Thursday, June 3, 2010

Overnight gas

Took a flyer on UNG, opening a tiny position before the end of afterhours trading. Since then, I've gone over the basic fundamentals and 2-year charts of roughly 39 natural gas stocks, there are some clear patterns and several companies that are clearly way in over their heads. In fact, many of the most debt-ridden nat gas stocks also have multiple execs making more than $1 million annually. It's a bit disgusting to see after awhile.

UNG is quite unpopular, it seems, but has managed to rise more than 6% during this recent explosion that began with Obama's speech on Wednesday afternoon. Just about every nat gas stock I've seen has surged.

There isn't one that vividly pops out both fundamentally and technically, but I do know that there are several I'd cross out if I were shopping for two or three of the best plays. Though it may be unfair to tie these companies to past performance in what had been a relatively unfriendly climate, some things like debt and CEO salary are indisputable. Why would a company have four execs making salaries ranging from $2.8 million to $12.5 million, while the company has just $33 million in cash and an astounding $10.2 billion in debt? That's a situation I'd steer away from. Let some other trader or investor get sucked into that death spiral.

Cramer touted Westport Innovations (WPRT) during his show today. WPRT has some lousy numbers, but serves a key, unique role in the industry, Cramer claims. With "only" $15.7 million of debt and a tiny float (22 million shares), maybe he's playing his Cramerica nation for a quick profit by tomorrow. I stayed out.

One of the later charts I uploaded was of Ultra Petroleum (UPL), which has stunning margins and only one drawback: $1.05 billion of debt.

I also noticed that many of the struggling nat gas stocks had very little insider ownership and super heavy institutional ownership. Theoretically, that's supposed to be a plus when institutional ownership is involved, but I've come to firmly believe that if management has almost no stake in the future of the company's stock, they will not come through. When insider ownership at is a middling or horrendous level, it's just not a good sign. Conversely, when insiders are buying stock, it's usually a great tell of things to come. Still much homework to do on the nat gas industry.

Friday hasn't been the best day for the market in recent months. Tomorrow's job report (8:30 am Eastern) could be a rim-rattler.

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