Friday, June 4, 2010

This is the bottom?

Dow Jones 9,931.97 -323.31 -3.15%
NASDAQ 2,219.17 -83.86 -3.64%
S&P 500 1,064.88 -37.95 -3.44%


Hungarian bottom (Debreczeni Zita at right). Bad jobs report. Kaboom! Sure, maybe today's selloff was an overreaction, but explain why the up days this week were low on volume and today's drop came on massive volume?

The outflow continues. I saw some incredibly brave buying (and refusal to sell) in UNG for most of the day. Thankfully, I didn't chase, and once it hit 8.47, it was mostly downhill from there. That was one of the few good-news stocks today for longs. A week ago I would've been relishing today with a position in VXX and maybe FAZ. Still don't trust financials, particularly with the the market now in the Post-Stimulus age.

When AAPL is selling off like cheap wine, there are definite problems. Naturally, high fliers like BIDU and IMAX have no footing when the ledge is only big enough for kings like AAPL.

• AAPL 255.96 (-7.15 -2.72%). Beyond ugly after rising early and cutting through the teeth of a vicious, bloody open. AAPL sank from 261.90 to 254.63 and struggled to stay near 256 the rest of the day. I wanted shares below 260 and I got my chance. May still open a position before afterhours session ends. WWDC starts next week, which should be bullish, but don't be surprised if shares sell off on the news of the iPhone 4G.

• BIDU 73.20 (-3.46 -4.52%) down big. So was IMAX 16.12 (-1.05 -6.12), which is heading toward Flash Crash levels. Enticing? Yeah, if you forget that there's nothing close to an Avatar on IMAX's plate. The next true blockbusters are coming next summer and the summer after that. If you don't agree, go drink some Kool-Aid out of a McDonald's Shrek glass and enjoy yourself.

• DNDN 40.84 (-2.53 -5.83%). Pounded and pounded since hitting the 50s when Provenge was approved by the FDA. At some point, DNDN will escalate with or without the market simply because of the math. Provenge's projections are off the charts, but if shares are back to the 20s by the time the treatment is in hospitals, I'd rather enter there than here at 40.

• F 11.50 (-0.46 -3.85%) is also dipping near Flash Crash levels. A steal below 11 unless auto sales drop. The jobs report today hurt Ford as much as any American company. It's been six straight months of rising sales for Ford. Now the bias is turning against it.

• FXE 119.28 (-1.94 -1.60%) struggled today even though Hungary isn't part of the Eurozone.

• FXI 38.36 (-0.94 -2.40%). Another breather for one of the hottest overseas ETFs. The housing bubble looms overhead as a dark, dark cloud. As a result, US Steel (X) dropped 7.27% to 41.97.

• GLD 119.19 (+1.23 +1.04%). An entity unto itself as currencies around the globe lose value and favor.

• GOOG 498.72 (-6.88 -1.36%). Still no stopping Google's growth into mobile advertising and smart phones.

• GS 142.25 (-1.79 -1.24%) and C 3.79 (-0.17 -4.29%) bit the dust, but there has to be a little optimism on the relatively small loss for Goldman. FAS took a blast in the face, dropping 2.91 (-12.04%) to 11.50 while FAZ gained 12.12%.

• Euro banks NBG 2.33 (-0.18 -7.20%), IRE 4.72 (-0.22 -4.45%) and STD 8.95 (-0.82 -8.42%) were mauled.

• Meanwhile, the natural gas sector was buoyant at the open despite across-the-board declines. Most nat gas stocks rose and were in the green for awhile before profit-takers left the vicinity as Obama's proclamation to "embrace" clean energy faded after nearly two days. UNG 8.18 (+0.17 +2.12%) hung tough before selling off late in the day.

• Cramer's newly-touted natty gasser, WPRT, closed at 17.23 (-0.09 -0.52%). A dip to 16.61 gave Cramericans a chance to get in at a decent entry price. The only natty gassers on my list of 39 to finish positive were CLNE 16.76 (+0.19 +1.15%), KWK 12.25 (+0.13 +1.07%) and UNG. The two-day run had to end sometime, especially with 20%-plus gains in a few issues.

• In addition to FAZ, VXX tore it up, gaining 10.18% to 31.14. SCO 16.53 (+1.40 +9.25%) hammered the oil bulls, and TLT 97.79 (+2.56 +2.69%) favored those seeking safe harbor.

• BP 37.16 (-2.11 -5.37%) is faring better than I expected. The CEO's flippant remarks today were about as incredibly stupid as could be imagined. He did shareholders no favors. Maybe it's by design. Maybe BP wants to buy back shares at a lower price. Maybe they really do expect to dole out dividends, that the Fed won't have the clout to order non-payment to shareholders. With this kind of arrogance, it's no wonder they ran roughshod through sensible safety boundaries in the Gulf.

• If you hate BP enough, you might've enjoyed betting against it through SCO. What a killer trade that's been for nimble traders. 

So, do you really believe this is the end of the latest dip?

I don't. As if what we believe matters. Just enjoy each bottom as they come.



Photo: on205th.com

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