Friday, November 9, 2007

Abstaining from eye candy

Crocs. lululemon athletica. Those are just two of the sugar-loaded treats that could beckon people like me who like the products and growth. But like any cavity-creating demon, these stocks are capable of striking the nerves quickly and causing massive pain both in the head and in the wallet.

As much as I saw tremendous gains in smaller cap retail like Crocs and lululemon over the past few months (gains that I never capitalized on!), retail is dead to me. Companies are fine, but the stocks will not move very far. Crocs had a nice bounce today after being oversold into the mid 30s. But for the stock to go beyond the 40s will take a number of catalysts. The one good piece of news for the stock is that the "underpromise/overdeliver" mantra is in place. A patient CROX shareholder will be rewarded. I'm not one of them, though.

All the insider selling that followed guidance raising should've been yellow flags for loyal longs, which I once was. Sure, it wasn't just that the board was making mucho bucks. Anyone who invested in CROX early had every opportunity to cash out big. But in hindsight, the insider sales were the tip of the iceberg, the one that cracked at the slightest bit of warning and warming.

And this is a company that has huge revenues. The other growth toddlers like China Digital TV, Longtop Financial, etc. haven't even proven their worth yet. For now, I'm interested in riding the real powerhouses when the rally arrives. If the market can stabilize with a bullish trend, maybe then I'll explore the mid- and small-cap growth stocks. But I'm not assuming that will happen, and even if it does, I'm all about quick profit-taking. Watching paper profits evaporate has a way of leaving an impression.

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