Thursday, March 24, 2011

International lover (of Apple)

iPad 2 line in Australia
(photo: Beau Giles/Flicker)


2:02 pm (Hawaii). Might be feeling queasy in the morning. Opened a position in AAPL afterhours. Catalysts are not massive, but added together, worth the risk: 1. RIMM choked on earnings today, 2. iPad 2 international launch tomorrow. Rumor of QE3 is just a rumor. I'm not relying on that. Between the short-term low (326) and high (365), AAPL is right about in the middle of its trading range. I don't consider this much of a timely position, not much edge. But I like the advantages just enough.

Ruled against entering WNR for now. Today's small pullback was an opportunity, but it could get better in the morning. Or worse. Willing to wait. Same with silver plays. Though the big picture is still bullish (SLW, EXK, PAAS, SLV), the short-term yanking is too much pain. The selloff could continue overnight and beyond tomorrow's opening bell. I'm 33% cash now.

(photo: Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald)

(photo: Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald)

(photo: Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald)

The Australian: Young and old queue in Sydney heat for Apple iPad 2 (Mar 25 2011)
TUAW: iPad 2 lines across the globe (Mar 25 2011)
The Guardian: While you were sleeping... Australians end long wait for iPad 2 (Mar 25 2011)
Flicker/Beau Giles: iPad 2 Australia launch (Mar 24 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Jason Schwarz: Apple's run poised to resume (Mar 24 2011)
Bloomberg: Japanese stocks climb for first time in 3 days (Mar 24 2011)
Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald: iQueue test for Apple fans who line up overnight for iPad 2 (Mar 24 2011)
Apple Insider: International iPad 2 lines form (Mar 24 2011)
9 to 5 Mac: NZ, Australia show 2-3 week shipping estimate (Mar 24 2011) US shipping adjusted
Eric Jackson/Forbes: 6 things analysts are missing about Apple (Mar 24 2011) 100M iPad 2 sales? North Carolina data center? China? NFC payments rev stream?
Asymco: Analysts: Apple's growth next year to drop to half of what it could obtain during the recession (Mar 24 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Michael K. Dawson: Another day, another Apple NFC rumor (Mar 22 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Paul Zimbardo: Apple: A better buy due to AT&T acquiring T-Mobile (Mar 21 2011)

And "way back" with Apple bear Reggie Middleton ...
Huffington Post: Empirical evidence of Android eating Apple (Aug 17 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: Dissecting the Apple flash crash (Sept 29 2010)
"Apple is a company that derived 70% of its profit from one single product (iPhone) that is beseiged by very capable competition from all sides. ... Even with Apple firing in all cylinders, margins are bound to come down due to Android's success."
BoomBustBlog.com: Reggie Middleton wasn't the ONLY openly Apple bear in the blogosphere, was he? (Oct 18 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: Reggie Middleton takes the challenge to Goldman Sach's Apple proclamation one step further (Dec 15 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: The tablet pricing wars have commenced (Mar 7 2011)
BoomBustBlog.com: Shorting Apple and why software developers can make more money on Android (Mar 16 2011)


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