Citi vs. Dendreon

I once held a sizable position in DNDN. Sizable for me, I should note. Everything looked great. Prostate cancer treatment like nothing before. All that stood between Dendreon, prolonging the lives of patients and a tidy profit was the FDA panel. I loaded up. The panel shot Dendreon down.

That was two years ago, and to see DNDN shares shoot from 7 to 20 (and back down to 17ish today) is amazing. I'm glad for the company and especially for the patients. I'm also stoked for the longs who hung in there when all seemed ridiculous and hopeless, even. Looking back at DNDN two years ago is almost like Citigroup this week, going into Friday's huge earnings conference. C has detractors, like DNDN did. More so, C has been shorted incredibly, just as DNDN was back then.

The biggest reason why this situation is different, though, is that the Fed is on Citi's side. Back in 2007, the Fed (FDA) was corrupt (yes, I said it) and anti-Provenge to the nth degree. I got over it, but I ain't going to lie. There was ample reason back then to approve Provenge.

This time, with Citi, there's an economy and the White House weighing in. I've been in and out of C since 1.70, and at 3.97 today (4.13 after hours), I won't be going anywhere aside from a day/swing trade here and there. Golden rule: do not bet against the Fed.