Pain no more

4:15 am (Hawaii) Well that was slightly horrific. In a world where earthquakes, armed (and unarmed) resistance and nuclear disasters prevail, the rising and declining tide of my little bankroll is just a grain of sand on the beach. But this morning was hellacious emotionally.

First, I debated whether to exit SLV in premarket as it floated around mid-41s. I nodded off for a few minutes, woke up and found it up big to 42.50 (HOD). (Silver was up to 43.50 or so, making that same rocket-ship boost in a 10-minute period.) Stunned, I kept watching, then took a look at my watch list. At one point it was only 15% green, which is as bearish as its been since I can remember. Other silver plays were in the red, so how was SLV staying in the green? It smelled funny and I should've bolted for safety right there.

Then, when the bell rang, I didn't notice how badly WNR was selling off. By the time I did, several minutes later, I was shocked to see a decent profit (as of Friday) turn into a decent loss. WNR, which closed at 18.18 on Friday, did hold its ground around 17.50 or so, and I was underwater by roughly 35¢. Crack spread was up this morning, so... so nothing. Eventually, WNR sold off nasty and I got out at 17.15, possibly at the low of the day, but it wasn't worth waiting around to see. That was an ugly loss, a little more than 1% of my bankroll. Thing is with WNR, there's barely any premarket trading, so when it gets hit, it falls off a cliff and bounces off the side on and on.

SLV eventually sold off in extreme fashion, more so than the sudden burst to the upside earlier. It dropped from 42.50 to 42.10 and held there for several minutes, and I considered jumping out. Waited too long and it sank all the way down to 41.30. This is surreal stuff, not exactly like the flash crash or strange manipulation in DNDN years back. But what had been a nice profit turned into a measly profit at 41.70. The relief of getting out is two-pronged: I've got way too much work to do this morning to be fretting about a market down almost 2%. So my loss for the day so far, and I'm fairly sure I won't be stepping back in, is a little more than 1%. This after being up on Friday. I'm sure a whole lotta people are in the same boat, maybe not as much, maybe much more in the red.

But the clues to get out were there. No question.

What's interesting is that silver is up at record level, but EXK (-7.3%) and SLW (-5.4%) are among the worst losers so far today. AAPL, which was up earlier, is down 1.8% to 321.70, piercing through near-term support (326).

What's working today? AMRN (+68%, yeah say what?), TVIX (+10.5%), EDZ (+7.4%), TZA (+5.7%), VXX (+4.9%), QID (+3.9%), TBT (+1.8%). Seems like tax deadline day is often a big selloff day, if I remember right. Whatever the case, my initial qualms about holding over the weekend turned out to be right. SLV was up big at the HOD (+1.6%), but WNR never really had a chance.

After being in all cash for so long (several weeks), it was weird to see SLV running higher, making my P/L look so nice, but right beneath that line was WNR running equally as big into the red. Worse, actually, despite being a smaller position. Then WNR rallied, SLV held above 42.40, and I was overall in decent profit territory. Paused to think and that was raft over the waterfall time. I know it sounds like a lot of whining or overthinking about a 1% loss, but I hate losses, especially when a winning trade goes the opposite way without a chance to get out. More reason why I need to get rid of trades before the weekend.

Back to 100% cash and now I can concentrate on work. A big pile of work.

Update 11:26 am (Hawaii) As I guessed earlier, but didn't want to confess, this was one of those stay-in-bed-and-get-some-sleep days. I would've been better off just ignoring the market, then waking up long after the early-morning carnage. The indices rallied from 2% losses to finish 1% down.

SLV is at 42.40 afterhours. I sold at 41.70. Maybe this is finally the top in SLV, but with only 23% of my watch list green, SLV was one of the few winners today and I had it pegged after holding over the weekend. It was a scenario where it's best to get out early or just hold, not in-between. 

WNR closed at 17.45, a good chunk higher from my sell at 17.15. Crack spread higher today, it had to balance out somewhat eventually. Which brings me to this: I need to shore up my trading habits severely in this choppy market or stay the eff out. Today's management were D or F level moves. 

The only other silver play on my list that finished up was PHYS (+2%, 13.14). SLW (-2.3%), PAAS (-1.6%) and EXK (-2.7%) faltered even though silver is at 43.36.

AAPL is at 331.25 afterhours. Quite a move (+1.1%) after dipping to 320.16 early. GLD finished up 0.6% (146.00). 

Silver: Sooner or later? 

Update 7:17 pm (Hawaii) Turd Ferguson put it best on a mid-morning chart he posted (silver). He also points out that the S&P influence over the market probably had two effects: first, bullish, and then bearish. Both, as he put succinctly, are total b.s. 

Here's what silver futures look like (5-minute chart) as of right now. That mid-morning schizo move really stands out. Looks like a quake that knocked icebergs in half.