Obviously, NTDOY.PK is not a forgotten vehicle by any means. In fact, since early December, Nintendo broke free from its trading range at $26 to vault into a massive run that has yet to find a ceiling. NTDOY closed at an all-time high of $52.60 on Friday, well above its moving averages and showing no signs of a slowdown.
The fuel to this run, of course, is the Wii. It remains out of stock and wildly popular in the doldrums of summer. Production of the best-seller isn't expected to pick up significantly for several more months, which means it will remain a low-supply/high-demand situation. A few weeks ago, I told myself that there would be time to pick up NTDOY shares since it was early summer. The real boost to sales, I concluded, would come in the fall in anticipation of robust Christmas sales. I was wrong.
Nintendo traded at $45 on that day (June 29), and I've missed the boat for cheaper shares. So much for trying to outsmart or calculate the timing of the market. It's more and more apparent, that with so many winning stocks out there in this bull market, buyers still gravitate early to companies with home run hitters like the iPhone, the Wii and, yes, Caymans.
Behind the products, of course, are superior cost controls and distribution systems. Nintendo's biggest plus in the war against the likes of Sony, Microsoft, and even Electronic Arts, is that it makes both consoles (Wii and DS) and games. Microsoft is in a league of its own, of course, but the Xbox is as good as its going to be for now, and it still can't beat the Wii in sales. Sony's PS3 has dragged in sales, and a $100 discount (announced last week) still won't make a more than a little ripple.
So there. Nintendo is a great stock to own. Buying at this level, though, will test the mettle of any believer. I'd like to see it come down to $50, but with the steady climb — the stock has not been prone to major volatility — it could just keep going up without a major pullback. That's what Wii domination has done for NTDOY believers.
For all its mystery and distance as an OB stock, I'm out of excuses to stay out. Besides, even with a minor pullback, the question might be, where will NTDOY be at year's end? I'm pretty certain it won't be $50 or $60. I see it at $70, perhaps $80. It's the same kind of anticipation I had about Apple in January, knowing that it would run from $90 to $125 by the time the iPhone was on the market.
I just hope to have the sense to buy and hold my shares this time around, of both AAPL and NTDOY.
Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long AAPL with just a narrow slice of the pie. He has no position in any of the other stocks mentioned in this story.
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