More bounce to the ounce

7:36 am (Hawaii) There goes the FAZbreak, pushing back up to 63.65. I just got up 15 minutes ago, re-entered at 63.30 even though FAZ is/was up more than 8% for the day. I really don't like chasing anything like I did in the past. And I liked FAZ at 60 or 55, but didn't buy at 60. This morning, it came down to 56.33 in premarket trading. But I was snoozing.

Looks like 56+ will turn out to be the recent low, which makes sense. My megaphone pattern on the chart had FAZ at 55 if it touched the bottom of its range. Then Fitch downgrades Italy and Spain, and FAZ bounces. The Dow has dropped 20 points since I turned on the computer, now -56. I've followed FAZ off  and on for awhile, doing daily charts the past week or two and it's been interesting. Just when you think alien hybrid algo devil machines run everything, human psychology returns to the arena. In other words, when FAZ sells off or goes on a tear higher, it moves like nothing else. It's panic or party time. So I don't expect a drastic pullback yet, not like I would in other stocks or ETFs.

This was at 81 what ... two or three days ago? The move to 81 happened, but the other move — to 100 — is still coming. I still don't know if FAZ goes back to 50 or 42 first. For now, it's either keep tight stops and stay out of any possible avalanche selloff later in the day, or mobilize for a home run move. The difference today is that it's Friday, and that will play into the psyche.

FAZ 1-minute: up 9% so far today

Update 8:03 am Added more FAZ at 64.05, giving in to the urge to chase, and got spanked. Sold at 62.90. The run is probably done after three surges higher today. That's a lot for any stock, especially when it's up about 10% at the peak. Small loss. AGAIN. Giving the price action space to move used to be a good thing. Now, it's a failing tactic. Probably going back to selling at my entry point. FAZ went to 64.15 before sliding. 

Dow is -8 and making a strong rally off its low. My timing couldn't have been worse. Only decent thing I did was get out. I was too overconfident in the momentum in this late stage of the move. Sometimes 10% up is the ceiling, sometimes it's not. This time, it was. Adding the shares above 64 didn't help. Here in the 62.90-63.00 range, I'd be down just a tiny bit from the 63.30 entry point. There's a part of my thinking that wants to stick to strict price targets like 60 and 55. Then there's the undisciplined part that chases intraday. It's time to get much much more technical.