Now? Every analyst in sight is raising his price target. The pressure on the buy side is strangely positive. The more I think about it, the stranger it seems. The less I think about it, the more I can digest and move on and ... reload my position? I sold half yesterday to reduce risk, fine and dandy, but that was 7 points ago. If the Apple train is going up, up, up, I'm jumping on for the ride.
More updates coming through the day. Sticking to one post only, if possible.
Update, 3:39 am: AAPL surging with increased volume in premarket, blasting through 348 right to 349. If the fundies are starting to grab up shares now, retail buyers won't get another shot at sub-350. That's a big if.
Update, 4:39 am: Showed some strength in that premarket surge, but petered out above 350. Round numbers, human psychology, yadayadayada ... AAPL was still in the 348-349 range before the bell, but once it rung, shares slipped to 347 and have been slipping since. More sellers than buyers? Fundies waiting it out as retail traders panic and/or stop-loss orders trigger en masse? Probably yes on both. My chance to sell at 350 has probably passed, so I'm ready to unload my half-position at a minor loss with AAPL now at 344.22. Sure, I was greedy, but if fundies are going to stay away for long, AAPL could easily plummet back to the 330s. It's happened before, will happen again ... only remaining question would be, with so many analysts raising their targets above 410, it would just be a matter of time before the sharks fight with other sharks for those shares. There will be blood in the water one way or another. ... If AAPL stays in this range above 344, I might just let that half-position ride. I'm flexible like that.
Update, 5:33 am: My flexibility wore out and I dumped the half-position at 340.15 for a small loss. Not the way I planned to trade AAPL for the first time in a half-year, but I knew the odds were longer, that the ship was top heavy and due to tip over. After hitting yesterday's high (357 afterhours), my numbers told me it was due for a pullback. I'd expected a high of 352, and that was without Steve Jobs' health issues. The pullback could go back to 337 or 332. But it's also possible that the boat is just being cleared of weak hands, who are now overboard after jumping off just above 340. AAPL is back above 341. It would not surprise me to see shares stabilize between 340-345 for some time as retail traders take their profits, latecomers (like me) get shaken out, and the fundies start hoarding shares when the coast is clear. Volatility is going to stay with AAPL for some time. The faster hands will get the best deals.
Update, 6:13 am: Afterhours yesterday, following the stock halt and earnings announcement, the MMs ran AAPL from 341 (close) to 357. Then it simply plummeted to 344 before AH ended. They did the same thing this morning, running AAPL to 351 before it dropped going into the opening bell. There is simply not enough buying pressure; the price was fluffed up by MMs on both occasions. That's why I'm resisting the possibility of re-entering here. Until the fundies return in force to push AAPL up, it will tread water. Path of least resistance is to the down side. I should remember that next time I'm several bucks up on an overbought stock. This range will probably hold through options expiry on Friday.
Update, 12:17 pm: Guesstimate High 352; Actual High 357 (afterhours Tuesday). Guesstimate Pullback to 337 or 332; Actual Pullback to ___. AAPL hit 337 in the final minutes today before closing at 338. Is the selloff over? I slept peacefully after hitting the sack around 6:30 am, so I don't have a good feel for how shares traded in the final 3 1/2 hours. But the selloff was imminent and (yesterday and early today) I tried to buck my own prognostication, being the greedy pig I am. I remain in wait-and-see mode. One of the many lessons of my 1% loss in this trade: I was ahead and still lost. When AAPL was north of 345, I was in the green. So, hindsight being my sarcastic, loudmouth friend, it's clear that I should have used and stuck to stop-loss targets. Physical or mental, doesn't matter, should've stuck to 344 as a stop-loss. Better to break even or lose a tiny sliver than ride it down — unless I planned to hold this long term. I'd like to, but in this churning, choppy market, no thanks. All the higher price targets in the world could not stop the selloff. As I mentioned earlier, they can say AAPL will go to 3,000, but it sure as heck doesn't mean they're getting in today at 351 premarket. The "smart money" is waiting for panic to recede before taking all the shares it can at discounted prices. Until then, I'm going to watch, dipping in and out quickly, if at all, and exploring VXX as a lethal weapon in a blown-out market.
Update, 3:27 pm: I have a natural inclination and disposition for complexity. No, I am not claiming to be a genius. What I'm saying is I am attracted to chaos at some level. Example: instead of buying and holding AAPL at 95 to infinity*, I sold at 110 or so. Instead of buying and holding AAPL at 214, I sold at 257 (after riding it down to 195). No, instead of holding the mightiest force of technology available to the common man, I winged it up and down using VXX as a hedge occasionally. Sometimes it worked well. Sometimes it made no difference, a wash in the end. Back to disposition ... I took a look at VXX's rate of failure since last summer. Colossal. But examine the 1-minute chart from today's trading; VXX ran 5% up while AAPL faded.
Update, 4:39 am: Showed some strength in that premarket surge, but petered out above 350. Round numbers, human psychology, yadayadayada ... AAPL was still in the 348-349 range before the bell, but once it rung, shares slipped to 347 and have been slipping since. More sellers than buyers? Fundies waiting it out as retail traders panic and/or stop-loss orders trigger en masse? Probably yes on both. My chance to sell at 350 has probably passed, so I'm ready to unload my half-position at a minor loss with AAPL now at 344.22. Sure, I was greedy, but if fundies are going to stay away for long, AAPL could easily plummet back to the 330s. It's happened before, will happen again ... only remaining question would be, with so many analysts raising their targets above 410, it would just be a matter of time before the sharks fight with other sharks for those shares. There will be blood in the water one way or another. ... If AAPL stays in this range above 344, I might just let that half-position ride. I'm flexible like that.
Update, 5:33 am: My flexibility wore out and I dumped the half-position at 340.15 for a small loss. Not the way I planned to trade AAPL for the first time in a half-year, but I knew the odds were longer, that the ship was top heavy and due to tip over. After hitting yesterday's high (357 afterhours), my numbers told me it was due for a pullback. I'd expected a high of 352, and that was without Steve Jobs' health issues. The pullback could go back to 337 or 332. But it's also possible that the boat is just being cleared of weak hands, who are now overboard after jumping off just above 340. AAPL is back above 341. It would not surprise me to see shares stabilize between 340-345 for some time as retail traders take their profits, latecomers (like me) get shaken out, and the fundies start hoarding shares when the coast is clear. Volatility is going to stay with AAPL for some time. The faster hands will get the best deals.
Update, 6:13 am: Afterhours yesterday, following the stock halt and earnings announcement, the MMs ran AAPL from 341 (close) to 357. Then it simply plummeted to 344 before AH ended. They did the same thing this morning, running AAPL to 351 before it dropped going into the opening bell. There is simply not enough buying pressure; the price was fluffed up by MMs on both occasions. That's why I'm resisting the possibility of re-entering here. Until the fundies return in force to push AAPL up, it will tread water. Path of least resistance is to the down side. I should remember that next time I'm several bucks up on an overbought stock. This range will probably hold through options expiry on Friday.
Update, 12:17 pm: Guesstimate High 352; Actual High 357 (afterhours Tuesday). Guesstimate Pullback to 337 or 332; Actual Pullback to ___. AAPL hit 337 in the final minutes today before closing at 338. Is the selloff over? I slept peacefully after hitting the sack around 6:30 am, so I don't have a good feel for how shares traded in the final 3 1/2 hours. But the selloff was imminent and (yesterday and early today) I tried to buck my own prognostication, being the greedy pig I am. I remain in wait-and-see mode. One of the many lessons of my 1% loss in this trade: I was ahead and still lost. When AAPL was north of 345, I was in the green. So, hindsight being my sarcastic, loudmouth friend, it's clear that I should have used and stuck to stop-loss targets. Physical or mental, doesn't matter, should've stuck to 344 as a stop-loss. Better to break even or lose a tiny sliver than ride it down — unless I planned to hold this long term. I'd like to, but in this churning, choppy market, no thanks. All the higher price targets in the world could not stop the selloff. As I mentioned earlier, they can say AAPL will go to 3,000, but it sure as heck doesn't mean they're getting in today at 351 premarket. The "smart money" is waiting for panic to recede before taking all the shares it can at discounted prices. Until then, I'm going to watch, dipping in and out quickly, if at all, and exploring VXX as a lethal weapon in a blown-out market.
Update, 3:27 pm: I have a natural inclination and disposition for complexity. No, I am not claiming to be a genius. What I'm saying is I am attracted to chaos at some level. Example: instead of buying and holding AAPL at 95 to infinity*, I sold at 110 or so. Instead of buying and holding AAPL at 214, I sold at 257 (after riding it down to 195). No, instead of holding the mightiest force of technology available to the common man, I winged it up and down using VXX as a hedge occasionally. Sometimes it worked well. Sometimes it made no difference, a wash in the end. Back to disposition ... I took a look at VXX's rate of failure since last summer. Colossal. But examine the 1-minute chart from today's trading; VXX ran 5% up while AAPL faded.
AAPL 1-year daily (January 19, 2011)
AAPL vs. VXX 1-year daily (January 19, 2011)
AAPLvs. VXX 1-day, 1-minute (January 19, 2011)
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