Would've been profitable to short financials after the open today via FAZ, but I was asleep at 3:30 am and later was on the road. It's looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, though this one is completely attached by umbilical cord to monetary easing (or not) and Eurozone politics. That's what makes it difficult to hold FAZ overnight. Had I tried this yesterday, I would've started today's session down an full buck. Not worth the risk.
Looks like a lot of jibber-jabber on the way from people like Fed bankers, and that'll make for a lot of useless running in place between now and those key Eurozone elections in about 10 days. Just enough time to really take a deep breath and enjoy the view.
Would've been profitable to short financials after the open today via FAZ, but I was asleep at 3:30 am and later was on the road. It's looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, though this one is completely attached by umbilical cord to monetary easing (or not) and Eurozone politics. That's what makes it difficult to hold FAZ overnight. Had I tried this yesterday, I would've started today's session down an full buck. Not worth the risk.
Looks like a lot of jibber-jabber on the way from people like Fed bankers, and that'll make for a lot of useless running in place between now and those key Eurozone elections in about 10 days. Just enough time to really take a deep breath and enjoy the view.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Wednesday cinema & library (updated)
Abigail Doolittle: Runaway day likely to fail (June 6)
Keiser Report: Paper money collapse (June 5)
David Fry: Big Wednesday short squeeze (June 7)
The Guardian: Spain calls for new tax pact to save euro (June 6)
Wall Street Journal: Lockhart says Fed must stand ready to provide more support (June 6)
CNBC: Market's fate 'in Bernanke's hands' (June 6)
Le Fly: 'We are going the fuck higher' (June 6)
Reuters: Fed more upbeat on economy in Beige Book (June 6)
Turd Ferguson: 'DO NOT be surprised by a dip/profit-taking' in metals (June 6)
Financial Post: Gartman admits he made bad call on gold (June 6)
Barron's: Hedge funds have gotten extremely bearish (June 6)
Scott Bleier: Pressure valve day (June 6)
Forbes: JPMorgan's other messy problem: MF Global's missing money (June 4)
Forbes: JPMorgan's other messy problem: MF Global's missing money (June 4)
Jim Rogers: 'Please get worried' (June 4)
Idling and parking (updated)
8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.
DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.
Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.
I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.
Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.
Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.
DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.
Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.
I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.
Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.
Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.
Monday, June 4, 2012
Monday night library & cinema
Reuters: Spain says market are closing to it as G7 confers (June 5)
Lucas Krupinski: Take a pass on leveraged ETFs (June 5)
Sam Ro: Barclays says a 1980-style market rally is on the table (June 5)
Nicole Foss: 2008 was practice run compared to what comes next (June 4)
Tyler Durden: China purchases record 100 tons of gold in April from Hong Kong (June 4)
Tyler Durden: Now, courtesy of Bridgewater... it's Italy's turn (June 4)
Kenneth Schortgen Jr: Market rumor - Pimco, JPMorgan halt vacations to prepare for economic crash (June 3)
Reggie Middleton: Dead bank deja vu? (June 1)
Dan Norcini: The futility of QE (June 1)
CNBC: Kaminsky accuses Morgan Stanley of painting the tape (June 4)
Friday, June 1, 2012
Weekend cinema & library (updated)
Bokor Mountain Church, Cambodia
Le Fly/iBankCoin: Germany's third World War (June 3)
Scott Bleier/iBankCoin: Growth at any cost? (June 3)
Business Insider: Soros reveals exact moment Merkel started Euro collapse (June 2)
Business Insider: Former hedge funder presents terrifying version of end game (June 2)
Bloomberg: Merkel rejects debt sharing (June 2)
Reuters: Funds pull out of commodities, most bearish since end-2011 (June 1)
Zero Hedge: 'The End Game' (June 1)
Zero Hedge: The deer is back (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Santelli and Kaminsky on broken rules, unpredictability, deleveraging (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Sorry folks, QE3 ain't coming, even the Fed doves admit it (June 1)
News trumps all
7:50 am (Hawaii) I've been disgusted with myself all week, which is no way to prepare for the market. Heck, in that mindset, it would've been best to leave home for awhile, get outside and get some clarity, which I did a few times. It's not the amount in trading losses that bothered me; it was relatively fractional. It was the whipsaw nature of price action and my inability — or unwillingness — to respect the lack of direction.
But I was all cash most of the week after the close, and that game plan was best. Though I wasn't long FAZ overnight, I wasn't long the market either and this -247 point move in the Dow comes on the back end of these negative PMI numbers across the world in the past 36 hours. It's tempting to go short (via FAZ or TVIX), but the risk here is that with all the bad news absorbed, and Obama done speaking (the indices dove again as he began), the market is done puking for the time being.
DJ -2%
Nasdaq -2.6%
S&P -2.3%
Overnight futures were at -110 before I hit the sack, so getting up to see this isn't a major shock. But gold is UP. DGP is +8.2%. AAPL is down 2.5% ($14) to 563. Even some of the stocks that had been resilient, like JACK, are down more than 4%.
The strange thing is, volume is SO LOW. In some cases, it is miniscule. So is this a true capitulation move even without volume? Maybe there are simply no sellers left and this really is the bottom. But I'm not willing to go long here. Not yet.
Update 8:13 am In FAZ at 29.75.
Update 8:20 am Out FAZ 29.62. It was up to 29.83 and topped out. Should've protected myself and stopped out (manual) for break-even. Tiny loss, but it's the principle. During that intraday top by FAZ, AAPL bottomed at 560.52. AAPL now 562.50, FAZ at 29.50. Anything with a gain over 10% like FAZ is due to sell off, no surprise.
But I was all cash most of the week after the close, and that game plan was best. Though I wasn't long FAZ overnight, I wasn't long the market either and this -247 point move in the Dow comes on the back end of these negative PMI numbers across the world in the past 36 hours. It's tempting to go short (via FAZ or TVIX), but the risk here is that with all the bad news absorbed, and Obama done speaking (the indices dove again as he began), the market is done puking for the time being.
DJ -2%
Nasdaq -2.6%
S&P -2.3%
Overnight futures were at -110 before I hit the sack, so getting up to see this isn't a major shock. But gold is UP. DGP is +8.2%. AAPL is down 2.5% ($14) to 563. Even some of the stocks that had been resilient, like JACK, are down more than 4%.
The strange thing is, volume is SO LOW. In some cases, it is miniscule. So is this a true capitulation move even without volume? Maybe there are simply no sellers left and this really is the bottom. But I'm not willing to go long here. Not yet.
Update 8:13 am In FAZ at 29.75.
Update 8:20 am Out FAZ 29.62. It was up to 29.83 and topped out. Should've protected myself and stopped out (manual) for break-even. Tiny loss, but it's the principle. During that intraday top by FAZ, AAPL bottomed at 560.52. AAPL now 562.50, FAZ at 29.50. Anything with a gain over 10% like FAZ is due to sell off, no surprise.
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