Powdered up

3:55 am (Hawaii). This premarket is quite green, a good thing no matter what a certain celebrity frog once said decades ago. Does it last? Hard to say, but it appears that the initial signs of illness, yesterday's chills, fever and barfage, have passed.

UCO is up 2.6% to 12.07 already as the mess in the Middle East continues. SLW, my preferred play on silver, is flirting with the 40-dollar mark, up 2.5%. Still more than a couple of bucks from its all-time high. I don't want to be out of this if the market goes positive after the opening bell, but chasing is not good, either.

No way I'd open a sizable position here with premarket's thin volume. I'll wait to see how the first 30 minutes shake out, but I can't help feeling like SLW below 40 is a major discount price. Either way, glad to be 100% cash.

50% retracement on this morning's gains: SLW 39.56, UCO 11.93.

Not messing with SLV any more. The earlier trade was a one-shot deal. Don't trust the banksters and the faux silver they claim to hoard in their vaults.

PAAS, another silver play, is now up 2.1% on tiny volume. Prefer SLW.

AAPL moving up quickly (+0.7%). Succession plan revealed today?

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Two oil plays top my watch list: UCO and USO. Everything else that was up nicely in premarket has nosedived. SLW, which was above 40 for awhile, tanked and is now 39.14 as futures fell just before the opening bell. This is exactly what I'm always extremely cautious about dipping in during PM after a day like yesterday. UCO is moving up, though, and it's doubtful it'll retrace much at all. Just a matter of time, though, before oil slows up.

Update, 6:33 pm (Hawaii). Wow, what a day. It's a shame I missed the ride. Yep, I was all set, figuring out entry points for SLW and UCO in the wee hours ... then slept for most of the next 10 hours. Woke up achy all over, little bug in the throat. Probably because I stayed up through the night and morning on Tuesday. Made money that day, no complaints, but my fatigue cost me today.

Now that I'm done with work and resting (finally), it's important to look back and see what could be done better, and what was done well. Then move on. I had entry points mentally for UCO and SLW, and sure enough, in the first, second hours of the session, oil and silver retraced. UCO pulled back just a bit more than 50% of its early gain. SLW pulled back all the way to 39.20, then worked steadily back over 40. I was asleep, then up, then asleep. Tried my best to keep track, but the body wouldn't cooperate.

So, while most of the market was in red, my watch list wasn't so bad, roughly 42 percent in the green, and those were mainly oil and metal stocks. Even after the initial explosion for SLW, the pullback gave me plenty of opportunity to enter below the 50% retrace level (39.56). However, my caution overwhelmed my logic, and I stayed asleep and didn't enter. SLW finished the day near its high at 40.92. What a miss.

Then UCO, which has very little in its way, used its ultra-crude oil fuel to rocket almost nonstop to the upside. No real chance for a pullback there, so I was disciplined. However, all factors considered, this was a no-brainer to buy with oil extremely bullish. However, I sat this out and missed the run to almost 13. UCO closed at 12.67. Another miss.

All in all, I'm glad I'm still 100% cash and made no negative trades today. I'm glad I didn't blindly open a position after hours, even in UCO, which was up 7% after a 9% gain yesterday. Due for a pullback, of course.

Thursdays, at least lately, have leaned more toward flat markets. I'm not expecting a big move up or down. I am looking forward to following through on strategy and exercising discipline. Making money in a down market ... it doesn't matter how much I was ready to push the buy button and make money. I simply did not. Good thing there will be another opportunity.

Doug Kass: Sideways market similar to 1953, '60, '94. Year will end where  it started. Good for opportunistic traders. Not so much for the buy-and-hold crowd.