Is the coast clear yet?

Denise Milani

7:35 am (Hawaii) Apparently so. The Fed's minutes are generically status quo. I saw SLV explode from 44.20 (pre-minutes) to 44.85 or so with seven or eight minutes. During that time, when SLV pulled back, I kept thinking 44.24 as an entry point, which is precisely where it came back to. (Why 44.24? I did quick math in my head and a Fibonacci retrace of 38.2% of the gain between 44.20 and 44.85 was roughly 44.24.) But I didn't pull the trigger. And of course, SLV ran back up and continued to 44.85. I eventually entered at 44.75 and sat through a dip below 44.50. SLV now at 44.90 (HOD 44.99).

Yup, Spot Silver is benefiting and GLD is up, too (+1.1% to 147.96).

Bernankepalooza has made happy traders of bulls, not so much of bears. The market's response has been lukewarm. 54% of my watch list is green, but of the winners, they're big winners. RLOC (+31.3% to 23.63), EXK (+6% to 11.31), AMZN (+5.9% to 193.29), SLW (+4.2% to 40.83), CLNE (+4% to 17.07), PSLV (+4% to 20.97), ACQ (+3.7% to 330.22).

Yep, the miners are finally coming home to roost. PAAS and PHYS are also up. AAPL is still down for the day, while X (-4.3%), AMRN (-3.4%), WNR (-2.7%) and RIG (-2.6%) are plodding.

It would be a shock to the market if Big Ben said anything beyond what the minutes offered. Nothing is guaranteed. It's a 90% lock he'll be neutral and stick to the minutes script. That 10% is, of course, spooky for newly minted bulls.

Silver train

Update 9:29 am (Hawaii) As expected, Bernankepalooza went without a hitch. Big Ben assured planet earth that there's no real inflation, all systems are status quo/go and the market responded as such. Spot Silver and silver plays fluctuated during the 40-minute speech, but with the coast very clear now, it is trading at 47.72. SLV has been racing higher, giving back, racing higher, giving back and is now at 46.78, right about its HOD. YES, SLV is trading higher than the -2.5% conversion to Spot, but I'm not complaining.

The only thing that remains close to a 90% guess is that BM/JPM will not issue a bear raid for now. As in the next hour. After that, who knows...

Update 10:06 am (Hawaii) Still 32% cash in my little roll. SLV hit a high of 47.15, currently 46.91 after hours. Might deploy some cash into AGQ (ultra silver ETF) and/or SLW. If there ever was a green light for Spot Silver, now would be the time. I'm 99% positive Asia will push Spot (currently 48.04) higher. What happens after Asia closes and New York opens at 7:30 am Eastern, that's another scenario.

SLV just dropped from 46.85-46.90 to 46.65. Never a dull moment.

Silver with attitude

Update 2:56 pm (Hawaii) Not feeling incredibly confident at this point, but I made the decision and there's nothing that can be done. I'm sticking with my position in SLV overnight, which means 1) Hong Kong could buy it up like crazy, and so far Spot Silver is up to 48.40 in the first 30 minutes or so of trading there, and 2) New York could take Spot tomorrow morning and mutilate it. Odds are in favor of a rise overseas, but I'm not comfortable. I could've sold afterhours for a tidy profit; at SLV's high of 47.56, I could've banked roughly 2.80 in profit. Instead, it's time to let a winner run. In fact, I almost opened a second position in AGQ, which went from 358 during the doldrums of afterhours trading to 370. A small position would've been a nice trade. But I stayed put. 

Busy afternoon and evening ahead, so I won't be able to watch Spot run. Just as well. Nothing I can do about it until 2 am Hawaii time. My leanings and beliefs are only stronger because of the wealth of knowledge out there regarding Spot Silver, SLV (always iffy), the Fed, Spot Gold, etc. This trader is in need of some stress relief, like exercise. A long walk. 

Hong Kong