Pacific tension

Sendai, Japan

6:44 am (Hawaii). Twelve hours ago, I was anticipating the ME Day of Rage, iPad 2 debut and the specter of a sliding market. Since then, it's been all about the devastating 8.9 magnitude earthquake and aftershocks, and the destructive series of tsunami in Japan. In the islands, we had an 11 pm earthquake on the Big Island, where volcanic activity has returned recently, and a 3 am watch for a potential tsunami due to the Japan quake. No major tsunami hit, but the tension was unprecedented.

When a 1946 tsunami hit the islands, there was absolutely no warning, no Pacific-wide system. Since the 1960s, things changed and the system was built out. But the fear of destruction drove people into stores to stock up on food. They lined up by the hundreds at the gas pumps in the middle of the night. It was good business for those merchants, of course.

Haven't kept track of the market open, but AAPL has bounced off the 345 level (again) and was trading at 348+. I wonder if the local malls and Apple stores will be open by 5 pm, when the world's favorite toy will be unveiled.

Update, 7:01 am (Hawaii). So, the Day of Rage has arrived and crude oil is down. I'm glad I stayed in 100% cash all week. There were potential winners along the way of domestic equities wreckage. But there were also a lot of deceptive plays, from silver to crude.

Watching video of the destruction of Japan last night, I saw a refinery belching flames hundreds of feet into the sky. Didn't even think ahead to the possibility of US refiners benefiting from the situation, and some are now up 5% and more.

Some of yesterday's bearish plays, like TZA and EDZ, are in the red today. Both nosedived in the past hour-plus while the markets have spiked up. SPY and QQQQ are soaring.

Sendai, Japan

Update, 1:52 pm (Hawaii). I was asleep this morning before premarket, which is pretty sad, but I was worn out. Until I can change my sleep pattern and sleep a good 5-6 hours before the opening bell, it is what it is. I would've taken a closer look at AAPL, which dipped to its 50-day moving average yesterday (345) and this morning. Then it ran up to 352. I opened a position at 352+ afterhours. Comfortable enough but I'm not trying convince myself that I bought at a bottom somehow. My guess is AAPL runs to 360. If global turmoil isn't excessive, AAPL can run to 370 maybe. Sprinkle in higher crude oil and AAPL can easily revisit 345 and 340. In that case, I'd open a small, but promising position in UCO or SLW.

While crude slipped and UCO waffled in the red today, silver bounced just as Le Fly and his PPT predicted. I try not to think of silver and silver stocks (and ETFs) as something that can really be appreciated by charts, there's no question that traders have turned silvery stuff into toys and vehicles for profit. So it will be subject to "overbought" and "oversold" labels like NFLX or BP or AAPL.

As I mentioned before, UCO or silver will play a role in trading for me as a hedge of sorts for a long position like AAPL. Question is whether I open a position as a hedge before afterhours trading ends in an hour. I wonder if the tipping point is already here in crude. The Saudis have squashed feeble protestors — the kind who aren't literally hungry and pissed the way the mobs in Egypt and Libya were/are. They've given citizens free money in addition to a relatively enabled life already in the Kingdom of Saud. Anything can happen this weekend, but with that regime in control and military powers closing in on Libya, the odds of crude price slipping away are shrinking. I never believed the Fed would allow crude to get much higher, more so now than ever. I know I could be wrong, but if I don't hedge over the weekend, I won't fret.

Update, 3:01 pm (Hawaii). No hedge, just long AAPL.

AAPL, 1 year, daily

Touch the 50-day MA = Midas touch?

Friday reading
N.Y. Times: Even mobsters-turned-ranchers like silver bullion (Mar 11 2011)
Washington Times: Utah legislature goes for gold, silver as currency options (Mar 11 2011)
Turd Ferguson: Another up week in silver (Mar 11 2011)
The News: iPad 2 finally hits shops in U.S. (Mar 11 2011)
Slash Gear: NYC student first in line for iPad 2, sells spot for $900 (Mar 11 2011)
CNBC/Kudlow Report: Nuclear officials have lost control of 2 plants in Japan (Mar 11 2011)
L.A. Times: Japan trying to prevent meltdown at nuclear plant (Mar 11 2011)
The Australian: 'No health hazard' as evacuation call goes out (Mar 11 2011)
Gideon Rachman: A history of Japan's earthquakes (Mar 11 2011)
The Age: Saudi protests 'tempest in teacup' - Prince Alwaleed (Mar 11 2011)
AP: 'Tightening noose' on Gadhafi (Mar 11 2011)
Business Journal: Analysts see 600,000 iPad debut sales (Mar 11 2011)
TUAW: iPad now available online (Mar 11 2011)
Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tsunami damage reported at Keehi (Mar 11 2011)
Reuters: Hawaii orders evacuations (Mar 11 2011)
Associated Press: Thousands roam Tokyo streets, stations after quake (Mar 11 2011)