Monday mourning

3 am (Hawaii). People will move on. Somehow, it is in our nature to endure the worst events and move forward. Disasters, catastrophes, tragedy are unavoidable whether they happen domestically or far away in Japan. What is also unavoidable is the in-your-face video footage of the carnage that continues to strike the people of Japan following Friday's quake and tsunami.

The US market is handling things fairly well, all things considered. Possibly, the weekend gave traders a chance to digest all the suffering abroad. While the Japanese deal with nuclear meltdowns and demolished towns, Saudi Arabia has increased its military presence in Bahrain. Those guys ain't foolin' around for a second. Is it bullish or bearish for oil? I think oil will be capped primarily by the Fed in one way or another. Four-dollar gasoline cannot be allowed to prevail for very long, so going long UCO here is something I will not do.

Meanwhile, iPad 2 sales are big time from what I've seen here in Honolulu, and the lines across America were outlandish. Great strategy by Apple, as usual, to prevent pre-orders, thus stirring up traffic and buzz in malls everywhere.

AAPL shares, which were down to 350 in pre-premarket a few hours ago (out of reach for peons like me), are now trading at 354 and climbing. My watch list was as low as 30% green, but is now 34% with 49% red. Lots can happen before the opening bell, but all things considered, the market is giving Apple its due. If there is no announcement about iPad 2 sales at some point today, that might spur a mini-selloff, but no matter what, the numbers will be robust.

Update, 5:13 am (Hawaii). Market vs. AAPL? Market wins, at least for now. Though AAPL is up fractionally, it has been all lower lows since topping 356 after the opening bell. I got out at 352.79 (stop loss) for a break-even on my trade. It's a slightly bitter pill to swallow after seeing all the enthusiasm and lengthly lines at the Apple store over the weekend. Had I gotten out above 356 today, it would've been a nice, small profit. Sure, AAPL might finish above 353 by day's end, but it's a struggle against mammoth selling pressure. Some of the dump-offs are major as traders simply run for the exits in a declining market. Nasdaq is now down 1.14%.

The choice to not sell at 356 or 355 makes this solely my own fault. No conspiracy theories here. Maybe too much optimism considering the weakness today in the market. It's too bad. I hadn't been this optimistic in some time, but a sell at 355+ would've been a healthy and balanced response. There will be other opportunities to re-enter, just probably not this morning.

Update, 5:30 am (Hawaii). AAPL went north of 353 for a few minutes, but is now back at 352.59. 27% of my watch list is green, 70% red, as lopsided as it's been this morning. Nasdaq down 1.18%. What's worked this morning?

TVIX 50.19 +7.8%, TSO 25.82 +5.3%, TZA 43.02 +4.2%, VXX 34.25 +3.7%, QID 54.20 +1.9%, EDZ 21.79 +1.6%.

Precious metals a mixed bag. PHYS and SLV are up. GLD is up. But PAAS and SLW (-2.5%) are down.

Zero Hedge: Precious metals morning summary (Mar 14 2011)