10:02 am (Hawaii) Yes, that was a wild ride, but unexpected, at that. Spot Gold was volatile and hostile today. I slept in while GLD rose to a high of 153.61, which put me up at nearly $4 per share. Small position, modest paper gain. By the time I woke up around 6 am, it was noon in NYC and GLD was lower, hovering around 152. Consider me one of the latecomers who got shaken out of the golden tree. I dumped the position at 150.38 just before the close. Naturally, GLD rallied a bit into the bell, and is rising again, now 150.60 after hours.
I don't regret entering this position. It was still net positive, though I sold at more than $3 off the high. Sometimes there's no telling what a stock will do and there's no way to really read it until there's some skin in the game. I was all right with GLD tricking and cascading down to 152 or 151; it was too late at 151+ to get out with a good profit, but too early to depart. A bounce could've arrived and my position was small enough that the dollar amount between an exit at 150 or 151 wasn't much. So I waited.
Because I still don't trust the alien algo machines when an avalanche hits, I prefer to get out with a little profit or break even than wait around for a loss, and that's what I did. When things settle down, I'll be happy to re-open a GLD position. Or something in NGD or DGP. But 100% cash is always fine for the short term.
Had I been in GLD 10 or 20 or 50 dollars ago, it would've been easy to let it ride through this storm. Either 150 would hold as support or simply cave in; I'd bet on holding. But managing risk is key in this oddball market, especially with such a high entry point (149.69). Volume was light overall and all three indices were down fractionally. However, the PMs got trashed. 80% of my Metals watch list is red, just 15% green. Those in the green were bear ETFs.
Spot Gold is 1545. Spot Silver is 43.87. I watched SLV and the miners a bit. It's tough when two elephants are sitting on you. It might be awhile before the elephants leave the room.
ACQ down 16.7% to 298. PSLV down 10.5% to 19.44. DBS down 8.7% to 77.00. SLV down 8.2% to 43.01. (SLV was below 43 for the past hour or so.) EXK -7.6% to 10.61. SLW lost 7% to 37.78. On and on. Relative to the big gains of the past few months, silver is still a winner, but I'm not thinking of buying anything but physical here.
My regular watch list was throttled, as well, with 71% in the red and 28% in the green. The day started far more bullishly, but AAPL ended up down 1.1% (346.22) as low volume kept the market in the doldrums. AMZN was up 2.7% to 201. Amazing ride since that earnings call when shares plummeted from 181 to 172 in a couple of minutes, then rallied back.
NFLX rose 2% to 237 on an upgrade from Citigroup. Ridiculous. However, where there's a cult following of unabashed, bullish traders, that's where there's quick money to be made on either side. I've never shorted a thing, but I can see how money can be made on NFLX riding it up and down. Same with silver.
Update 1:51 pm (Hawaii) A third margin rate on Spot Silver??? Three hikes in one week at a total of 35%. Holy crap. That explains everything about Spot Silver's collapse today. It also says a lot about the devious shit going on behind the scenes.
Turd Ferguson is who I read when I want instant info on the truth behind silver. He writes:
The CME/EE complex is desperately trying to squash demand for silver. The entire price discovery and delivery process of the Comex is collapsing. These desperate times are calling for desperate measures and you are seeing them play out in real time.See Turd's latest at his blog.
Lives have been destroyed for silver and gold since the beginning of colonial tyranny. It continues today. But who wins this battle in 2011? I can't say for sure.
Spot Silver bouncing a bit since Sydney opened shop. Now 44.71.
Spot Gold also pushing a bit higher thanks to the Sydney trade, now at 1541.
It looks especially dire for SLV, the most manipulated instrument I know of. Traders don't want to be stuck holding the bag when JP Morgan/Comex can't disprove the widespread belief that its physical silver vaults are ... empty. Then there's major naked shorting, an elephant stomping on ants. And, naturally, the profit-taking in a stock/ETF that's run from 28 to 49 in mere weeks.
It's a tough place to be. Gold seems so much simpler, from ultra ETF DGP to small miners like XG to more standard GG. Even GLD is safer than SLV from my perspective. But I am not walking away entirely from Spot Silver. There's still so much potential left, so much money to be made for the nimble-footed.
What does not kill this rally makes it stronger.
Fighting the paper price is becoming counter-productive, because it opens the door to additional buying of physical bullion from Asia. It is starting to look like a feedback loop, in which the struggle of the shorts to extricate themselves merely tightens their bonds.
So, which side wins? The one with an infinite line of credit from the Fed, or the one with an army of ants (retail peons)? I have no skin in the silver game this week, but it's no less compelling.
8:55 pm (Hawaii) Nice to see Spot Silver above 45 now, but that waterfall on the chart is still incredible to see.
Spot Gold just drifting. Volume in May could be the lightest of any month so far this year. I'm expecting Spot Gold to remain in a tight range, while Spot Silver will fluctuate and gyrate many, many times, mostly to the downside. No need to be a hero here.
No comments:
Post a Comment