Pupule portfolio

Twenty of my Top 25 stocks are now trading below their 50-day simple moving averages. That's a whopping percentage, especially compared to two weeks ago, when only eight were below the 50-day SMA. 

More additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08



GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7.08



MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08



NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

Top 25: Ins and Outs

Wooooo ... first June Jones leaves my favorite football team (Hawaii), and then the market goes into a wall at 100 mph.

No way to pick a bottom, but for the faux portfolio, prices are appealing.

1. AAPL 177.64 -2.41 (-1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 183.10 | 100-day SMA: 165.52
Today's volume in the selloff was massive, and yet, MacWorld looms closer.
2. GOOG 649.25 -7.75 (-1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 684.25 | 100-day SMA: 622.63
Could test that 620 support again.
3. RIMM 99.83 -3.52 (-3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.34 | 100-day SMA: 103.41 | 200-day SMA: 80.45
No reason or rhyme to this stock. Until today, It hadn't been below it's 100-day SMA since early May at 45.
4. ISRG 299.98 -5.02 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 313.61 | 100-day SMA: 272.50
Slightly increasing volume on today's ISRG selloff. Not a ton of sellers here.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 139.41 -3.24 (-2.3%) | 50-day SMA: 124.17
This has a long way to go before it's cheap.
7. CHL 85.22 +1.34 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 89.58 | 100-day SMA: 82.14
One of the few stocks to climb today. Still a fair price here.
8. PTR 177.15 +1.15 (+0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 197.92 | 100-day SMA: 185.17 | 200-day SMA: 158.07
Nearly 100 down from its high.
9. FSLR 236.84 -8.74 (-3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 217.24
Like Potash, First Solar is nowhere near being cheap.
10. MCD 58.03 +0.98 (+1.7%) | 50-day SMA: 58.65 | 100-day SMA: 55.26
Recession-proof? Maybe. But today's announcement sends Mickey D into an all-out war against Starbucks.

11. STP 74.96 -6.88 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 72.17
Huge drop today, but still not a bargain.
12. CMG 123.98 -3.03 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.78 | 100-day SMA: 124.30 | 200-day SMA: 102.30
Maybe they should start selling lattes and cappucinos in the Chipotle Cafe.
13. BIDU 344.31 -16.69 (-4.6%) | 50-day SMA: 367.66 | 100-day SMA: 315.47
Six down days in a row, and today's volume was higher. Is the selloff done?
14. FWLT 149.94 -9.75 (-6.1%) | 50-day SMA: 150.57 | 100-day SMA: 138.61
Getting interesting here.
15. FLS 90.50 -2.70 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 91.96 | 100-day SMA: 83.07
Also interesting here.
16. FMCN 56.14 +0.43 (+0.8) | 50-day SMA: 56.97 | 100-day SMA: 53.01
Flat day, average volume for Focus Media.
17. GS 194.73 -5.20 (-2.6%) | 50-day SMA: 218.19 | 100-day SMA: 209.75 | 200-day SMA: 212.14
Could we see GS at 160 again?
18. NKE 62.11 +0.37 (+0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 64.04 | 100-day SMA: 60.94
Tempting here. Nike's growth overseas, particularly in China, makes this compelling.
19. CEO 171.27 +0.77 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.21 | 100-day SMA: 160.59
Trading in tandem with PTR to some extent, leveling out here.
20. VMW 72.99 -7.50 (-9.3%) | 50-day SMA: 92.93 | 100-day SMA: 87.26
Support level here. Stay tuned.

21. LULU 38.45 -2.09 (-5.1%) | 50-day SMA: 43.60 | 100-day SMA: 42.08
Robust sales last quarter. Will yoga apparel revenues be hit?
22. MSFT 34.61 +0.23 (+0.67) | 50-day SMA: 34.72 | 100-day SMA: 31.93
Down from 36-plus, holding the fort here. Nice volume today.
23. AMZN 88.82 +0.03 (+0.03%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82
Not cheap here.
24. EBAY 30.44 -0.86 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.40 | 100-day SMA: 35.14 | 200-day SMA: 34.19
Still questioning why an auction site would be punished if the economy goes into a recession.
25. LFC 73.80 +0.80 (+1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 83.46 | 100-day SMA: 81.84 | 200-day SMA: 66.59
The influx of 600 'Class A' shares in the coming week hasn't scared off longs.

Pupule portfolio

Includes new additions to the faux portfolio

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

Pupule portfolio

Friday, Jan. 4 additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

Ins and Outs

Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.

Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.

How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.

1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a

6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.

11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.

16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.

21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.

On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.

Clobberin' Time!

This cold has knocked me out for several days, so I've been getting up late enough to miss virtually entire market sessions. Getting up at 11:15 a.m. (HST) today gave the chance to turn on the laptop and be shocked by the 98-point drop in the Nasdaq. Here's a stock ticker I would empathize with: "OUCH."

When I look at my "real" shares of Apple and Research in Motion, I can't help but think that a sell at the start of the year would've been wise. We all know there are investors who waited until Jan. 1 to unload shares and hold off paying the tax until 2009. But today's jobs report put a sour taste into the market, and across the board, stocks were clobbered. Only a few survived in the green, such as XM Satellite Radio.

All the traditional mettle about holding shares long pertained to the market of two or three years ago. Since then, trading in and out has been the superior methodology. Apple at 180? Why would the globe's top growth company plunge more than 10 bucks in the face of a seemingly soft recession? I see consumers choosing a Hybrid car over a gas guzzler. I see consumers spending less on expensive clothes and opting for Ross Dress for Less more. But I do not see them passing up a new iPod Touch or Macbook. People will still treat themselves when it comes to technology, especially cool tech. This is not a Depression we're seeing ahead.

My shares of RIMM are hurting, particularly my swing-trade shares. Could've sold at 122, as Pete Najarian did with his RIMM options. Who knew that RIMM would nosedive back to 103 — lower than it was pre-earnings — even on a robust earnings report and raised guidance? Ridiculous. But that's the market for you.

It's clobberin' time and only the brave will wade into the water. Reminds me of one of ABC's shows of 2006, Invasion. Anyone who got into the water was eventually attacked by a mutated, alien manta ray-like creature, and then you became a human-alien hybrid. Then the hybrid men impregnated human females (sneaky invading bastards). Doomed, doomed, doomed. Well, before we got to know exactly where civilization was headed, the show was cancelled and I was left hanging. I tend to think our economy — and the market — are in slightly better health.

Pupule portfolio

The faux portfolio moves on. Began inching into MCD, VMW, NKE today. Each with a 10% position (pyramiding). Added more CHL and EBAY (each 20% of position).

Weighted scale of $10,000 per stock
PTR • in $181.72 (55 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
GS • in $214.32 (47 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
CEO • in $167.22 (60 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
LFC • in $80.70 (124 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07

CHL • in at $84.65 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
CHL • in at 85.44 (23 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08

EBAY • in at $32.49 (30 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
EBAY • in at 32.84 (61 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08

MCD • in at 57.93 (17 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
NKE • in at 62.71 (16 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
VMW • in at 83.95 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08

I should have remembered to pyramid into PTR, GS, CEO and LFC as they've all declined since Dec. 24. Great stocks cheap. Three important words.