Dow Jones 10,043 -22.82 -0.23%
Nasdaq 2,210.95 -2.60 -0.12%
S&P 500 1,074.03 +0.38 +0.04%
Really. That's it? This huuuuuge intraday rally left us down on two indices and barely up (38/100th of 1 point) on the S&P. And the bulls are stampeding. I don't know if it was the machines whirring about during those last two hours, or if it was truly fundies and retail folks pouring in. Maybe all. But I can't commit fully to this. No way.
I wound up getting a very small position in AAPL a minute before the close at 245.09. It can drop to 240 and won't hurt me, but I do see it going back there, so why buy? At this point, I'm not going to fight the numbers, and if I'd gotten into AAPL at 239 (I had the chance earlier, before my little nap), maybe a bigger position was warranted.
Even with a small position on the long side, I feel compelled to get a small position in VXX as a hedge. Nothing has been solved in the past few hours. Not North Korea. Not Spain. Not the wretched oil screwup in the Gulf. (There's still the widening LIBOR spread, lingering domestic financial reform, investor hatred of Wall St, i.e. Flash Crash, and more.)
My guesses about FAZ and VXX were right. They faded after the open. FAZ fell from a high of 17.98 to 16.00 at the close (2.1%). VXX topped out at 36.10 and finished at 31.66 (-4.4%).
21% AAPL, 79% Cash. May add 11% position in VXX.
• EWP 33.07 (+0.00 +0.00%). After all of today's tumult and ecstasy, the Spain ETF finished at break-even. I knew looking at the charts that there has been quite a bit of strength there, even with absurdly high unemployment numbers. But Spain is no Greece, and it has held strong for the most part thanks to (slightly) preemptive measures. I'm not about to go long Spain, but I am not going to try shorting it via ETF/ETN either.
• FXE 122.98 (-0.44 -0.36%). A good finish after dropping to 121.72 early. FXE's counterpart, EUO, finished positive for the day (24.71 +0.18 +0.73).
• FXI 37.97 (-0.46 -1.20%). Very strong close after dropping to 36.62. FXI has been a gainer in recent days. Today's action was definitely bullish on the whole, which is good news if you plan to short China at some point. FXP closed at 45.73 (+1.06 +2.37%). I don't know if I'd have the balls to short FXI via FXP ... but I'm watching.
• GLD 117.36 (+0.52 +0.45%). Not a huge range in the gold ETF, but it did bounce off 116.82. The consolidation continues.
• C 3.78 (+0.00 +0.00%) sank to 3.56 before rallying. This is one of those places where a stock takes a beating because it has a cousin across town who hasn't been paying his dues. When C is low as 3.56, things get surreal, as if the calender had been rewound to spring of 2009.
• GS 142.56 (5.87 +4.29%). There are analysts who are convinced that the market can't rally back without Goldman. Shares were chopped to 134.20 early before coming back with force. There have been days when GS didn't participate in rallies. Lately, GS has shown more life. They are still kings of Wall St. Only those with nuggets of steel will try to short the banksters after today's 250-point surge by the bulls.
• USO 31.85 (-0.32 -0.99) rallied from 30.93. The bottom might be nearing for oil. For now, SCO 17.76 (+0.36 +2.07%) still made money for crude bears. SCO's high was 18.74.
• TLT 98.79 (+0.48 +0.49%) was a safe haven for frazzled investors. I probably should put my skeptical chattering to rest and park in some TLT already. I won't.
• UUP 25.30 (+0.07 +0.28%). The dollar stayed put in a tight range (25.29-25.50).
• VXX 31.66 (-1.46 -4.41%) and FAZ 16.00 (-0.34 -2.08%) made big profits for overnight holders. Getting in during the morning wasn't an easy trade, though. A nimble trader gets max profits before the downturn. Not so nimble? Half the profits or more disappear instantly. Still, at these end-of-day levels, both are attractive.
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