Apple 191.79On paper: Back in the 90s, 120s and 130s, the stock had longs feeling impatient. After all, when AAPL hit an all-time high of 85, it promptly sunk into the 50s and took 10 months to return to the 80s. That's one hell of a wait. But since breaking out of the 90s with initial news of the newfangled iPhone, the stock has been on a tear. A double in six months is something magnificent. The stock has traded above its 10-day moving averages almost all the time since August.
The skinny: holiday season is upon us, but it is still more than two months until the next earnings report. Can AAPL continue to ramp up without news?
Of course, the best and simplest approach is to buy and hold. My faux buy-Apple-only (monthly) portfolio is nothing but green, green, green.
Pupule says: As much as I love the company and the products, I will wait.
Google 741.79
On paper: Screw paper. This is a "holy shit" stock and has been since mid-September, when GOOG traded at 520. The stock is well above its 10-day moving averages. There is not much to be said for a stock that has traded up nearly every day for two months. The news keeps coming out, good, great and peerless.
The skinny: The good news won't be endless, and there will be a pullback sooner or later. Then again, this stock sat at 460-500 for such a long time that those of us who passed on GOOG (me) deserve to suffer as fans on the sidelines.
Pupule says: Wait. Do not chase.
Intuitive Surgical 317.07
On paper: This was below 140 three months ago. Holy crud. The stock is trading below its 10-day SMA (320.79), but above its 10-day EMA (311.38).
The skinny: Cramer helped move the stock with his "buy-buy-buy!" directive a couple of weeks ago. Until major buying volume returns, ISRG is too hot to handle.
Pupule says: Wait.
Research in Motion 131.64
On paper: Upgrades and hype, like Citigroup's new label as the "best stock of 2008" don't hurt. The stock is far above its moving averages.
The skinny: RIMM is one of the very few stocks I feel comfortable viewing as a long-term hold. It is also a stock that moves in boxes (re: Nicolas Darvas), which makes it attractive as a trading vehicle.
Pupule says: Until there is a kryptonite for RIMM, it is almost a "can't lose" stock. Still, best to wait until it comes down below its moving averages, hopefully some time in this decade.
Baidu 407.70On paper: Far above its moving averages. Frothy.
The skinny: No news to lift it any further. BIDU has gone straight up from 310 to 430 (Tuesday) without a breather.
Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
China Life Insurance 92.98
On paper: The China selloff hit LFC in a nice way. At 92, it is trading at the same levels it did at the end of September. A bargain? Relatively, yes, for a stock that has doubled in six months. Trades well below its 10-day EMA (95.78) and SMA (97.16).
The skinny: I always thought of LFC as a "safe" play but had no idea it would explode. All of the more sedate sectors seem to explode in China thanks to the influx of new arrivals to the growing middle class. Family-oriented societies are going to invest in life insurance, no ifs, ands or buts.
Pupule says: A fair buy here. Still down 13% from it's all-time high.
China Mobile 92.06
On paper: stock hit 104 on Oct. 29, more than double since Aug. 16. The recent selloff brought the stock below 90, and it had a moderate comeback on Tuesday to 92. Still below its 10-day averages (EMA 95.26, SMA 98.01). Nowhere close to its 50-day EMA (83.78) and SMA (81.96).
The skinny: The stock has bounced off every gap down since the August low.
Pupule says: Yeah, I got out at 87 the other day, but this a classic red chip stock on sale — 16% off its high. Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 131.88
On paper: CMG is down from its all-time high of 141, now touching its 10-day EMA (131.71) and under its 10-day SMA (132.31).
The skinny: The stock has run to two new highs in the past month, but volume really kicked up on the second leg up. Is there another leg left? Dunno.
Pupule says: Wait. Yesterday's volume was very weak, and it's a big if whether there are still more buyers out there than sellers.
CNOOC Ltd. 190.03
On paper: After hitting 218 on Halloween, CEO has sold off and now trades below its 10-day moving averages.
The skinny: Crude is at its all-time highs, which means the weakness in the stock right now is not a happy signal. After doubling in less than three months, the stock could be in for a long stretch of consolidation.
Pupule says: I loved this stock in the 90s, but didn't have the foresight to buy at a P/E of 11. Anyone with insights about this stock, please chime in.
PetroChina 229.42
On paper: Like CNOOC, PetroChina has tumbled as quickly as it spiked. After running from 190 to 266 in just five sessions (mid-October), PTR went stagnant, then dropped on Monday. It trades below its 10-day moving averages (EMA 239, SMA 244).
The skinny: Do you trust a state-owned sector leader that is charged with geopolitical undercurrents? If so, then this is your cup of tea.
Pupule says: The price screams buy. Buying PTR and/or CEO almost feels (I imagine) like buying a piece of the mob. They won't be defeated, and you'll never really get a clean look at their books. I'm not picky that way. I wish I'd been long PTR and CEO all along.
VMware 110.04
On paper: After debuting at 50 in mid-August, the stock has risen as high as 150%. VMW is down 12% from its high of 125, now below its 10-day EMA (112.89). Four down days in a row with shrinking volume is a good sign for longs.
The skinny: Virtualization. Dominance. Most likely to succeed? Probably.
Pupule says: For VMW groupies, this is clearly a buy. For bargain hunters, worth waiting more. At 110, the stock is at a pivotal point. Market gyrations could give us a cheaper price. Those of us who pass on VMW will be lamenting our ineptitude when it hits 300 in one year. Just my little guesstimate.
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