Monday, May 17, 2010

Momo Monday

Dow Jones 10,625.83 +5.67 +0.05%
Nasdaq 2,354.23 +7.30 +0.31%
S&P 500 1,136.94 +1.26 +0.11%

Trading range, indeed. After a drop to 170 or so points on the Dow, the market finished positive. I'm underwhelmed, but comfortable enough to stay in cash for now. Those who went short the past few days were geniuses. One of them is ChessNwine over at iBankCoin.

He got out of his inverse ETFs and longs today and is now 100% cash. I'm not smart like him, didn't hang in there with my inverse stuff like FAZ, but I didn't lose any money today either because I was flat. So I'm either a semi-genius or a semi-dunderhead. Fine.

Slept well through most of the market. A long weekend of work and meetings didn't help me catch up on that sleep debt, but I'm feeling almost right now. It's partly cloudy in Honolulu this morning. Traffic isn't bad. My loved ones are OK. Things could be worse, I know.

• AAPL (254.22 +0.40 +0.16%) sold down to 24.71 before rallying. The final 38 or so minutes were a rocket liftoff for many stocks. AAPL went from 250.51 (another higher intraday low) to 254-plus, then sold back below 254 and I thought about starting a position again. But the indicators were too high and I decided to wait for a little bit more of a pullback, maybe tomorrow.

• BIDU (73.18 -0.80 -1.08%) had a low of 71.64 today, still way off its high last week above 80. Intraday high was 75.10 shortly after the opening bell.

• C (3.88 -0.12 -3.02%) really stood out earlier at 3.76. I'd gotten up at that minute, saw that price and started thinking this might be the start of a serious hammering for finnies. As usual, that kind of guessing is opposite of reality. With Europe likely to have unprecedented financial issues, traders may not buy into euro printing press solution the way it happened in the US with dollars after March 2009.

• FXE / EUO. The euro rallied from a low of 122.47 to a close of 123.48 to finish just above neutral (+0.01 +0.01%). Euro is still at a critical point technically. EUO fell from its high and finished near its low (24.49 -0.03 -0.12%). The swings in these two are not as severe as other ETFs and stocks, but I watch anyway.

• F (11.95 -0.16 -1.32%) hit a low of 11.49 before buyers stormed in. Ford hasn't done anything different, hasn't done anything wrong since shares ballooned to 14-plus a couple of months ago.

• FAS / FAZ (13.77 -0.02 -0.15%). This was a big bump for FAZ to 14.71; it was in the low 12s a few days ago. Then the reversal sapped profits for FAZ traders and it finished up only 2¢ to 13.82. FAS broke even at 28.00 after dipping to 26.08. Crazy train!

• GLD (119.36 -1.01 -0.84%) still correcting slightly. Low of the day was 119.29, not a huge move at all. Hard to argue against gold's value as a hedge against currencies. This might be just a consolidation period unless debt-ridden nations start unloading their gold stocks.

• GS (142.64 -0.59 -0.41%) fell to 138.53 before rallying.

• HAUP (2.82 -1.11 -28.24%) cratered, as expected, after the weak earnings report. Shares got down to 2.77 and hovered above 2.90 for some time, but selling pressure was still strong through the late rally. The retracement is a little more than 50% since the run-up on Thursday afternoon. Staying listed on the NASDAQ is more likely now.

• IMAX (19.60 +0.30 +1.55%) was one of the stronger players today, well off the low of 19.19. Shares have stabilized since the massive insider selling a couple of weeks ago.

• IRE (7.41 -0.34 -4.39%), NBG (2.65 -0.06 -2.21%) and STD (10.36 -0.08 -0.77%) all rallied off their lows. Trillion euros or not, they'll keep getting hit until the next infusion of freshly printed money.

• NFLX (106.35 +5.79 +5.76%) was the biggest mover on my list despite a low of 101.31. I liked NFLX in the 80s, missed the run to 100-plus on the earnings report and positive guidance, but haven't been a staunch believer since. There's competition (Coinstar, Apple, Amazon) in the digital world, and the run last week to 120 was based on takeover rumors. Shares could run again on the rumors, but I'll stay out.

• TMF (36.32 -0.55 -1.49%) finally pulled back after a nice run. For awhile, though, 30-year bonds were quite sexy.

• VXX (27.48 +0.62 +2.31%) finished with a nice gain despite pulling back from 29.00. After making and losing money on this steroid-laden robot, I'm still not sure how to define the volatility that is measured by VXX (and VIX). There's always price action, though, and this was very active. Kooky.

• X (51.15 -1.66 -3.14%) sold off again. Last week's run was short-lived.

Oil and the market have traded together. Oil is at $70 a barrel now, at a possible breaking point or reversal point.

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