Thursday, February 24, 2011

Skittish you are



The market is looking quite uncertain this morning. It began with crude oil futures spiking over 102, then brought back to 99 by the opening bell. I'm looking for a retrace by UCO to 12.87 (50% of today's premarket gain) before I dip in. I got lots of rest overnight, even with the aches and threat of a bad flu. Show must go on.

There are equities in the green — MOS, GLD, X, FCX. Also some big NASDAQ names like AAPL, AMZN, BIDU. An AAPL retrace to 343.98 is interesting (currently 343.53). And UCO is bouncing off 12.80 now.

SLW got knocked down this morning as silver futures took a big hit just before the opening bell. Funny how that happens.

Update: 5:20 am (Hawaii). UCO nosediving a bit here, now 12.74. Immediate support at 12.67, also support at 11.60, but if this fills the gap from the past week, it could sink as low as 11.

Update, 1:26 pm (Hawaii). Just woke up a few minutes ago, catching up on today's moves. Holy crude. UCO hovered in the 12.80s until 2:01 pm Eastern, then fell off a cliff and didn't stop until 11.91 90 minutes later. (Now trading at 12.22 AH.) Brutal. I'm thankful that I stayed out of the market. Again. Fast Money saying that margins were increased, that this made a huge difference, more than the terror in Libya, the assurances of the Saudis, etc.

Also amazing to see SLW drop even lower than it was when I fell asleep. LOD was 38.38, now at 38.60 AH. SLV, which I no longer trust, began its decline at 2:13 Eastern — 12 minutes after UCO nosedived — and went from 32.44 to 30.95 by 3:18 pm Eastern. Now at 32.55 AH.

Market finished generally flat. DJ -0.3%, S&P -0.1%, NASDAQ +0.55%. AAPL, AMZN, BIDU fractionally up. AAPL was lingering at its LOD 338 when it began its rally — roughly 2 pm Eastern. So, as oil and metals went down, AAPL soared to 343 in almost a straight line. AAPL is at 342.98 in AH.

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