Something's got to give

Silver futures keep surging, now near its high of the day (pre-premarket) at 36.58 (+3.5%). Gold is up (+1%) and crude oil futures are at 106.60 (+1.5%). But the strange thing is Dow Jones (+0.3%), S&P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq (+0.3%) are higher than they were a few hours ago.

Something's gotta give soon.

Silver bullet, indeed

My watch list has 48% up, 36% down and 16% flat. UCO (+3.9%) is now 58.67. SLV (+3.3%) up to 35.82 and SLW (+2.8%) now 46.22. GG, Cramer's touted metal play, is up 2.9% to 51.50. GLD is up 1.1% to 140.83. 

The smaller, but explosive PM plays, NGD and EXK, are lagging a bit. NGD (10.79) is up 0.7%. EXK (9.36) is up just 0.2% after tearing through 7 and 8 thresholds in recent weeks. 

What's not working so far? PSUN (-1.4%), CLNE (-1%), QID (-0.8%) and TVIX (-0.5%). This early trading is on thin volume and a lot of manipulative games are played to sucker in longs and shorts alike. 

Update, 2:52 am (Hawaii). EXK now trading with some regularity volume-wise (by premarket standards) and is ripping through the all-time high, now 9.94 (+6.4%). 

Update, 8:17 am (Hawaii). Rain is falling in Honolulu again, making conditions perfect for a good night's rest. At least twice, the thought of missing a market on the upside crossed my mind, but I woke at 8:10 to see everything down, led by Nasdaq's 2% plunge. Even silver, which has stayed above 36 after another all-time high, can't keep silver stocks up. 

SLW has been on a downtrend and is trading at 44+, a strange sight, but it's not shocking given the huge move recently. 

26% of my watch list is red, 74% green, 2% flat. That's highly unusual, especially with many names that are built for days when "normal" equities struggle. Retailers, which normally build momentum as spring season began, are getting crushed. 

RLOC (-8.6%) 17.20

PSUN (-4.4%) 4.26

OPEN (-4.3%) 86.11

LULU (-4.3%) 73.91

IPI (-4%) 36.68

I saw AAPL at 361+ premarket, but it fell all the way to 351 and is now hovering at 353 (-2%). Stunning, but again, not shocking. Buying opportunity? If I were leaning in that direction I'd nibble in rather than go full position. The "fear" index is faring well. The Unholy Trinity of TVIX, VXX and QID are stomping all in its path, while physical silver plays remain stalwart. 

TVIX (+10%) 47.28

VXX (+4.7%) 33.22

QID (+4%) 52.57

EXK (+3.5%) 9.67

PHYS (+1.3%) 13.06

UCO (+1.4%) 57.26

SLV is also up (+1.1%) but more traders and investors are probably getting cautious about the empty vaults of JP Morgan. Global crises, riots, civil wars ... not conducive to sketchy bank procedures, i.e. a pittance of physical silver to back the paper issue. GLD is fractionally up (+0.4%). 

I remain 100% cash. Now, to catch up with the news on this Monday morning in the islands. Sucks that the online CNBC feed no longer works. 

Update, 9:20 am (Hawaii). So, the alternating (sorta) days of ups and downs for the market continue. Or this could be the crescendo. In silver, at least, it feels like enthusiasm is turning into greed. 

Monday reading

AP: Obama: Military action against Libya possible (Mar 7 2011)
CNN Money: Federal Reserve's Lockhart: Oil shock could lead to QE3 (Mar 7 2011) 

Turd Ferguson: Blythe stubs out her last ciggy (Mar 7 2011)

Radio New Zealand: Gaddafi forces renew attack on opposition-held land (Mar 7 2011)

CNBC: Oil prices ease on Gaddafi report after nearing $107 (Mar 7 2011)

Institutional Investor: David Tepper gets off to a good start (Mar 7 2011)

Business Insider: Richard Russell calls Buffett ignorant, says gold is on its way to $6,000 (Mar 7 2011)

King World News: Louise Yamada: $80 silver, $2,000 gold and $140 crude oil (Mar 6 2011)