Nat Gas update: Short-term tipping point?

What goes up must come down unless it's March of 2009 or pre-Internet bubble bursting time. Bull runs can outlast even the most extravagant projections of uber-bulls and squash the testicles of the biggest bears. But last year's run was powered by the Fed stimulus program, among other free-now-but-punishing-to-all-later maneuvers.

For now, it's time to look at my Nat Gas 40. It's fun to see their gains, even if I have not a single position in any. Besides, things are just frothy enough here in the 12 days since Obama's clean energy speech (and his anti-BP chatter today) to possibly mark a short-term top in one of the hottest sectors.

These 40 natty gassers include today's closing price and the gain since Obama's speech 12 days ago, and the candlestick chart analysis. Interesting that the only two that got "Sell Confirmed" status today are among my least favorite issues. 

My Favorite 5:
CLNE 18.17 (+22.39%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
HGT 21.59 (+11.29%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PSE 25.15 (+4.44%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
SWN 44.99 (+13.04%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
WPRT 19.42 (+32.2%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)

Natty Gassers I like, though they lack strong balance sheets:
BEXP 18.96 (+9.23%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
CHK 25.36 (+11.28%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
DIG (etf) 31.13 (+13.49%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
FCG (etf) 18.05 (+10.80%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
FST 32.19 (+18.26%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
HK 21.67 (+16.63%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
KOG 3.62 (+13.48%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
KWK 13.81 (+23.3%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
MMR 11.99 (+16.52%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NBL 66.45 (+12.51%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NFX 57.05 (+14.21%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NGS 17.25 (+12.09%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
PETD 26.60 (+27.7%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PQ 7.96 (+27.97%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
PVA 24.78 (+13.36%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PXJ 15.93 (+11.01%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
REXX 11.97 (+15.88%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
ROSE 26.21 (+19.9%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
STR 49.88 (+13.16%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
TLM 17.78 (+5.52%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
UNG (etf) 8.83 (+17.89%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
UPL 50.04 (+1.73%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
XOP 44.15 (+8%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)

Several of these natty gassers are hot, but fundamentally are mediocre:
BRNC 4.00 (+14.94%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
COG 38.41 (+11.24%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
CRK 33.53 (+15.34%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
CRZO 20.24 (16.66%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
DPTR 1.16 (+2.65%) — "Sell Confirmed" (American Bulls)
FTK 1.44 (+8.27%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
GDP 15.29 (27.1%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
HERO 3.19 (+23.17%) — "Buy Confirmed" (American Bulls)
IEO 55.20 (+9.13%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
RRC 50.83 (+8.63%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
VNR 22.46 (+5.74) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
XCO 18.88 (+8.07%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
XTO 44.23 (+4.44%) — "Wait" (American Bulls)

Of the Nat Gas 40, only one was a "Buy Confirmed" today. Just three are on "Buy If" status.

On a neutral front, 22 are on "Hold" and only one is a "Wait".

12 are "Sell If" status and one was "Sell Confirmed" today.

Today may have been the tipping point for the sector in the near term. For short-term traders, it's time to start scaling out a bit. For long-term nat gas believers, no need to get out yet barring a broad market puke party. There's a nice climb ahead as long as A) Obama continues preaching to the choir of energy worriers and B) we have live video of Mother Earth's blood spewing out of the Gulf.