This is tonight's supermoon.
(Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Mar. 19, 2011)
March 11: Not a supermoon
(photo: EarthSky)
(new) Reuters: Obama woos Brazil while Libya air assault unfolds (Mar 20 2011) The U.S. is taking a keen interest in the deep-sea oil reserves that Brazil is starting to tap off the Rio coast.
(new) CNN: Libyan ruler defiant as airstrikes by coalitoion forces enter 2nd day (Mar 20 2011)(new) iBankCoin: U.S. whores itself for Libyan oil reserves (Mar 19 2011)
Howard Lindzon: The Internet 'Black Swan' (Mar 19 2011)
Steve Blank: New rules for the new Internet bubble (Mar 18 2011)
Reuters: U.N. envoy sees military action after summit (Mar 18 2011)
Business Insider: Tepco says power line connected (Mar 18 2011)
Cain Thaler/iBankCoin: Long Uranium (Mar 18 2011)
EarthSky: Did a supermoon cause the March 11 earthquake in Japan (Mar 17 2011)
Dave Fry: Gadhafi does a head fake (Mar 18 2011)
(new) Rays of demolition
Le Fly noted that $56.9 million worth of missiles just landed in Libya. That makes Raytheon alluring. Since the Middle East madness began, RTN ran from 44 to its current range of 49-53. Maybe it opens at 54 on Monday morning.
Somebody's got to provide the weaponry
Silver Moon Madness?
I have to take a look at what happened in silver and EXK this week. I held EXK briefly on Wednesday, taking a very small loss as it stalled and slumped to 8.10. By Friday, EXK gapped up above 8.70 and closed at 9.15.
Silver futures pop through short-term resistance
EXK: Midweek consolidation?
Gap up for EXK, but still in trading range
SLW's fall from the top may have finally leveled
Where does SLW go from here?
Best guess: sideways
Sour Apple
The long swings in AAPL have been massive to the upside, but the downside can seem almost as wild.
Buy and hold? Not exactly
Buy and hold is not a great idea with AAPL at these levels. I've been in and out with moderate success over the years. Holding from 100 or 200 was great if you had the stomach for market turbulence. The past 10 days have been wickedly bad for longs. I got out a few weeks ago at 360 when rumors about Steve Jobs' health (i.e. a visit to the doctor) surfaced after hours. Since then, even with the launch of iPad 2, the stock has been bashed by hedge funds emptying out. Every gain during the past week was met by selling pressure, taking AAPL to 330 today.
50-day moving average was violated this week.
Now the 100-day MA is being tested with
200-day MA possibly next.
An 8-10% pullback from this level — another global crisis or worsening of situations in Libya or Japan — is possible. If the Steve Jobs resignation rumor is true, 10% down takes AAPL to 300, which is the next level of support. Difficult to see a plunge any lower than that, not with huge profit margins and the iPad 2 in heavy demand. Problem is, until the parts supply issue is solved (Japan), getting back to the high will happen later rather than sooner. Guess here is that best-case scenario (Jobs stays on as CEO) has AAPL trading between 326 (near-term support) and 360. Worse case: 300 to 326 until earnings (April 19).
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