But with most of the market submerged in a sea of red early today, it was silver that remained hot, Christina Millian hot. SLV stayed green as SLW was temporarily underwater. Now the market is rallying a tad and SLV is up 1.8% to 40.28. SLW has come back and is up 1.7% (43.18). PAAS and PHYS are up, and so is EXK (+3.5% to 11.58). I like EXK, traded it once and found its wild swings too uncomfortable at the time.
AAPL is down slightly (333.65). UCO is up 1.2% (57.96), but WNR is struggling to stay up, down 1.7% to 17.62. WNR traded down below 17.40 briefly after the opening bell, quite a distance from yesterday's high above 18. It's a daytrader's toy. For everyone else, best to just commit one way or the other on crude oil prices and refiners, then refrain from watching the intraday action. It can be slightly nauseating at times, no different from riding an old boat over choppy waters.
My watch list was below 30% green earlier, but has drifted up to 46% now. Volume overall is anemic and confidence is still waning. If not for the onset of earnings season, this could easily go down the slope bit by bit. Instead, the market remains range-bound and crack spreads do little here to affect WNR, which had already doubled in the past few months.
8:27 am (Hawaii) Market is swaying a bit to the red, to the green, to the red. Low, low volume. AAPL has less than 8M shares today. But silver and crude oil are still healthy. Silver is above $41 an ounce! EXK is at 11.70 (+4.7%) and might return to 12 soon. GLD is up 1.2% to 143.66. SLV (+3.1%) and SLW (1.3%) are doing well.
UCO is at 58.28, up 1.8%. I remember seeing it at 57.17 early this morning.
WNR is flat after rallying from today's low. HOD was 17.96 after a mid-day rally in crude, which reached 108.55 a barrel and is now at 108.11. Volume picking up in the past several minutes.
11 am (Hawaii) Missed my chance to play silver's nice run today, but it was late in the day, potential profits were modest at best. I like that silver has my attention. I don't like that I hesitated to get in when SLV was at 40.79. It didn't take long to arch toward 40.86, then 41.00. Once it hit 41, it was straight to 41.08. I finally put an order in at 41.03 while SLV was at 41.06, but I cancelled the order before the closing bell. SLV then ran to 41.17 afterhours before pulling back to 41.08 last I checked.
Looking back, keeping a partial position in SLV instead of selling it all at 32+ would've been prudent. Sure, being in 100% cash gave me peace of mind, but I missed a 30% gain. Live and learn.
WNR was at 17.97 in AH last I checked. Small gain for the day and I need to consistently remind myself that slow and steady will do fine here. It doesn't have the volume of AAPL or even SLV, so the pin action is not the same. I'm ready to leave this position alone (rather than micromanage) and focus on daytrading SLV or SLW, or maybe one of the bubblish Chinese IPO stocks. Even UCO showed more action today. In and out worked fine for me in the past, when half the time I'd get out at break-even than wait around for the inevitable pullbacks.
I'm prepared to hold WNR through the rough patches on the way up, but I'll likely hold on a dip worse than today's unless the fundamentals of crude oil change. The notion of daytrading WNR is not bad. Today's range was mostly between 17.40 and 17.85 for the latter half.
Update 11:42 am (Hawaii) SLV zooming up AH to 41.35. Sure, it's fluff and the price could fall through thin ice in seconds. But for tiny peon traders, it's workable. We don't need to trade 10,000 shares. Our stuff flows in and out with relative ease. I just missed a 55-cent gain in a matter of 2 hours.
This easily could be described as a bubble, but what gives silver an overriding factor above previous bubbles is that there is real demand, a shortage of the shiny stuff. So when bloggers and "experts" legit and not so much claim that silver could climb to $50 an ounce, I listen. When they say $100 an ounce, I listen. Not so sure about $200, but I'm listening anyway.
With AAPL seemingly at a top and the market jittery, silver has been consistently the best play in the past few months. I caught 10% of the recent run from 30.
Update 12:08 pm (Hawaii) Catching up with Fast Money. They talked up silver again. Adami's been right about this. Now Kelly is saying gold will explode 51% based on the inflation issue in China. Investors there want to park their money somewhere; China will buy gold like they did in 2007, when the price rose 51%. He predicts $2,200 an ounce.
His logic makes sense, though I've never cared to buy GLD or anything gold-related very much at all. But now? On the radar. I've no pride about being original or smart. All that matters is the bottom line, and that involves a combination of risk management and timely allocation. As opposed to risk aversion and poor timing.
Quick glance: GLD is up 1.4% (143.87) while NGD is up just 0.2% (10.88). Homework time.
Update 12:08 pm (Hawaii) Catching up with Fast Money. They talked up silver again. Adami's been right about this. Now Kelly is saying gold will explode 51% based on the inflation issue in China. Investors there want to park their money somewhere; China will buy gold like they did in 2007, when the price rose 51%. He predicts $2,200 an ounce. His logic makes sense, though I've never cared to buy GLD or anything gold-related very much at all. But now? On the radar. I've no pride about being original or smart. All that matters is the bottom line, and that involves a combination of risk management and timely allocation. As opposed to risk aversion and poor timing.
Quick glance: GLD is up 1.4% (143.87) while NGD is up just 0.2% (10.88). Homework time.
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