12:42 pm (Hawaii) This was a week of busy, busy work, so I didn't pay much attention to the market. Not like I normally do. So it's stunning to see silver march higher, unencumbered by the supposed interest of JP Morgan in seeing silver wobble and fall. Today's top gainer on my watch list is PAAS (42.70, +8.5%). EXK (12.48, +4.9%) SLV (39.93, +3.1%) and SLW (46.91, +3.1%) are insanely hot. Do I regret selling EXK, SLV and SLW three weeks ago?
Yes. Especially EXK, which I had at 8.75 and sold at 8.55.
UCO is a crude oil play I wish I'd entered. Seems like just a week ago when it was at 54. Just two months ago it was at 42. Today, UCO is at 64.06 (+5.3%) while a gallon of gasoline in Honolulu is as high as $4.37 (regular unleaded). Should I have bought a hundred shares just to hedge against the inevitable rise?
Yes.
Oh well. Coal in China cooled off. YZC (37.17, -5%) fell through the ice. HAIN, another recent runner, is down 4.5% (30.62). WNR, among the hottest oil refiner plays, is down 4.1% (17.65).
All in all, though, playing certain winners in a variety of sectors has worked in the past few weeks. Silver and crude oil worked despite or because of QE2. Is it too late to play UCO or SLW? After today's massive moves up, I'd say so, at least for the short term. Yet I might open that little position in UCO with the knowledge that if crude oil prices finally head down, lower gas prices means I'll break even in a sense. If gas prices continue to climb, UCO would make me some pocket change. Being 100% cash is reassuring, but I'm losing to inflation and UCO wouldn't require constant micromanaging.
All in all, 53% of my watch list is green while the market was fractionally down.
AAPL? down 1% to 334.82. No catalyst in the near term. Support at 326. A small position at that level could work, but if we get there too soon, we'd be too far away from earnings, and AAPL could test the next level near 300. I've held AAPL from 214 down to 195 before (and sold at 257), but I'd rather stay out and wait for the 300 scenario, unlikely as that may be.
Update 12:58 pm (Hawaii) Used to be sports highlights on ESPN made me go, "OH MY GOSH!"
Now it's the market, or rather, the rising price of crude. $112? OH MY GOSH! I'm eyeing UCO if it dips below 64. Sure it could gap up on Monday, but more likely, it'll give back half of its recent spike. The short-term ceiling had been 58 or so, so I'm expecting a pullback to 61 before the climb resumes.
Also, the recent selloff in WNR is more trader behavior than reflective of the crack spread, eloquently explained by Le Fly. Maybe the action in refiners is an omen of a pullback in the crude trade. Or maybe WNR is coiling for another big spring higher. My guess is the latter. A small position in WNR would not be unreasonable here.
Le Fly makes a good point about Cramer contradicting himself — refiners will blow out earnings estimates, but sell them anyway — but how about this ... maybe Cramer knows something we don't know. Maybe he knows the hedge funds that trade refiners want to take this play down to the near-term low (WNR 15,40, then 14.00), then roast all shorts on the way back up and above 19.50, the recent high. Really. Those mofos are greedy as hell and you know it.
CNBC: US oil settles near $113 (Apr 8 2011)
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