No. 1 Apple: Santa's gift?

January is less than a week away, which means tech stocks are ready to ramp up — new-year upgrades by analysts will have portfolio managers and hedgies likely load up. But does that mean a buy at any price is acceptable? Absolutely not. Smart shoppers pay less and gain more. That's why I'm going to examine the X-Rays of my Top 25 stocks and determine which are actually priced well or not.

After all, this market punishes all stocks mercilessly, treating Apple no better than punked stocks like (fill in the blank with a mortgage or financial).


















The 50-day simple moving average has been a steady indicator for AAPL. Since April, the two times when AAPL dipped below the 50-day SMA (mid-August, mid-November) proved to be buying opportunities. AAPL had no business breaking down like that, but the 50-day blue line told us when the fickle subprime crisis/market climate was ready to freeze over, when it would warm up, and generally, that AAPL would be fine.

The stock is nowhere near bargain levels anymore, and is gradually starting to approach 2x its 200-day SMA (272). That's a key indicator to watch; there are managers out there who use that simple equation to sell off in a big way. Of course, I'll be more than happy to take profits at 272 if need be.

Today's move to 198 was interesting, but with minor volume, it may not stick. Too many people handling the big money are on vacation this week. January could be nice.