Little bit of fatigue and a little bit of quiet time game me a chance to review transactions of the past month. Not that many, in hindsight. Prolific daytrader I am not. Nine wins, two defeats, two ties. Purposely didn't look into scale of victory/loss as much as whether I took profits or cut off losses methodically rather than emotionally. I've gotten better in that regard.
Didn't note this the other day, but I'm still thinking about it. I haven't lost in Citigroup (yet) because of the financials' bull run and my patience. The stock is up to 3.04 now, a shade under my average cost basis. But I'd have been better off by not buying above 3 -- the higher end of its trading range. After I bought a different points above 3, C dove back down as low as 2.32. So even though I'd bought C beforehand as low as 1.70, the lesson was lost on me. Now I wonder if I've repeated history with my buys of Wells Fargo at 18.93 and 19.30. Though I firmly believe WFC should be a 25-30 stock, that's no reason to pay a higher price rather than wait for a better one. Even as financials report in the coming week, I never gave the price a chance to pull back. It could come down to 17.42 (as it did intraday on Friday). Maybe 16.
Will it get that low? I doubt it. Revenues of $20 billion for Q1 in a reviving Cali real estate market are real. WFC should trade well above its Wednesday closing price of 14.89. Maybe it'll be stuck between 17 and 20 for awhile. But one other thing concerns me. One of my favorite bloggers, Beanieville, shorted WFC on Thursday at 18.03. Now, that's a good price, I thought, to go long. Funny? Maybe. I was sleeping while the stock dropped to 18 and below, or I would've bought some there. So, either Beanieville is right or I'm right.
Maybe we'll both be right. Maybe WFC has to bottom out at 16 before surging into the mid-20s. I hate to lose.
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