Goldenfinger

4:12 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver opened strong in premarket (49) but has fumbled away those early gains. I'm out of silver, but watching. I like AGQ, though it truly moves like an athlete on steroids and coke. 20-cent moves in an instant, but generally up, now at 375. It was 372 when I started typing this paragraph. The MACD was changing course in a positive direction when I decided to just watch and get acclimated to the pulse of this beast.

Gold is rising above the 1540 threshold that Sir Turd wrote about recently. GLD, my little stocking of fun, is now at 150.50.

The market is generally okay. 51% of my watch list is green. AAPL is in the green, up 1.1%, but many of the miners are treading water or in the red.

I'll keep watching the PMs. Obviously, the movement in AGQ makes it more conducive to daytrading, but once it reverses field to the downside, there's no catching up. Locking in small, quick profits is key. Think Franco Harris or Larry Csonka, churning out 3 or 4 yards at a time, not trying to break it 80 yards in one play. That's right, Csonka and gold in the same sentence. Hey, those 1972 Dolphins were perfect, you know.

Update 4:21 am (Hawaii) What's interesting here is precisely what I've been reading about gold's action. While silver (AGQ, SLV) will gyrate up and down dramatically, gold tends to move more slowly, and lately, when it goes up, it stays there without the big pullbacks. That's what GLD is doing right now. Went from 149.80 to 150.30, then to 150.50. And now 150.58. Nice. Basically a staircase.

AGQ and SLV have basically identical charts. I like AGQ a little better, but there are certainly dangers there with anything that can drop 10-15 bucks in a split second. 

Update 4:40 am (Hawaii) Took a quick trade in AGQ and got smited. In at 373.44, out at 369.44 for a small loss. There was a pause, a strangely quiet few moments where AGQ was at 373+, and just as I bought, down it went. The MACD is now solidly below 0.0 and spiraling below 369 now. Lesson learned. 

My small GLD position remains positive with Spot Gold at 1541.90. It's not much of a (paper) profit so far, but it's as steady as AGQ is wild. (Now 366.86.)

Update 5:57 am (Hawaii) Can't say I'm a big fan of CNBC, even as it is the one channel that remains on here, muted 99% of the time. No question that today and in recent days, the swelling momentum against silver has been massive. Twice already this morning, traders, fund managers, whoever have been on air calling it a bubble. Maybe this is CNBC's "public duty," an attempt to protect mom-and-pop traders from sinking their life savings into a disaster waiting to happen. It would be admirable if only CNBC had its facts right. When a bimbo anchor spouts out crap off the teleprompter like, "There's no shortage of silver," I have to wonder if she's as dumb as she looks. Seriously. 

I wish that every single time an anchor or reporter or guest talking head claimed this, they'd also confirm numbers from Comex/JP Morgan and simply do their jobs as "journalists." But nobody on CNBC is willing to deal with that issue. They have to get paid, they have to keep the big wigs happy, and they don't want to piss off the wrong people. Unfortunately, their interpretation of the "wrong people" is turning upside down and they just don't realize it. The general public wants to know what is in those vaults. Why doesn't CNBC want to explore this, too? Every time the marijuana special airs, it's another triumph for sticky journalism and another defeat for CNBC as a true financial journalism entity. So much focus on "greed" and safe topics like Facebook, but not a trace of investigation of the vaults and the invisible silver that is naked shorted by JPM. 

So be it. I have no position in silver. But it's certainly annoying to face the baloney. Thank God for the mute button. 

Update 6:08 am (Hawaii) Gold exploding in the past several minutes. NGD went from 10.98 to 11.04, flatlined, then erupted to 11.17. I'd about given up on scouting it after it dropped below 11, but heavy buying ensued at noon Eastern. China effect in play? 

Spot Gold at 1546.80, all-time high. A 19-cent swing for NGD. Amazing. 

Boing boing!

Update 6:43 am (Hawaii) Spot Gold hit (it appears) 1550 and has pulled back a bit to 1548+. Nice. I'm watching NGD (11.20), UGL (ultra 2x), GDX (gold miners). There's also NUGT (miners bull 2x) and lot more, but I'm leaning toward liquidity. 

Update 6:56 am (Hawaii) Looking for NGD at 11.12 (retrace level of 38.2% from its low/10.98 to high 11.21). Not expecting it. Came down to 11.14, now 11.16 again. Might try a stink bid next time it drops. That selloff to 10.98 before the run was pretty surprising. 

Update 7:42 am (Hawaii) Spot Gold now 1558+. Yes, the economy is in dire straits, and yes, it's tough to see a great company like Apple struggle to get back to its high on the market. But in the world of precious metals, there's something assuring about gold reaching these kinds of highs. Looking at a new watch list of PMs and a few currencies, I'm in awe of some gold miners and ETFs. DGP is up 2.8% and still climbing. XG is up 2.2%, but the lack of volume spooks me. NUGT, a 2x gold miner ETF, is up 3%. NGD is consolidating intraday at 11.21. It has room to run to 11.30. 

Both NGD and EXK, at least in my mind, are brothers from a different mother. Small gold, small silver that have run hugely in the past several months. A breakdown would be scary. But for now, they're both appetizing. 

I refuse to buy on the way up. I want to buy on a pullback, which may not come today. 

Okay, Spot Gold now 1559+. Professor Turd was 100% correct on this call. 

I like NGD more than XG, but in this gold rush, DGP makes more sense after a pullback. It broke out at 44 on April 5, now at 50.46. Much more movement (2x ETF). Looking for DGP at 49.99. 

Wish list

DGP 49.99 (currently 50.45)

SLV 45 (currently 47.31)

AGQ 350 (currently 366.03)

Planning to hold that small position in GLD for awhile. 

XG was at 9.30 when Bernankepalooza began on Wednesday, even with this 2% gain today, it is only at 9.66. Compelling. The company is rather transparent (re: video on YouTube). 

Update 7:57 am (Hawaii) A double bull gold ETF, DGP, is up 2.6%. GLD is up 1.4%. Either DGP is undervalued or GLD is over. 

Update 8:18 am (Hawaii) Liked the MACD bounce possibility in DGP, so I entered at 50.63. It has already blasted through 50 and the possibility of a gold selloff/profit-taking is there, but it's a calculated risk, as always. Spot Gold now at 1562.70. 

Update 8:38 am (Hawaii) Spot Gold breaking out to 1569+, taking DGP up to a 51.13 HOD. But it still appears DGP is slightly "trailing" GLD. DGP was up 4.1% to GLD's 2.1%. If this holds much longer, I'll chalk it up to a conversion glitch. 

Update 8:53 am (Hawaii) I know Spot Gold is not done going up. DGP is flatlining at 50.89 and I've already lost half of the gains in this position (albeit just one hour long). But a trade is a tarde. 

Spoke too late. DGP now at 50.86 and bidding down to 50.83. Long term, I doubt China quits buying gold and silver. For now, though, might be time to get out of DGP. 

Update 9:12 am (Hawaii) Out of DGP at 50.76 (most at 50.77, then the last at 50.70). This was a little unnerving. I wasn't comfortable while DGP sat in the 50.60s, but it shot up to the 50.80s, then leveled off before going above 51 for 2-3 minutes. I didn't pull the trigger there because of greed? Fear of losing on a bigger gain? It wouldn't have been a big profit, but it would've been nice for a 1-hour trade. But I waited and waited and sure enough, DGP dropped below 51, below 50.90 ... and below 50.80. After opening at 49.15, the selloff had to come sometime. So, out of a potential 50¢ profit, I made 13¢. That's really bad. The profit was negligible. Should be easy enough to use a stop-loss order. Question is why I have trouble opening a gift-wrapped profit. 

I like the price action in DGP. Still holding a small position in GLD. If we get a dip before the bell or afterhours, I may add. 

Update 9:44 am (Hawaii) Sometimes it's best to just keep it simple as possible. A 4th grade kid could see I had a decent profit out of a really late trade. In and out. Over. Instead, I hang around too often, too long in some trades. GLD is good to hold, no doubt, but a double bull like DGP has to be ridden like a wild bronco: briefly and carefully. 

A closer look at DGP shows that I bought in on the fifth up leg of the day. It had FIVE legs up without declining. In hindsight, I'm lucky it wasn't worse. Must learn to recognize legs. They don't go on forever. 

Update 10:30 am (Hawaii) I wanted AGQ at 350 and I might get my wish. Doesn't mean I'm buying. Currently 353.70 after hours, low of the day. SLV is at 46.56 and slipping. Still prefer that at 45, but with all the negative press (catching up to the blogosphere), SLV's best days are probably limited. 

Still like DGP on a pullback. A near-term retrace from today's high (51.13 to recent resistance-turned-support at 47.33) would be at 49.68, or a 38.2% Fibonacci level. That's my interpretation of a bullish stock/ETF in a bullish sector. 

Update 10:46 am (Hawaii) Brother Turd's take on today's CME shenanigans, Spot Gold's explosion and more. Thanks to his reasoning and experience, a lot of us have made money this week. My understanding of precious metals was nada zilcho until the past few months, reading his words of wisdom along with other bloggers and video bloggers. I left a decently stupid sum of money on the table by not exiting trades quickly enough, but that's my own problem. For his gracious sharing of knowledge, I thank the Turd!