Monday, May 3, 2010

Toga party over? NBG stalls, ABK roars

By the time I hit the sack about one hour after the opening bell, it was roughly 4:30 a.m. here. By then, the market was surging ahead and almost everything on my watch list was green, the lone exception being FAZ.

NBG topped out at 3.42, its opening price. Not only is the Greecian formula old news already, but the stock has burnt out since bottoming at 2.60 just a few sessions ago. A 31% gain in less than a week has that effect. I stayed completely away from NBG, the Greek bailout, even the gyro restaurant a few blocks away. There might be another run in NBG coming, but first, a little profit-taking for those brave souls who dipped in last week.

Instead, today's ass kicker was ABK, which is in good with the NYSE again and spiked in the final hour of trading from 1.31 to 1.78 — a 36% move. ABK closed at 1.71. A Fibonacci retrace on today's move brings the price down to 1.60 (38.2% retrace), 1.54 (50%) and 1.49 (61.8%). I can't see ABK pulling back that much, but there's a lot I never see, so I'm neither in the mood to chase nor am I inclined to settle for a more modest retracement.

Damn, ABK ... now at 1.63 in afterhours trading. Hmm.

Update: noon, Hawaii time. ABK is $4.75 billion in debt and has tripled in the past month. Shares are now 1.61 in afterhours. Yes, I can definitely see more retracement at this point, but it could also rocket more tomorrow if the market remains bullish or neutral. Will it rain in Spain?

I'd rather trade APPL short term, but a very small position in ABK might be interesting.

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