12 pm (Hawaii) So is this it? Has the end-of-month/end-of-quarter window dressing begun? When I hit the sack around 5 or 6 am Hawaii time (noonish Eastern), it seemed the market was going to drift in small currents forever. Of course, nothing stays the same in the market for long. The market went bozo bullish as I slept, sending 75% of my watch list to the green side after being inept earlier.
DJIA 12,279 (+0.67%), Nasdaq 2,756 (+0.96%), S&P 500 1,319 (+0.71%). Again, volume wasn't impressive, but it was about 20% higher in the "axis" of stocks, AAPL. Monday was a low in volume for the year. Tuesday saw more action. Wednesday is the 30th of March and Thursday is the end of the month. I'd say odds are 70% that window dressing has begun. By that math, the edge is 40% (70 vs. 30), but am I willing to indulge myself with 40% of my roll in play? Or to be risk-addicted about it, place some bets that allow for 40% swing down? Yes to the former and no the latter. We're still somewhat toppy here and the chances of a) a selloff after window dressing and b) negative news about QE3 would easily send the market down the mountain like a wild eagle pushing goats off the ledge.
For now, however, just about everything finished green today, and big on the win side. WNR gained 1.9% to 17.10 after being in red early. Le Fly wins again on his call for oil refiners to slice through any market turmoil. He's right.
AAPL, which sold off to a hair above 346 early, is at 351.30 in afterhours trading. My position in AAPL at the end of last week was opened at 346.75 and I sold at 350.65, which clearly is a range within the larger range (326 to 365). There are too many AAPL bulls who want this stock to lift, for the PE to hit 25 or 27 or 30, and that would be fair. But with the slowdown due to Japan's tragedy, I really don't see any eye-popping sales numbers in the near term. Demand huge, but customers will have to wait. AAPL will be fine long term, but it just won't hit 400 as soon as I or anyone else had expected.
This is not a bad thing. I could buy at 345 (mid-point of the larger range) and sell at 350 over and over again without extreme concern over risk. I didn't do it today, but it's there. What other stock are you going to ride as comfortably? CHGS? LULU?
CHGS 3.54 (+20.4%), MCP 60.10 (+8.3%), CLNE 15.20 (+4.8%), LULU 89.37 (4.8%), CMG 268.00 (+3.9%), RLOC 20.55 (+3.2%), VLO 30.50 (+3.2%), AMZN 174.62 (+3.1%), EXK 9.28 (+3.1%), YZC 34.50 (+2.9%). It goes on and on. Huge gains for momo stocks. Silver plays. Even coal (YZC). China is in heat. US stocks hot, and that's with crude oil up. UCO is at 54.78 (+1.7%).
It almost didn't matter what people bought today. The bull gored every bear in sight. Big losers on my watch list were TVIX 37.49 (-5.5%), EDZ 19.12 (-3.3%), DG 30.52 (-3.1%), TZA 36.84 (-3%), VXX 29.95 (2.7%), QID 51.65 (-1.9%). Also OPEN 102.90 (-1.3%). OPEN's huge run had to stop for a breather at some point.
I wouldn't be shocked if the market reverses before tomorrow's opening bell. There's still time for hedgies to take it down fast and still re-enter before the end of the month. Unlikely, but entirely possible. I'll be waiting for a unlikely discount on my favorite plays with 100% loaded gunpowder.
No comments:
Post a Comment