Same as it ever was?

6:55 am (Hawaii) Finally awake and conscious after the alarm went off five hours ago. Long, busy weekend can do that to me. Not that I was anticipating a big move for the market or precious metals or AAPL or anything. I don't see any news regarding the national debt ceiling and Congress. I don't see any news about changes in the Middle East. In fact, unless something new surfaces, my attention is on the start of gold futures contracts trading at the Hang Seng Hong Kong in two days. It probably won't send tremors through the global market, but gradually, it could usurp much of the iron first held by London and New York on metals trading. Otherwise, Hang Seng Hong Kong wouldn't have gold futures trade EIGHTEEN 15 HOURS a day.

ZSL leads my metals list with a 5.9% gain, already up from 20.64 when I logged on to 20.83 now. Major volume in the past couple of minutes. Make that 20.90, a HOD. That means Spot Silver is getting crushed. If we see 30 there, I'll be ready to pounce on more physical. I thought we might see 30 last week, and there's a real chance it could dip to 27. But a 29-34 range is reasonable, all things considered. Crude Oil is down, now at 97.76. Spot Gold is at 1491, off its HOD of 1504. Dollar is down, too, which doesn't exactly make sense with Gold down.

So SCO is up, as are TWM, GRS, PSAU, NUGT ... that's right, gold miners are up again. If miners truly are leading indicators, that would explain silver plays dragging along and gold plays chugging rather than dipping as badly. Not all silver plays are down; PAAS is up 0.7%. But the worst on my list are AGQ (163.58) and EXK (8.50).

I remain 100% cash.

Update 7:20 am (Hawaii) Apmex is selling "just listed" fractional silver coins, so great, right? But at least one blog is touting these fractionals as cheap and a way to avoid paying way-high premiums. I looked and found that the prices of these fractionals are just as bad as the premiums on ASEs.

1/10 oz APMEX Mercury Dime Silver Round .999 Fine, $6.73 (check/wire), $6.93 (credit card)
With Spot Silver at 34.10, how is this Apmex price any good? At Spot, this Apmex dime silver round would be 3.41. Does it make any damned sense to pay DOUBLE the spot price?

The 1/4 oz is no better. None are.

1/4 oz APMEX Standing Liberty Quarter Silver Round .999 Fine
They're charging $13.06 (check/wire) for something that is 8.53 at spot. Fuck that.

1/2 oz Sunshine Minting Silver Round .999 Fine
APMEX is charging 20.84 (check/wire) for a coin that is actually 17.05 at spot. Another ripoff.

I don't mind anything that anybody sells. It's a free market in that sense. But any blog that touts this stuff as great to have, "not having to pay the $8 premiums on Silver Eagles," much more liquid when the world ends, blahblahblah ... why the hell would anyone tout something as being cheaper than the pre-existing premium ... when Apmex is clearly selling these fractionals exactly AT premium, percentage-wise?

They're pretty coins. They're just not cheaper than ASEs by any stretch. Be careful of misleading blogs. Especially if you're looking for a good deal like me.

Update 7:41 am (Hawaii) Even a regular peon like me can understand this much: The Chinese ain't joking around about the future. When they make moves like this, they follow through, and it explains the bounce in some gold plays today. Shanghai cutting margin limits on silver ... I've posted this before, but it's worth repeating. Are changes in margin requirements limited to one time only? Not usually. I'm as keen on Wednesday (May 18) and the birth of Hang Seng gold futures as much as ever.

Update 10:18 am (Hawaii) Mostly ignored price "action" today. AAPL dropping below 340 is interesting. Spot Silver at 33.63 means physical is lower, but is physical truly and fully discounted here? I bought a Scottsdale stacker (10 oz) on Friday at $387. It's now going for $373. Can't say I'm shocked, figuring that Spot could drop to 30 soon. The Academy hand-poured 10-oz bar is going for $379. These are the lowest prices I've seen since I've been visiting Scottsdale's site in two or three weeks.

Spot at 30, a possibility, would mean a stacker at $340 maybe. And a hand-poured at $350 maybe. No rush here. My dry powder is ready, but limited. Smart shopping is key.

The 10-oz Engelhard bar is going for $396 (credit card), another recent low. ASE (delayed delivery to June 17) is going for 41.32 (credit card). Premium remains high, in the $8 range, for ASEs.

I'm glad I got a teeny bit of physical gold on Friday. Gold is the one place that was geared for a bit of stability, and I'm leaning more that direction with Asia hungry for more physical and the aforementioned gold futures opening up in less than 48 hours on the Hang Seng.

I never cared much for gold or PMs in general until this year, but demand is demand and supply is limited. Same with Crude Oil, though it was down 2.6% today. Can Obama beat the Crudesters down lower? Hard to say ... if Israel does attack Iraq at some point, I don't think the US would get heavily involved. An Israeli win would be bullish for the US economy via lower crude price (theoretically), but any US involvement would rewrite the script completely and shit could hit the fan.

Global Village, indeed.

Update 10:30 am (Hawaii) I played ZSL late in the session, in at 21.39, out at 21.46. Unwilling to let it slide afterhours. It dipped to 21.30, but is now at 21.60. Afterhours is always a tricky alley to navigate, neanderthals looking to stab you in the eye with infected needles and shit. Get through that, you can make a mint. Spot Silver now at 33.50. 33 could be next, then 32 ... 31 ... 30 ... and boing-o!

Some hideous declines in silver plays or, depending on your point of view, awesomely cool buying opportunities. (After you, of course, after you.) AGQ at 158.06, near the LOD. EXK 8.31, -7.25%. (I  don't remember the last time Endeavour was this cheap.) SLV at 32.75 (-4.8%). UCO at 45.62 (-4.6%). AG 17.20 (-4.4%). PSLV 15.58 (-2.9%). XG 9.34, -2.4%. SIL 23.22 (-1.5%). SLW 33.71 (-1.1%).

Top gainers on my Metals List: ZSL, SCO, TWM, GRS, TRE, NGD, GG, EGO, NUGT ... mainly gold plays. Congrats to you gold bugs. I'm coming around, as I was bound to in time. I'm too skeptical of all things not to.

Update 2:52 pm (Hawaii) Spot Silver bounced off 33.50 and is at 33.92 with Sydney and Hong Kong open now. I've been reading and watch videos about the market, about physical prices and it's interesting to compare prices and opinions. Apmex is clearly not the only dealer to charge a massive premium on fractional silver bullion. Doesn't make me want to go and buy a bunch of their coins, though. Still doesn't make enough sense to me, spending more than $6 on a 1/10th oz silver fractional that is actually worth 3.39 at Spot. With Apmex's emphasis on these overpriced fractionals, maybe this is a sign that the physical market has peaked, i.e. JUMPED THE SHARK. I hope not. 

Worst-case scenario: Spot drifts lower until it hits 30, then straight to 27, then back to 19, where this massive momo run began. It would be ugly, but physical at 19 would be a treat. 

About fractional coins again: if that many people are convinced that dollars and common US mint coins are going to be useless in the event of a global currency collapse, why not use divisible coins like the one at QSB? It can be chiseled into quarter-coins, if desired. The whole coin itself goes for just $37+ on the site, or $3.22 over Spot. None of this wicked 40-50% premium that Apmex charges. 

Mike Maloney in 2010 on the unlikelihood of government confiscation