Revisiting strategy

A week or so ago, I pinpointed (guessed) that AAPL would run to a near-term high of 352 before pulling back before or during earnings day. Well, things went quite differently with the news about Steve Jobs. Still, AAPL did hit 357 afterhours, if just for a few seconds, and has pulled back AH to 344.

My guess had been that AAPL would find a new floor around 337 or 332. It's almost impossible to get a read off AH trading, but if the fundies that are long stick in there based on today's astronomical earnings and guidance, 340 could be the new floor. I love guessing, but this is impossible to translate.

So, I'm holding my half-position, in no rush to sell or add shares. One thing is certain: the market is not comfortable with any negative news about Mr. Jobs' health, and that's a factor no shareholder can ignore or control. Ideally, he recovers fully and the company is at full strength. Without his day-to-day leadership, it's all about execution and profit margin, which will likely remain intact for the next year or more. No doubt that the road from 100 to 300 was much simpler to ride than the one ahead from 300 to 500 or 600 or even 900.

Whether AAPL can still double or triple from here in the next few years ... it's going to be tough without their marketing icon, Mr. Jobs. The products will still be cool. But media and marketing make a big difference in shareholder confidence. Groupthink, for better or worse, does matter. As someone who doesn't own an iPad, iPod or iPhone, that means paying more attention than ever to that immeasurable factor: Cool, or not Cool.