Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Pupule's Top 25

As much as I would love to own long- and short-term shares of AAPL and little else, my experience with Crocs (and lululemon and China Digital TV and more) is still fresh, still stings and still tells me that the big boys will and can do whatever they want at any time. Owned CROX from 40 to 75, didn't sell a share along the way. As with CROX, there was no way to get out between 75 and 60, which is where the stock was after Q3 earnings were slightly disappointing back in October. From there, it was a straight drop to 40. All profits gone, and then some because I bought more (foolishly) near the top at 73.

So, maybe AAPL is one of the few stocks worth nickel and diming with 24-hour surveilance. But the risk is immense when it comes to market climate and investor/trader schizophrenia. This is why I am going to keep a "Top 10" list of stocks I would considering owning both long term and short term. Criteria?

a. Accelerating earnings growth for at least three years
b. Product originality, i.e. killer app(s)
c. Best of breed
d. Double-digit return on assets and return on equity
e. Double-digit (quarterly) revenue and earnings growth
f. Healthy total cash vs. total debt

These stocks may meet the criteria. Homework time.

My Top 25

1. Apple | pro leader in cool tech/electronics | con no margin for error
2. Google | pro leader in search/online advertising | con roadblocks in China?
3. Research in Motion | pro leader in smartphones | con too expensive for China?
4. Intuitive Surgical
| pro
leader in surgical technology (DaVinci) | con thinly traded
5. Nintendo | pro gamemakers rush to make Wii games | con Co micromanaging growth
6. Potash | pro leader in global ag fertilizer | con considerable competition
7. China Mobile | pro lock on Chinese wireless market | con overbought by big money?
8. PetroChina | pro mainland China, govt protectionism | con fickle oil market
9. First Solar | pro leader in solar energy | con plenty of competitors
10. McDonald's | pro major growth with breakfast | con subject to trifling dollar

11. Suntech Power | pro
leader in China alternative energy | con stiff competition
12. Chipotle Mexican | pro 
high growth restaurant | con subject to consumer spending
13. Baidu | pro 
leading Chinese search engine | con dwarfed by Google
14. Foster Wheeler | pro
infrastructure king | con subject to U.S. spending
15. Flowserve | pro
leader in pumps | con subject to domestic spending
16. Focus Media | pro
advertising leader in China | con limited to electronic ads
17. Goldman Sachs | pro
king of financials | con lack of consumer confidence
18. Nike | pro
growth in China | con intense competition
19. CNOOC | pro
offshore China, govt protectionism | con fickle oil market
20. VMware | pro
virtualization leader | con MSFT on its tail 

21. lululemon athletica | pro
yoga niche, strong demographic | con consumer spending, competition
22. Microsoft | pro
Halo starts momentum | con no other originality
23. Amazon | pro
Bezos has few peers as CEO | con China is a mystery 
24. eBay
| pro PayPal continues to rule | con horrendous customer service
25. China Life Insurance | pro growing middle class | con economy faces inflation

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