I spent a good number of hours the other day observing fundamental numbers of 40 natural gas stocks and looked that their charts for good measure. Today and tomorrow, I'll take a broader look at more stocks, some that I like and some that seem interesting on the surface. There may seem to be no reason to study Apple at this point, but that's why I like doing this homework. Appearances aren't enough, and even if fundamentals and technicals translate one way, the market doesn't care. But I like to prepare anyway, said the ant to the elephant.
Apple Inc.
Profit margin: 21.15%
Operating margin: 29.38%
Return on Assets: 18.72%
Return on Equity: 33.97%
Revenue: 51.12B
Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy): 48.60%
Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy): 89.80%
Total Cash: 23.16B
Total Debt: 0.00
Shares Outstanding: 909.94M
Float: 903.33M
% held by Insiders: 0.65%
% held by Institutions: 72.50%
CEO: Steven Jobs, 0.00
COO: Timothy Cook, 1.60M
CFO: Peter Oppenheimer, 1.40M
Sr. VP: Scott Forstall 1.20M
Sr. VP: Robert Mansfield, 1.20M
Candlestick analysis: "Sell Confirmed" on Friday at 258.21 (American Bulls)
Summary: An A+ company if there ever was one. The recent earnings report wasn't just a home run. It was a grand slam that I doubt any company can match — ever. That includes Apple. It may also have marked a top in this run since March 2009. If the global economy slows to a halt, AAPL will suffer for no reason, really, just as it was beaten down to 78 little more than a year ago.
AAPL 5-day chart (15-minute bars)
This was a roller coaster of a week. The announcement of 2 million iPads sold in just two months surged shares up at warp speed, but ultimately, the market beat AAPL back down. I wanted shares below 260 and I got my wish rather than chasing at 264. I opened a small position at 255.30 just before afterhours closed on Friday.
AAPL 2-day chart (5-minute bars)
Deterioration began on Thursday, met by some bulls at 261, but resumed on Friday with a middling jobs report. I hesitate to assume that Apple sales will tail off simply because only 41,000 jobs were added in May by the private sector. As long as the US is not losing jobs — 500,000 a year ago — iPads and the new iPhone G4 will be hot merchandise.
AAPL 6-month (daily)
None of us should be shocked if and when AAPL plunges (again) to 250, 245, 240, 235 ... Mutual funds are reportedly low on cash. If we have a double-dip recession, they'll hit their most profitable holdings and AAPL will take a major hit again. That's why I re-entered with a small position and will exit quickly if Monday turns into a crash. Maybe we get a dead-cat bounce.
AAPL 2-year (weekly)
If we are in for another serious dip — with slowly improving numbers in the US, I don't think we dip all the way to March '09 lows — this is what AAPL is capable of. A total reversal back to 80 would be shocking, but in the realm of possibility. It's the reason why I like AAPL more than any stock, but will never marry it.
AAPL 5-day vs. VXX, QID
I've found VXX to be an excellent hedge pairing with AAPL. The times I've tried trading VXX as a stand-alone have been mediocre at best. Viewing VXX from a further perspective, it's a true anchor while the market whipsaws AAPL. I've always handled VXX as a hour-by-hour, minute-by-minute beast. Now, I'm starting to consider it more like an insurance policy that should be filed and put away for the next several months (or years) while the global economy finds some kind of stability. Note that VXX outperformed QID (short Nasdaq ETN).
Instead of viewing VXX as that unstable, evil bitch who would backstab you in a second, consider her as a great guardian of your gate in violent, furious times.
No comments:
Post a Comment