Thursday, August 23, 2007

Shopping list: FLS, GOOG, NILE still good buys

For one day, I'll quit with the whining and pat myself on the back. I stuck to discipline, avoided stocks out of their moving averages and was quickly rewarded. Nintendo, which I grabbed more shares of at 55.75 yesterday, had a nice jump to 57.70 today.

Sure, NTDOY.PK simply follows the action of its big brother stock, 7974, on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. But it feels good to be under control and buy a stock at a wise entry point. It wasn't just Nintendo, of my 'Buy' and 'Strong buy' summaries yesterday, that moved up today. But first, a look at my A grade picks that were all on 'Wait' status a day ago.

AMZN 77. So many lovers, so many haters. The stock is well off both its high of 86 and last week's bottom of of 70. Like all my A and A- picks, there are great growth margins and numbers, period. Not a dud among them. But as far as an entry point goes, AMZN is still hovering above its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Today's pullback helps, but we're not there yet. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL 131. What do we call investors who have ridden Apple to a million bucks? Applionaires? I don't believe in "all in" strategies. There are just too many great growth stocks to not be diversified. But AAPL is absolutely my favorite, both in a Peter Lynchian way (I've owned a PowerBook for three years) and in a fundamental way. The stock is well above its recent bottom of 111, but a long ways from its high of 148. Today's drawback is nice, but like Amazon, the stock is still floating above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CROX 56. The pullback from yesterday's mid-day high of 60 is no surprise. Since the blowout Q2 earnings, the stock has not gone more than three days without a pullback. When the stock declined since late July, it has pulled back for two to three days in four of five occasions, including the current drop. In other words, this ain't no surprise. Volume also declined substantially today. Is this time to buy more Crocs? It's tempting, but the answer is no. CROX is still trading well above its moving averages. Some consolidation will be good for Crocs lovers. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 101. Some consolidation is going on here. The stock is up nicely from last week's bottom of 86 and closing in on the all-time high of 105. Trading above its moving averages. Bite the bullet and be patient. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 80. Like CROX, RIMM had an astounding run in the past week, from 61 to 84. This pullback is healthy and today's volume was miniscule. Just a brief breather for the hottest runner in the marathon. And yet, the stock is ridiculously out of range, well above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

The A graders all pulled back, like I expected. But they're all still better off waiting for than grabbing right now.

BIDU 203. Another sprinter has pulled up for a pit stop. One week ago, Baidu was trading below its 13- and 50-day MA. Now, its way above. A trader's fantasy, but for us long-term investors, 203 is much too high right now. Consolidation in effect. Pupule says: Wait.

CEO 115. In the words of the immortal philosophical giant, Homer Simpson, I say of CNOOC, "Dohhh!!" Loved the stock at its bottom (92). Loved it at 104 earlier this week. Still liked it at 109 yesterday. Today? Ouch. Owee. CEO gapped up before the market opened and held its ground. P/E of 11. Insanely nice. After last week's mid-day low of 92, CEO has gapped up each morning for the past five sessions. Still looks like a wild tech stock on the chart, but it's an oil and natural gas Co with huge upside in China. However, CEO now trades above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG 101. Solid consolidation here. The stock went from a post-earnings high of 114 down to a mortage-meltdown bottom of 92. At 101, the stock is trading at the high end of its 13-day MA. Tiny volume today. I think the stock is ready to move again, but this ain't cheap. A great shopper hunts for cheap. Pupule says: Wait.

FLS 69. Great earnings didn't help the stock much during last week's meltdown. Still, Flowserve is rising from last week's low of 62. The high of 79 is still a long way off, and the stock is trading at the lower edge of its 13- and 50-day MA. Up today just 71¢. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 512. The company is in partnership mode in China, which is a great thing for longs. These guys don't screw around. Mistakes happen, but most of the time, Google wins the hunt. I wonder how long Baidu can fend off the Googmonster. Stock is in the midst of its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy.

NILE 82. Nice and easy, compared to wild and crazy when the Co announced incredible earnings for Q2. Stock is nowhere near its high of 98 and now trades near the high side of its moving averages. Gotta feeling this won't stay cheap for much longer. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK 57. The stock has been the slowest to rebound in the past week, but today's 2% move to 57.75 makes me (and my nephew) happy. It was a fair buy yesterday when I got more shares. Today? The stock is now above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

POT 85. I remember listening to Potash's CEO talk on Mad Money and came away thinking ... what if ethanol bombs out in the next year? That was a few months ago, and POT blew out the Q2 estimates. The stock pulled back today, but after hitting a bottom of 71 last week, a pit stop is timely. Below its MA last week, above its MA today. Pupule says: Wait.

UA 64. Trades with some similarity to CROX. UA has traded down two days in a row, but shrinking volume is a tell. Won't surprise me if UA rockets tomorrow, but I'm not jumping in. The stock is still trading above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

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