Mind over matter?

There are percentage plays and there is gut instinct.

I have to say, gut instinct doesn't usually pan out in the free market. That's why numbers rule, and I like numbers. I got out of Citi twice in the last two sessions with profits, the kind that could sustain a household if it came so consistently over time. I know, regardless of how good or bad tomorrow's earnings report is, C could hit a low and recover -- because Uncle Sam has said that the major banks will not be permitted to close shop.

Yet, I had my cursor on the sell order button at 1:59 HST for my swing position, which is essentially 3/4ths of my total shares in C. The thought was that the remaining shares would be "free," the assets that are house money. Worst-case scenario, I still break even. Best case, make money without risk. It was the smart thing to do, minimizing risk on one of the two most beaten-down bank stocks going into tomorrow morning.

I pulled back, though, after mulling over it for 30 minutes, watching the after-hours trade dangle from 4.02 to 4.06 to 4.13 and finally, between 4.09 and 4.12 in the last several minutes. I know the Fed is being held more accountable for its strategy to save the financials, and in essence, the foundation of the economy -- avoiding the potential disaster of unprecedented foreclosures. That's the main reason I kept those shares, even though by selling them after hours I would've secured yet another profit and decent gain (five to eight cents a share) in a short 2-3 hours.

Gut instinct and a bit of logic went into this decision, though I hope to say later that almost all my trades were based on logic. Pure logic. I'm up 32 percent in the past month, ahead like many traders and investors in this bullish run. It could evaporate real quick come 2:30 a.m. Hawaii time. Or it could run loose like a federally-protected entity probably should.