8:18 pm (Hawaii) Yeah, really. A sane person would have gone to sleep and let the market do its thing, trusting in the Big Silver Bounce after the fall from 49 to 32, trusting in crude oil with Iraq threatening to limit supply and Daffy Quaddafi lighting up refineries in his neck of the woods. Yup. Sleep would be good.
But I don't sleep unless really sleepy, and by trading through today's market, I lost a lot of money. Had I left my positions in AGQ and UCO alone, here's what I would have:
AGQ: bought at 203, currently 222. That would be a gain of $19/share.
UCO: bought at 51.40, currently 52.41. That would be $1/share gain.
I'd be up $2,300 in just 24 hours. Instead, I made just $440 or so. How? Trying to catch the perfect entry point over and over in AGQ ... buying insurance on crude (SCO) cost me $200 ... and then I sold UCO for a small loss.
There is thesis and there is conviction. I am 95% thesis and 5% conviction. Not a good level of balance.
On top of that, Spot Silver is exploding overnight and is at 39.50. I'm happy for my teeny physical silver, but now it's even harder to buy physical, and I am 100% cash, unwilling to hold AGQ overnight. I just didn't have the faith it takes to hold in the face of the tyrannical CME mafia. Such is the life of a pilot fish.
Does Spot hold up until the opening bell stateside? Or will CME come in with another cheap shot to the testicles? Crude oil is holding its ground at 104.25 while the Dollar has dropped to 74.68. I smell manipulation in the air, just don't know where just yet. They won't let crude get much higher, so I'm still expecting a series of margin requirement hikes from CME.
Update 9:48 pm (Hawaii) Holy smokes, the hand-poured silver 10-oz bar by Academy is now $426 over at Scottsdale Silver. It was below $400 last week. I missed my chance for a discount!
Their 10-oz Stacker is now $430. I missed that at sub-$400, too. If there's another dip coming (and I think there will be one), I'm not going to hesitate next time.
Update 10:44 pm (Hawaii) Learning about silver coins tonight. It's a trip to find out that bars are generally unpopular compared to coins. I've seen some cool looking bars at Scottsdale Silver, but as this minter points out, even circulated Apmex bars are not really wanted by Apmex itself. The minter, Quality Silver Bullion, explains that the silver in the bar is worth more to him when he makes rounds rather than trying to sell the bar. Sad. The bar is beautiful, but the reality is coins are much easier for everybody to afford and handle. A 10-oz or 100-oz bar not so much.
No comments:
Post a Comment