10:03 am (Hawaii). Got up an hour ago and the market has bounced back moderately. Manufacturing numbers out of Philadelphia, CNBC says, were the catalyst.
AAPL still hovering at 358, but metals continue to rock. SLV (+3.5%) and EXK (2.3%) are up big thanks to chaos in the Middle East (Day of Rage). SLV up almost in a straight line since January 26.
VXX (+1.4%) still up. Won't be touching that due to overnight contango effect.
LVS is up again (1.2%), now 48.82. I remember it trading to the low 46s after its earnings report two weeks ago. AMZN, VZ, CMG all up.
AAPL was actually at the bottom red end of my watch list early in the session, but has been replaced by RLOC and GMCR (-4.5%).
I've come to accept that the protests and rioting of the Middle East have become a combined catalyst that will not cease for weeks, if not months. That makes oil, gold and silver prominent, almost on par with a former "safe haven" like AAPL. Not interested in chasing SLV here, but I'll stay tuned for the next news event. Will there be another Day of Rage? Of course. People there are pissed.
EXK has traded in a range of roughly 5.50 to 7.50 for since November. At 7.20, it may be ready to break out. I wrote last year that speculators and traders had pointed out silver as an unappreciated vehicle, that there was massive hoarding going on. Whether that's true or ever was, the extremes of the past few months in the price are a great opportunity. EXK has a float of 68.6 million shares and miniscule debt ($337K). The numbers are positive up and down, but this is a tiny company ($82.3 million revenue). At 5.50, a great buy in this environment. At 7 plus, watch out. Is it worth the risk? Will the rubber band yank it back when it touches 7.50?
SLV is also almost too hot to touch by most indicators. Traded between 26 and 30.50 since November and today is at a threshold (31) on increased volume. Tempting. I've always liked physical silver — looking at it more than owning it — so the appreciation of the metal is something to handle. As a piece of paper, it will always be a risk. Any government can seize paper assets of metals. It's happened before (long ago). But right now, SLV and EXK are alluring.
AAPL might be a great buy here at 357, but even without any Steve Jobs health issue, it always has pullbacks after earnings. I'm not willing to park into a position and wait for a catalyst. I'm willing to wait for a great price. But clearly, this is not just about Steve Jobs or app subscriptions. It's also about our personal issues with diseases like cancer. If we're comfortable enough with how the disease is treated, how it has affected our families and how we've dealt with it, the media circus around Mr. Jobs matters less. But there are still many traders and investors with panic buttons when it comes to anything negative or perceived as negative about the CEO.
One nice healthy photo of Mr. Jobs and Mr. Obama tonight could set shares on fire again.
NFLX, LULU and other momo movers are fun if you can take the heat. I prefer something cooler with a P/E I can trust. Doesn't mean I won't touch momos. But I know my preference and I'll work with it.
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