Monday, January 17, 2011

Tuesday strategy?

In the past, I've often traded AAPL short term in conjunction with VXX as a hedge. Mostly APPL along with a sprinkling of VXX. It worked well one day last spring while I was on the road, in my hotel room, sitting in the dark while CNBC blared and shares of everything sank. However, I was buoyed by that hedge move with VXX, and my overall account was barely in the red thanks to that decision. By the end of the day, AAPL had rallied significantly and I'd already sold out of VXX for a fairly good recovery.

It was insane. It was almost ... fun? Well, I wouldn't say it was sheer pleasure, but it taught me something about the unpredictability of the market when it comes to short-term trading.

In this instance, though, I went long AAPL on Thursday without a safety net. When the market opens tomorrow morning, VXX will be up big. (So will AAPL puts, but I'm not into options.) AAPL will be down big. AAPL will eventually recover, whether it takes a day, a week, a month or longer. But I do think a hedge should've been in place, and for overlooking the worst-case scenario, I will have to pay the price whether by selling at a loss or digesting a paper loss for "X" amount of time.

Tomorrow might still offer a profitable opportunity through VXX or puts, if that's your thing. How long will AAPL go down and stay there ... that's a question nobody can answer right now. I'm leaning toward playing some VXX.

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