But AAPL hit 355.05 in the first 15 minutes. Is it a buy here at 354? Hard so say. AAPL is roughly 5% off its recent low (338), which for me is a warning sign. Is the hype over iPad 2 really worth more than 5%?
SLW is also up nicely, bumping over 41 earlier (41.80) and retrenching back at 41.45 now. Sure, I wish I'd committed to a position over the weekend or even back on Thursday when shares dipped below 39 momentarily. But now is now. This is Monday. Still all cash on the outside looking in.
Other silver plays are doing fine. PAAS (38.43, +0.97%), SLV (32.77 (+0.64%), EXK (7.34, +2.23%). This morning's optimism is broad: BIDU, C, DIS, F, GLD, GOOG, LULU all up. LULU was on the brink of a selloff last time I gave it a look two weeks ago or so. When LULU is at insane levels, it remains one of the first signs of a market ready to pull back.
For the rest of the morning, not really feeling bullish or bearish. Just watching SLW for a possible 50% retracement of today's gain. That would put it at 41.21.
AAPL 50% retracement (today's gain) would be 351.60.
Update, 5:17 am (Hawaii). SLW exploding above 42. Is this truly the day of reckoning (delivery) for silver? Appears so, at least in the past 30 minutes. New retracement (50%) level is 41.37.
Update, 5:31 am (Hawaii). Turd Ferguson notes that silver has touched 33.75 three times in four days. Today is another instance of escalator up, elevator down from that level. SLW leveling off at 41.70 after touching today's high of 42.12. It did come down to 41.46 briefly, just above my retracement level. Still 100% cash here.
Update, 10:21 am (Hawaii). Back up from slumber. Silver sold off in the past 90 minutes from 33.85 to 33.35. However, SLW has gained from 41.45 to 42 in the past 30 minutes. Amazingly unexplainable. As I slept, SLW actually dipped and retraced today's gain 50% to 41.32 — just 5 cents below the price I was looking for (2:29 pm Eastern). It was a quite a bargain in hindsight. I can't make out the reason for the current surge though, now 42.05 as I type. I considered a limit buy order before I fell asleep, but decided against it in case the takedown was due to a brutal flash crash or global crisis.
This could be related to upcoming earnings or breakout-type buying, but it's reasonable that somebody knows something.
EXK, PAAS and SLV have also rallied. The rest of the market has meandered. More than half of my watch list is in the red now, though AAPL has stayed at the 353 level.
Update, 10:45 am (Hawaii). One of those rare moments when a stock can't stop going up. SLW just rocketed to 42.55, then sold off to the 42.30s. The MACD and stochastics lined up just as the stock began that launch from 41.45 or so. But my guess is this was a major short squeeze and/or somebody knows something about the coming earnings report. New retracement number (50% of today's gain) is now 41.59. Not expecting to see that in the final 13 minutes. No way.
Update, 10:58 am (Hawaii). New all-time high is now 42.69 for SLW, which is selling off a bit (now 42.55) shortly before the closing bell. New retracement price for today's gain is 41.66. Can't touch this here. It sells off so quickly, losing a nickel or dime within seconds once the sellers cash in on today's mammoth gains.
Monday reading
Jason Hommel: Storm has passed (Feb 28 2011) "How will they prevent silver from going to $500/oz.? They can't. ... If they let silver run fast to $500, say over six months, the dollar will be perceived as collapsing, and could continue to collapse to zero. But if they let silver continue to go up 'slowly' at only 30% per year, for the next ten years to take us to $500, this would create a worse problem."
Harvey Organ: Silver deliveries 21.25 million oz (Feb 28 2011) "... the situation at the silver comex is quite dire as they must resort to customer inventory to settle on the first day. Ladies and Gentlemen: the silver comex has no silver in the dealer category to settle upon our patient longs."
Zero Hedge: Jim Rogers says Saudi Arabia is lying again and silver is going to $50 (Feb 28 2011) "Gold will certainly go over $2,000 by the end of the decade, and silver will pass $50."
King World News: Ben Davies (Feb 28 2011) "Positive silver lease rates at this point are more a function of credit risks ... than egregious metals shortages. ... it is unlikely that we will experience commercial signal failure. ... it only takes a few short contract holders failing to deliver to set off a short squeeze."
Zero Hedge: Today's precious metal close banging moment brought by the fine people at the Comex (Feb 28 2011) "This blatant attempt to dump PMs into the pit close and have silver and gold trading on the books near the lows of the day merely confirms that 'someone' is truly desperate to avoid an avalanche of margin calls."
Turd Ferguson: A wild ride on the Globex (Feb 28 2011) "I'm more inclined to believe that today's Globex craziness is more directly related to this being 'put up or shut up day' in the March silver contract."
Dan Norcini (Trader Dan): CCI notches another new all-time high (Feb 28 2011) "There is a complete contradiction between the movements in the bond market and those of equity markets."
Kitco: Easing of Mideast turmoil could pressure gold prices (Feb 25 2011) "Seasonally, Epstein said gold and silver are going into a weaker period. ... in the last 15 years, gold prices from March 1-24 fell an average of $10 an ounce. Silver prices from the end of February to early April fell 13 out of the last 15 years."
King World News: Turk: Dollar ready to collapse, silver squeeze to continue (Feb 25 2011) "With this month's important options expiry now behind us, I'm looking for higher prices (this) week. Even though the March/May spread has flattened a little, the backwardation continues to grow to 2015. ... The short squeeze continues to develop."
Mac Slavo: US government will confiscate gold when it touches $2,000 (Feb 18 2011) - This allegedly involves a "red alert" e-mail posted by a blogger claiming that the Fed will take gold and silver to back a new world order currency. Yes, alarmist and fueled by conspiracists. But I read it anyway.
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