Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Stretch run

Out of BIDU at 77.65 (+1.60 day trade). Volume thinned out with a 8-plus% gain for the day — not for me, but for the traders who got in yesterday and prior. Getting back to the 77.97 high is unlikely, so I didn't want to stick around with the odds against me. Shares keep bouncing off the 77.15 area, though.

If BIDU can crack 78, it'll rocket like it did at 77 and 76 as the shorts run for cover. But I don't think even then it would close above 78. More like 76, maybe 75. The beautiful thing about BIDU is that it traded in a rather orderly fashion, with plenty of heavy feet on the gas pedal.

More thoughts on VXX. A small position would've sufficed. Instead of an 18% lot, more like 5% would have worked fine. Dropping from high 25s to mid-24s would've cost me very little. Instead, I took a bit of a loss that was larger than my BIDU gain. That's too much insurance, but I'm learning.

A 5% lot of VXX works in the other direction, too. Had the market turned sour, VXX could've made another run to 30, and that would've covered any reversal in AAPL for the most part, as it did on Friday (paper loss). The good thing is, I monitored all of this closely today and kept things on a short leash. Costly lesson, but invaluable for future decisions.

BIDU below 77 now. I got out in the nick of time. Now, if I was more sophisticated, I'd short some shares. I'm content to just watch here and not fiddle with dangerous chemicals in the lab.

Fibonacci retrace (based on today's low and high) for BIDU:
38.2% 75.99
50.0% 75.38
61.8% 74.77

A full-blown lawsuit by HTC has hurt AAPL in the past hour. Shares now below 261 after trading above 263 early on.

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