I would never Fib

Actually, I would and I have before — fib, as in use Fibonacci to my advantage. Maybe it's just sheer probability and numbers that convince me that I actually get close when I try to guess lows and highs. Take this morning's premarket action in AAPL.

It hit 344.90 before peon retail traders could touch it. (That would include me.) A 61.8% retrace would bring AAPL down to 342.71. So, which the rest of me wondered about getting out here — can it get any better after this run from 326 when most of the trading world is high on Obama and POMO? No, it's due for a pullback, small or large.

But as I wondered about selling, AAPL snuck below 344 and wandered about in the 344.50 area. When it dove near 344 and change, I really wanted to get out, but I kept watching. Of course, once it sank below 344, it dove warp-speed fast to 343. Then an interesting thing happened as I froze up and waited to see if this Fib would stand. Shares hit 342.50 or so, then bounced in a flurry and headed back north of 343. Trading now at 343.02 with the bid at 343.24.

My hunch before PM was that it would peak right off the bat with some typical MM gameplay, then sell off until the opening bell. I wasn't totally wrong on that but I am surprised it's holding at 343. Obama's speechgiving talent has juiced the market before, but it never lasts. Time may have come for me to just leave my AAPL position be and let QE take hold on the market as a charmer would lull a cobra.

Update, 5:11 am (Hawaii time): All the momo homerun stocks are in quicksand, well, most of them. The oddest thing might just be happening right now — money is rotating out of stuff like NFLX and into ... AAPL? Sounds weird, but on an otherwise flat day so far (45 minutes in), AAPL has stayed in the green. It lost most of its premarket gain, but is on a tear. The machines are humming and they're buying up AAPL. Glad I didn't sell. Ticker is ripping ahead at 344.40 and counting.

If everything else is basically red and AAPL is one of the few in the green, what does that bode for the rest of the day? Is AAPL due to sell off? Nothing is safe in a correction, but right now, there's no insanity in the economy and market. Not like the past two years.

Update, 5:25 am. My TV is on mute and I've been disinterested in CNBC's usual yackle (my word), so it took a tweet from the imperial Mr. Fly to inform me that the Dow is north of 12,000 now. Really, just like that, the market turned green. That only helps AAPL, which is holding its ground above 344, might crack 345. All because of ... Dow 12,000?

Really. Is it 50% psychological? Or is it really 90% psych? After all, if I trusted my numbers, I wouldn't have hesitated to add more AAPL for a quick trade when it hit 342+. But instead, like the average peeboy, I really wanted to sell. At the day's bottom. Trademark of a loser, and another dumb habit I just haven't defeated yet. But I didn't sell, so there. Progress.

AAPL now at 344.93. Now 345.00. Bada Bing!

8:00 am. Well, can't say I'm surprised. Any time Obama makes a big deal about clean(er) energy, Nat Gas stocks explode, pun intended. Of the 40 on my little "Nat Gas for Obama" watch list, 38 are in the green and most of them are 1, 2, 3, even 5+% higher right now. I suppose some savvy traders jumped in yesterday (or prior), but I'm not touching nat gas. Though clean energy is going to be real someday, it's a 25-year plan in the making (2035 is the target date for 80% clean in the US). This is capable of being a lengthy nat gas run, but when it runs out of legs, like it did last year, bagholders will be left behind, crispy and toasty.

Just doesn't have the staying power. I like AAPL.

9:19 am. Dave Fry likes to note a 2:15 (Eastern) buy program by the machines has lifted the market lately. Sheer manipulation by the Fed, he says. Fine with me. I just saw AAPL shares go bonkers for several seconds and his words came to mind. But now AAPL has dipped below 345 to 344.33, waffling as it has in this range for the past few hours. I have some thoughts about the FOMC meeting and how one odd sentence could send the market off its rails.

In the near term, AAPL has fewer potential catalysts than it's had in months. It won't take much to knock it off the hill some. And as I type that, AAPL dips below 344 and selling pressure is mounting. Probably better off getting some sleep.

9:29 am. On CNBC: FOMC: RETAINS PLEDGE TO KEEP RATES EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FOR "EXTENDED PERIOD"

And AAPL bounces from 343.90 to 344.49 in a split second. Still waffling, but it's no-news-is-good-news. Now let's see if AAPL can close above resistance (345+).