Got my mojo workin' (sorta)

Trader, Burma-China border

3:10 pm (Hawaii) A nice break in the work action on a sunny, hot day in the islands. I look at how I handled this week's trades and wonder, am I regaining the confidence I had a few years back? This week revealed my weaknesses en masse: Monday, rushed out of a trade in WNR, loss equalled 1% of bankroll, only to see it trade back above 18 the next day; Tuesday, a technically sound (by my parameters) and instinctive entry into SLV that netted a nice profit for a few hours of holding; Wednesday, profited from another SLV trade though overnight I was not confident at all. Later today (Wed) I quit too early on another SLV trade and took a very small loss, but it would've turned into a decent profit had I stayed firm.

For the week, I'm ahead and grade myself with a C+. But more importantly, I feel better about my decisions, even the mistakes, because I have a clearer set of goals and parameters. In my down trades, I know precisely where I failed technically. That doesn't explain why I feel some mojo returning, and I'm not going to live off a sense of overconfidence, not after all the positives and failures I've endured. But for the first time in awhile, I feel a little more in tune with the market, willing to run for cover and willing to take calculated risk more than once a month or once a week.

I may have reservations about staying in anything silverish overnight anymore, especially in the next several days, but that has nothing to do with spot silver's continued ascent. It's popping again, now an all-time high at 45.57. (That's SLV 44.45 in my conversion of -2.5%.) Holeeee crap! How much of this is genuine demand and how much of it is another round of short covering? Just about everyone deep into spot silver or some kind of silver calls is starting to refrain from further buying, or has already sold a substantial amount. So who's getting deep into the gray metal? Are the Chinese gobbling up every ounce of precious metal out there? 

Nothing that rockets like this over a sustained period of time goes on at this trajectory forever. The time will come for that pullback. But it ain't today. 

Update 3:28 pm (Hawaii) Check that. Spot silver now 45.66. 

Update 3:31 pm (Hawaii) Spot silver now 45.71!

Update 3:32 pm (Hawaii) Spot silver now 45.79. Astounded. Totally astounded. I don't even care that I'm 100% cash. This is a spectacle. 

Update 3:52 pm (Hawaii) Spot silver holding at this level, now 45.76. Despite the big jump yesterday and today, silver plays (miners) haven't been riding in the big parade with SLV, and there's talk that SLV is heavily shorted. Why would I think that JP Morgan is filling up this hot-air balloon and getting ready to pop it sometime soon? I've seen outright manipulation before, and it feeds on the exuberance of bulls. I hope SLV isn't another DNDN naked-shorts-gone-wild scenario, but it kind of feels like it. 

Update 8:07 pm (Hawaii) It's one thing to get that swagger back. It's another to recognize the potential for great gains ... and great disadvantage. Tomorrow, the last trading day of the week, and the long weekend could be a puzzle with no solution. 

• Brazil has raised interest rates

• Spot silver could easily be manipulated with markets closed for Good Friday and Easter

• Rumors of China revaluing/devaluing the yuan could be bullish for precious metals

• Rumors of massive shorting of SLV

One argument could be that the increased pressure on the US dollar (yuan, overseas rate hikes) would be the exact reason why silver and gold must be held down as long as possible, especially with spot silver going parabolic this week. More so with precious metals options expiry on Tuesday. It wouldn't take much time for the powers that be to take SLV down massively in a matter of minutes. 

What is a simple trader with mojo to do? 

Spot silver is at 45.83, not far off its high tonight (46 or so). The Asian market, or probably just China, has wolfed down a big ol' serving of silver instead of eating dollars for dinner. For those who trade according to price action spot silver and SLV have been glorious to watch and profit from. For those who are wary of some of the evil machinery that operates the "free" markets, there has been no easy ride even with a commodity that has practically gone straight up for weeks. Nobody wants to be there holding the bag. Nobody wants to be there when that plug gets pulled and the life-support machine goes quiet. 

Sometimes, though, it's just better to be dumb in this market, and lucky enough to be out when it hits the fan. 

Update 8:24 pm (Hawaii) Spot silver just pierced 46 for the first time. Now trading at 45.95. Hong Kong is buying the hell out of silver. 

Hump Day Reading Time

Trader Dan Norcini: The US bond market has become the most important market on the planet (Apr 20 2011)

Big Apple

10:36 am (Hawaii) AAPL earnings are out: $5.25 for Q3 revenue vs. 5.05. EPS $6.40 vs. 5.37 estimate. Shares now 352.49, up from the 343.02 close. On a big green day like this, it's not a certainty that AAPL will lose these afterhours gains right away. 

50% retrace of the AH gain is at 348.21. 38.2% retrace (Fibonacci) is 349.05. (AAPL topped out a few minutes ago at 353.49.) 

Update 10:47 am (Hawaii) Taking a second look at AAPL. The minute after shares hit HOD (353.49), AAPL dropped to 347.92, easily reaching a 50% retrace of the AH gain. Missed the opportunity. Currently trading at 351.50 with volume tapering off. 

Update 11:11 am (Hawaii) AAPL was at 320 just days ago. The run to 337 was stellar. But the resumption to this new post-earnings level 350 is amazing, though not shocking. Shares are still off the all-time high (365), which leaves room for ... another 15 bucks up? Tough call. No catalyst in the immediate future. 

Being 100% cash leaves me with plenty of possibilities, but frankly, I don't see a lot more upside in a lot of things right now. Silver has made its run. AAPL, too. Crude oil is at 111.43 right now and I emptied out of WNR at the wrong time with a loss (Monday). Think I'll be more of a spectator until next week, especially with spot silver. If there are shenanigans to come tonight, tomorrow or next week, I'd like to see it as it happens via the Globex/Comex live quotes. 

Update 11:50 am (Hawaii) Spot silver at 45.23, which converts to SLV 44.10. However, SLV is trading at 44.20 afterhours. It's going to come back down to the conversion price. Always does. 

AAPL tearing it up, now 356.24. A huge buying spree spiked it from 350 to 354 a few minutes ago. Missed that train. I can see AAPL trading up again tomorrow, but eventually selling off back to 349 and consolidating for awhile. I trust AAPL more than SLV at this point. 

Feels so wrong

Hi Ho Silver!

3:34 am (Hawaii) Just got back home in time for the opening bell. I'd been able to check Kitco for a spot silver price earlier and was stoked to see it at 44.75, even higher than it was overnight when an earlier check revealed spot at 44.30 or so. See, I really didn't expect spot to rise after I bought it before the closing bell yesterday. No, I expected my mistake to turn into a loss one way or another. Not a good attitude, but after making a decent profit on yesterday's earlier trade in SLV, I felt like I'd given up ground too easily: bought at 42.57, sold at 43.07; bought in again at 43.04.

Afterhours saw the price sink to 42.75 or so twice, followed by rallies back to 43.00. So this morning's sell right after the bell at 43.67 is a pleasant surprise. Why sell? I'm frank with myself and know that spot silver has risen so much in a short time; it wouldn't take too much for a major selloff. That said, few other plays in the market have as many forces behind it in good or even some bad market scenarios.

So SLV has dipped as low as 43.55, no surprise given the nice gap up. No rush here to re-enter. SLV could use some consolidation sooner or later. In the meantime, it feels odd to have a winner when I surely had made a poor decision to re-enter at such a high price. That feeling is probably warranted; SLV is just so hot, it's almost impossible not to make money on the long side.

For today, I expect a pullback today in SLV back to 43.36, or at least as low as 43.44. A dip to 43.36 represents a 50% retrace of today's gain (HOD). 43.44 would be a 38.2% retrace (Fibonacci). Very, very short-term view.

Update 4:20 am (Hawaii) Seeing should be believing. It should've been this time. I saw bids, constant huge bids, come in for SLV, while selling pressure was occasionally large, but mostly nonexistent. Yet SLV price remained stuck in the 43.60s. Once SLV rose up into the 43.70s, it rocked hard. In the 43.80s, zipped right on up almost to 43.90.

Powerful.

Turd Ferguson notes that another fall in the dollar has triggered PM mania. It would've been quite enough that the market is up. 82% of my watch list is green. But with investors turning to silver as a safe haven (44.90) and gold above the threshold (1,504), it is very much a "melt-up," as the Turdmaster says.

SLV's new HOD (43.89) means new retrace levels for me to keep an eye on: 50% = 43.45, 38.2% = 43.55. With the market so bullish and silver's unique situation with the falling dollar, I'm not expecting these retrace levels.

Update 4:40 am (Hawaii) Just 20 minutes until London trading ends. The past two sessions saw spot silver explode after London closed. Same today?

Update 5:10 am (Hawaii) The run-up in spot silver prior to the close in London was possibly what normally would happen after London's close. Anticipation maybe of a further surge, or traders in Europe were all over the spot silver buy because of the dollar decline. Hedging activity. Whatever the case, SLV has slipped from its HOD of 44.08 down to 43.94, not unexpected considering the move from 43.00 at yesterday's close. 

Interest is increasing. Kitco's spot silver quote page crashed for a minute or two as the price dipped from 45.15 to 45.04. (I saw the latter price a couple of minutes later.) Now the question is, does spot silver hold here? Or has it "jumped the shark" for today? 

Update 5:21 am (Hawaii) New retrace levels from today's high (to yesterday's close) for SLV: 38.2% = 43.67, 50% = 43.54. Not expecting either level, though. 

Please note, I like SLV strictly as a short-term trade. Lord knows what kind of devilishness will ensue in this ETF (run by the banksters) in the days and weeks to come, re: invisible physical silver in their vaults.

Update 5:34 am (Hawaii) In SLV at 43.95, out at 44.01. It ran to about 44.08 or 44.09, but couldn't pop above that HOD. Now back at 43.98. Still no clear indication that it has any fuel left with all the upside news (dollar decline) in and only precious metals expiry coming (Tuesday). The shortage of trading days due to the weekend holidays makes spot silver and silver plays especially dangerous to hold. At some point today or tomorrow, the profiteering and fear of losing gains begins.

Or not.

Update 5:47 am (Hawaii) Talk about parabolic. SLV now at 44.16. Guy Adami of Fast Money has said many times in recent weeks that the shorts on spot silver/silver stocks have gotten burned over and over, and a $5 move in one day is coming. Is today that day? 

I got out earlier on a second SLV trade at 44.01 and was about to re-enter again at 43.99, then 44.01 ... but nature called and I had to answer. Coming back to a monitor that read 44.16 on SLV was astounding. Silver continues to astound. Looking at 44.08, the previous HOD, as short-term support. Whatever that means. 

Waiting for a dip, if one comes. The post-London surge has arrived.

Update 5:53 am (Hawaii) SLV just went from 44.10 to 44.28 in less than one minute. An "oh crap!" moment indeed. I haven't seen anything like this since AAPL a year ago, afterhours, going from 240 to 270 on its earnings report. This is different; spot silver has many hours left yet to trade today. 

Update 5:59 am (Hawaii) As long as I can calculate quickly enough, I'm learning toward the spot silver/SLV conversion (1.00/.975) to help gauge entry points since stochastics simply don't measure something as thermonuclear hot as silver. Spot at 45.33 converts to SLV at 44.19. Currently, SLV is at 44.27, so I'll wait. 

Best thing would've been to sleep in and let my original position from yesterday roll higher. That's history. 

Update 6:11 am (Hawaii) First serious selling volume (1-minute chart) so far in SLV. Beware all!

SLV down to 44.15 from 44.23ish in seconds. Could be the tipping point where the dominoes fall (stop-loss orders). Selloff is quite due. Turd is looking at 42 as a possible bottom of any looming pullback. Think I'll wait this one out and take a serious look come next week. 

And there goes SLV to 44.06. Slippery slopes get slipperiest at the top. 

Update 7:04 am (Hawaii) A little bit of a trading range in SLV allowed big sellers to empty out. The past five minutes have been nasty for bulls as SLV slides from 44.20 to 43.75. Spot silver is at 44.97, which means SLV should be at 43.84. The selling is simply overdone, but what do I know. Only one exit door and the entire theater might be trying to squeeze out to safety here. 

Update 7:08 am (Hawaii) SLV now at 43.58. 

Update 7:15 am (Hawaii) The 50% retrace of today's gain in SLV has been met with full force in the past several minutes. SLV now down to 43.48 as stop-loss orders kick in, a near-total avalanche from 44.20. Is this a buying opportunity then? 

I'm holding off. I'd like SLV as a re-entry if the 50% point (43.54) had held, and it seemed to for a couple of minutes, but now ... 43.31, 43.28 and sinking. Now we revert back to other levels from the start of the most recent run. SLV closed yesterday at 43.00. That's the next near-term support level. A breach below that — which had been a recent high — and I'm looking at 42.75 as the next line of support. 

After that, 40.25 should hold. Or not. Options expiry on Tuesday, with the holiday weekend ahead, will make it tough for spot silver to hold ground, especially with reports that the most popular options pin is at 40. 

Update 8:33 am (Hawaii) Boo ... tried to get cute and ride a interday breakout from the 43.50-43.75 trading range. Despite bad stochastics (higher side) on the 1-min chart, I re-entered SLV at 43.93, and it rode down immediately. I got out at 43.85, giving back a a small chunk of the today's profit. Maddening for a few seconds, but I liked the spike in volume. I still don't like the way SLV and spot silver will play out in the next several days. Too cute. 

Update 8:55 am (Hawaii) What I think I'll do after a productive trade is get out of the house. Go for a walk. Exercise at the gym. Run at the park. Whatever competitive fuel still in me, well, that needs to be burned off before I dive back in after a winner. The market is up, the trade is done, and there's nothing more to do unless I short something, and I've never done that. 

Just noticed spot silver at 45.07, yet SLV was rallying up again. SLV was at 43.99, well over the "conversion" price of 43.93. A half-minute later, SLV was back to 43.93 like clockwork. I'm glad the conversion formula makes total sense. Now if I can get my trading habits in order ... get exercise. Clean the house. Something.

Update 10:34 am (Hawaii) So, is spot silver truly recovering from the mid-day selloff? Spot is 45.21 now. 

Or is this just a setup for a big selloff tomorrow going into metals expiry on Tuesday? 

Triggering fear sensors

5:40 am (Hawaii) In my brain, I do not expect another Flash Crash. I do not believe the Fed would allow that or any other financial catastrophe at this time. I don't believe they would knowingly allow it. And yet, the fear remains. It explains why I'm so trigger happy to sell when I'm down significantly, as was the case yesterday with WNR, and so slow to reap profits when I'm up significantly, as was the case with SLV.

By "significantly," I'm talking about roughly 1% or more of my modest bankroll. All in all, had I slept through the session and left my two positions alone, WNR would be fine. I'd be down right now just a bit (17.71 vs. my entry of 17.85) instead of selling at 17.15. And SLV would be in good shape at 42.28. I bought at 41.60 and sold at 41.70 on yesterday's wild spring and fall after the open.

Hindsight can be a bitch. So, looking forward... 45% of my watch list is green. Every dip in the past few weeks has been winnable. With US Steel topping the list (+4.3%), something positive is going on globally. Or maybe yesterday's broad selloff was a good puke to get out those unhealthy toxins and poisons.

AAPL is up fractionally to 332.83 and relatively stable. Yesterday's drop to 320+ and move up to 331 was immense. Dave Fry seemed to indicate that this "save" was orchestrated. Probably wasn't the first time. Yesterday's purge withstanding, it seems like a neutral start to the week. There's room for earnings to give the market a jolt to the upside. Global chaos remains, but isn't being force-fed via media as much as recent months.

I'm watching a few things here:

1. Silver topping. I don't think silver in the near term will crash. But it will pull back occasionally no matter what, and when those selloffs become more common, there will be consolidation, and eventually, boredom. Yes, traders get bored, and that's when a parabolic rise levels off, then sinks. Use your Fibonacci retrace or technical support levels as visual guides. I don't want to be in silver when this happens.

2. Oil topping. Obama is not going to let $5 gas happen, and I doubt $4 gas lasts forever, not until the next presidential election is done. Though I still like WNR, it trades on crude oil rather than crack spreads, which is both ridiculous and hard to swallow if you're trading it on the bull side.

3. Apple earnings momentum. It's happening before our eyes, except AAPL is closer to 330 than 360 (or 400), which is a nice, swift kick to the lower plexus for those of us who saw no momentum break ahead a few months ago. A buy below 330 would've been interesting. I can feel 340 around the corner, but I don't buy on feelings.

Update 6:17 am (Hawaii) Silver breaking out to 43.72 for goodness sakes. SLV (42.70), SLW (41.67), PHYS (13.22) riding along. EXK barely up and PASS in red. I don't believe in gurus and cult figures, but Turd F comes pretty close when it comes to precious, precious metals.

The good news is: demand for gold is so great that $1500 will give way soon, regardless of the action tonight and/or tomorrow. On the flip side, silver may be so strong tomorrow and Wednesday that it may drag gold clear through $1500 without resistance and money will come flooding in from sideline dipshits who were waiting for $1500 weakness to give them a lower entry point. 

He's been honest, balanced and RIGHT in the short time I've been reading (following) his work. And if I'd stayed the course, I'd be up 33% in silver during those two or so months instead of middling in and out like the coward I am.

Update 7:15 am (Hawaii) Silver breaking higher (43.72) though not quite at HOD (43.82). However, SLV is running, now 42.83. I re-entered several minutes ago at 42.57, trying hard to blank out yesterday's debacle.

Checking some details, I didn't sell SLV and WNR as low as I remembered, but the loss of paper profits (and actual loss) still sucks. Sold SLV at 41.71 and WNR at 17.23.

Right now, SLV hovering at 42.80. Seems to trail actual silver by 1 buck give or take, but I don't know if trading along those parameters would work. Seems to be a relationship there, though. When SLV gets within 1 buck, say 80¢, eventually, it will reel back to that dollar difference. When SLV gets beyond 1 buck, to say $1.25, it pulls closer to the dollar difference. Maybe worth doing some homework on.

Update 8:31 am (Hawaii) While metalheads are frothing at the mouth, anticipating a possible breakthrough for gold (currently 1496) and silver (43.86), I came across something somewhat interesting on the spot silver chart at Kitco. Yesterday and today, silver took its gains and lumps during London trading, but once London closed shop (before 12 noon at 11 am Eastern), silver exploded.

Is spot silver being manipulated via overseas channels? Probably not, but it makes me wonder.

All the anticipation for gold and silver is probably overdone and for naught, at least today. I think gold closes at 1490 and silver stays below 44. Too much selling in both before the thresholds. Wouldn't sadden me to be wrong, though.

WNR riding crude oil's rise today (courtesy of lunacy in Nigeria) and now at 17.91 (18.01 HOD). Goes to show what a gentle grip and a little patience can do for WNR traders, especially those who jumped ship near yesterday's low (me).

Update 8:46 am (Hawaii) As for the percentage difference between spot silver and SLV, it appears to be 2.5%. SLV trades 2.5% lower than spot silver due to expenses, etc. of being a paper silver trading vehicle. Spot silver at 43.87 equals SLV at roughly 42.77, which is where both are approximately at now.

Update 9:20 am (Hawaii) Spot silver at 44.06, and the 2.5% difference with SLV makes SLV at 42.95, right on point. The correlation/relationship remaining intact through this move up. And down.

I'm quite fine with being wrong about 44.

Update 9:35 am (Hawaii) Strength in silver going into the close. SLV can hit 43.00 if spot silver gets to 44.08. Currently at 44.03.

Update 9:46 am (Hawaii) Had a whoopsie moment there. See, my preset sell price was 43.07, back when SLV was middling along at 42.60 or so. Didn't think it would happen today. But there I was a few minutes ago, finger on the trigger, debating on whether to unload for a decent 50¢ gain. I decided to wait and not sell. Thing is, I had my clicker on SELL, not CANCEL. So the trade ensued, I made a few bucks and naturally SLV is pushing to get above 43.10. I'm not too mad at myself. There will be ample opportunity to ride another silver swell.

Keeping an eye on WNR, still. Can't bring myself to buy above 18 even though it closed at 18.18 last Friday when I had a little paper profit in hand. But being back in 100% cash is never bad. 

Mania is has a death grip on SLV, trading at 43.09 when spot silver is at 44.14. That converts to SLV 43.03 (-2.5% difference), so technically, I feel okay about the sell. Manias can last a long time, though. 

Update 9:54 am (Hawaii) Afterhours trading could be busy and schwingalicious. Might take a re-entry point in SLV into that territory. SLV coming down from HOD 43.12, now 43.06. Maybe. 

Update 10:26 am (Hawaii) Re-entered SLV before the bell, but the price has gone south. Lingered at 43.00 for a time after the bell, then a steady decline as profiteers cashed in. Now at 42.90 with spot silver at 43.97. By conversion, SLV is a few cents higher (than -2.5%). Ideally, selling immediately after the bell when there was no momentum upward would've been prudent. Then let NYMEX close shop at the bottom of the hour, then wait to see if CNBC talking heads talk spot silver up at the top of the hour. The half-hour coming up before 5 pm Eastern could be spooky. My paper loss isn't big, but I'm wary. 

Update 10:46 am (Hawaii) Silver not faring too badly so far afterhours. Spot is 43.99, which converts to SLV 42.89. 

Jesse of Jesse's Americain Cafe points out a need for caution in spot silver at these levels. His chart points out the sharp declines going into silver options expiry each month. The May expiry for silver is in exactly one week (Apr 26). 

For now, if spot silver can hold here before the talking heads possibly boost it in roughly 10 minutes on CNBC, this late trade might work out after all. 

Update 12:01 pm (Hawaii) Interesting. For several minutes before noon (6 pm Eastern), SLV traded up to 43.00, even though spot silver was well below 44. It was a nice comeback for my post-bell trade, but at 43.93 spot silver, SLV should have been trading (according to my little formula) at 42.83. And, sure enough, as soon as noon (Hawaii time) arrived and Fast Money ended, the first ask/bid went from 43.00/42.99 to 42.91/42.90. SLV has been sinking since in the past three minutes. I should have sold at near break even, but now I'm down 20¢ again (42.84). 

It looks completely contrived. Every bid/ask lot is in round numbers by the 1,000s. I knew the hour would be up and that there was no form of catalyst left for today. Cramer won't be pumping silver, though he could well pimp his precious gold (GG). I'll wait this out. Again. 

Update 1:40 pm (Hawaii) I'm glad in a way I don't have a smart phone. Otherwise I'd follow Globex and Comex 24/7. Addicting? Feels like it. Worse if I could/would trade commodities. Or better? One thing that renders all that silly thinking useless is that silver tends to stay put (or lower) once the domestic market closes shop for the day. 

And with that said, SLV has just gone from 42.80 to 42.95 (ask) in the past few minutes. Far above the conversion; spot silver is 43.92, which coverts to SLV 42.82. This might be a wise move to unload some or all of my position here. 

Pain no more

4:15 am (Hawaii) Well that was slightly horrific. In a world where earthquakes, armed (and unarmed) resistance and nuclear disasters prevail, the rising and declining tide of my little bankroll is just a grain of sand on the beach. But this morning was hellacious emotionally.

First, I debated whether to exit SLV in premarket as it floated around mid-41s. I nodded off for a few minutes, woke up and found it up big to 42.50 (HOD). (Silver was up to 43.50 or so, making that same rocket-ship boost in a 10-minute period.) Stunned, I kept watching, then took a look at my watch list. At one point it was only 15% green, which is as bearish as its been since I can remember. Other silver plays were in the red, so how was SLV staying in the green? It smelled funny and I should've bolted for safety right there.

Then, when the bell rang, I didn't notice how badly WNR was selling off. By the time I did, several minutes later, I was shocked to see a decent profit (as of Friday) turn into a decent loss. WNR, which closed at 18.18 on Friday, did hold its ground around 17.50 or so, and I was underwater by roughly 35¢. Crack spread was up this morning, so... so nothing. Eventually, WNR sold off nasty and I got out at 17.15, possibly at the low of the day, but it wasn't worth waiting around to see. That was an ugly loss, a little more than 1% of my bankroll. Thing is with WNR, there's barely any premarket trading, so when it gets hit, it falls off a cliff and bounces off the side on and on.

SLV eventually sold off in extreme fashion, more so than the sudden burst to the upside earlier. It dropped from 42.50 to 42.10 and held there for several minutes, and I considered jumping out. Waited too long and it sank all the way down to 41.30. This is surreal stuff, not exactly like the flash crash or strange manipulation in DNDN years back. But what had been a nice profit turned into a measly profit at 41.70. The relief of getting out is two-pronged: I've got way too much work to do this morning to be fretting about a market down almost 2%. So my loss for the day so far, and I'm fairly sure I won't be stepping back in, is a little more than 1%. This after being up on Friday. I'm sure a whole lotta people are in the same boat, maybe not as much, maybe much more in the red.

But the clues to get out were there. No question.

What's interesting is that silver is up at record level, but EXK (-7.3%) and SLW (-5.4%) are among the worst losers so far today. AAPL, which was up earlier, is down 1.8% to 321.70, piercing through near-term support (326).

What's working today? AMRN (+68%, yeah say what?), TVIX (+10.5%), EDZ (+7.4%), TZA (+5.7%), VXX (+4.9%), QID (+3.9%), TBT (+1.8%). Seems like tax deadline day is often a big selloff day, if I remember right. Whatever the case, my initial qualms about holding over the weekend turned out to be right. SLV was up big at the HOD (+1.6%), but WNR never really had a chance.

After being in all cash for so long (several weeks), it was weird to see SLV running higher, making my P/L look so nice, but right beneath that line was WNR running equally as big into the red. Worse, actually, despite being a smaller position. Then WNR rallied, SLV held above 42.40, and I was overall in decent profit territory. Paused to think and that was raft over the waterfall time. I know it sounds like a lot of whining or overthinking about a 1% loss, but I hate losses, especially when a winning trade goes the opposite way without a chance to get out. More reason why I need to get rid of trades before the weekend.

Back to 100% cash and now I can concentrate on work. A big pile of work.

Update 11:26 am (Hawaii) As I guessed earlier, but didn't want to confess, this was one of those stay-in-bed-and-get-some-sleep days. I would've been better off just ignoring the market, then waking up long after the early-morning carnage. The indices rallied from 2% losses to finish 1% down.

SLV is at 42.40 afterhours. I sold at 41.70. Maybe this is finally the top in SLV, but with only 23% of my watch list green, SLV was one of the few winners today and I had it pegged after holding over the weekend. It was a scenario where it's best to get out early or just hold, not in-between. 

WNR closed at 17.45, a good chunk higher from my sell at 17.15. Crack spread higher today, it had to balance out somewhat eventually. Which brings me to this: I need to shore up my trading habits severely in this choppy market or stay the eff out. Today's management were D or F level moves. 

The only other silver play on my list that finished up was PHYS (+2%, 13.14). SLW (-2.3%), PAAS (-1.6%) and EXK (-2.7%) faltered even though silver is at 43.36.

AAPL is at 331.25 afterhours. Quite a move (+1.1%) after dipping to 320.16 early. GLD finished up 0.6% (146.00). 

Silver: Sooner or later? 

Update 7:17 pm (Hawaii) Turd Ferguson put it best on a mid-morning chart he posted (silver). He also points out that the S&P influence over the market probably had two effects: first, bullish, and then bearish. Both, as he put succinctly, are total b.s. 

Here's what silver futures look like (5-minute chart) as of right now. That mid-morning schizo move really stands out. Looks like a quake that knocked icebergs in half. 

Weekend library

Zero Hedge: A golden tipping point: U. of Texas takes delivery of $1 billion in physical gold (Apr 16 2011)

Discipline, attack, retreat

4:29 am (Hawaii) Opened a position in SLV (41.60) for the first time in a month or so. Last time, it was trading at 32. Seems like ages ago. My intention with SLV is to ride it up, sell, then mount up again on technical indicators. Nothing fancy. Just increments of profit, if well executed.

WNR, meanwhile, has journeyed between 17.90 and 18.20, generally. Sheer drops lower and rocket bursts up in the hour since the opening bell. It's been a whipsaw market so far in these two issues. Generally, the indices are flat and WNR and SLV really aren't showing any serious potential for bigger moves today than they've shown. No predictions, just ready for anything here.

Silver is up to 42.63 and crude oil is down a smidge (108.44). Much as I want to hold WNR for the short term, I'm tempted to get out on the next ride above 18 and start playing it like an amusement park ride. As long as the caffeine lasts, I might do that.

AAPL is down fractionally to 330.02.

7:23 am (Hawaii) Big selling in SLV at 12:17 pm (Eastern) and the selling lingered for a good half-hour or so, sacking shares from the 41.80 level to below 41.60. SLV struggling to stay above 41.60 since, and with the big run the past few days, we are now in danger territory. Volume is very light and more profit-taking will commence before the close, before the weekend.

So, what had been a moderately profitable position is now very moderately negative for me in SLV. And as I type, the volume selling is returning and SLV is at 41.51. I almost entered late yesterday at 40.80, and shares topped out today at 41.82. There's lots of profit to be taken. Silver generally still has room to the upside, but in the immediate term, can't fight the situation.

WNR is holding above 18.00, relatively flat compared to the wild swings early today.

10:33 am (Hawaii) Does it really matter why silver stocks are trading up after hours? Does it matter who is moving SLV, which closed at 41.83 or so, and hit 41.92 a minute ago? If it weren't naked shorties from JP Morgan, it would be some hedge fund. If not them, then someone else. It's all about the food chain and there will be manipulators, buyers and sellers to the very end. So the question is, sell SLV here and eliminate risk over the weekend? Could any of us really be truly shocked if Blythe shoots down silver sometime today? Or Sunday?

I have no major problem holding SLV through a dip. It's going higher, plain and simple. Supply and demand is a great thing if you're long and it's a total bitch if you're short with demand this insane. Unlike bubbles of the past that were based on paper-thin IPO stocks with no profits, major debt and no real substance, silver is real enough to bonk any shortster on the cranium. But it will definitely continue to ride up and down. I'd rather sit out the plunges, so a sell here wouldn't be the worst thing.

I might just wait until CNBC's post-market shows are done. Someone's bound to hype up silver and gold again, talking about China's inflationary woes and the need of the bank (and investors) there to buy precious metals.

WNR closed at 18.18 and I am content to hold over the weekend. It doesn't really trade after hours anyway, not with that kind of spread.

AAPL sank to 327 today, just about pushing the near-term floor (326). I think AAPL straightens out as earnings day looms, but I wouldn't touch it here either. Any scent of bad news and more stop-loss orders will send shares right through that floor, and the next floor would be 300. AAPL at that level would be quite the bargain.

Update 10:58 am (Hawaii) It wasn't that long ago that "experts" saw the flood of buyers in gold proclaim a bubble was about to burst and that all the speculation, even in defensive mode, was doomed. Well, gold had its selloff, but bounced right back. But what about silver? When novices (like myself) and the rest of mainstream America get goofy crazy to acquire silver metal and silver stocks, isn't the bubble about ready to burst?

Is silver getting close to its "jump the shark" moment?

And, as I type, the ask for SLV in afterhours trading is now 42.00. Silver futures are at 42.96.

Jane Wells (CNBC) talked to a lot of silver investors and traders this week.

Video: Silver, buy or sell (Apr 15 2011)