12:16 pm (Hawaii). After sleeping through most of the session, I arose to find the markets generally flat for the day, if positive. I also found AAPL hovering at 330 despite opening around 338. Support is at 326, which AAPL tested earlier in the week. As I lie here in bed with my (not brand new) MacBook Pro, it is a true WTF moment. I checked headlines. Nothing. Then I explored forums and learned that CNBC has reported rumors of Steve Jobs' resignation.
That would explain the incredible avalanche of selling during that 45-minute stretch in the morning. Possibly with the problem of the supply chain (Japan), a lot more people had stop-loss orders on their shares. eBay listings have iPad 2 available anywhere from $600 to $1,400 today. In other words, a buy-and-trade on an iPad 2 was a better profit than the stock this week.
From here, it's all about AAPL refuting (or not) the rumor, and updates on the Fukushima nuclear reactors. The rest of the market, I'll take a look at later. But as I get the cobwebs out, this is all that really matters in today's session to me. If Thomas Edison had run his own publicly-traded company and turned gravely ill, would it have been bigger than this to his shareholders? I theorize that it would have been of equal scale. Not necessarily of equal importance, but the scale of Jobs' status is like no other individual in the market. If the rumor turns up true, I expect a selloff of about 8-10%. That could take AAPL down to the next support level of 297-300. AAPL has been undervalued even at its highs in the 360s. At 300, it would be a pure buying opportunity, global events pending. If the rumor is not true, better yet. I'd rather see Steve Jobs healthy and with us for decades to come, more than anything for his family's sake.
I'm still 100% cash here. Binoculars at my side.
Michael Schulman: The new buy and hold stock: Apple (Mar 14 2011)
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