UCO — Crude could go to the moon, but I'm not convinced that the White House won't have a say in controlling the inevitable pain. That's why I don't believe today's run to 102 (and UCO's move from 52 to 54) will repeat daily. Pass (for now). Unless those Saudi tanks start firing. Then I'm riding that UCO to the bank. 
AAPL — Steve Jobs speaks, AAPL runs from 349 to 354 and pulls back to 351. Now nearing 353 after hours. Trading range now 350-355. What would push AAPL back to 360 and beyond? There's no catalyst until March 11 when iPad 2 hits stores. Until then, fund managers are going to stay out. But the appearance of Jobs is a major key to forward consistency in the stock. At 354-355, AAPL was 5% up from its near-term low (338). No point in entering a new position here unless it's for a swing trade to 360 or 370. Does it matter that we got to see Steve Jobs back? Heck yeah. To deny this is folly.
SLW — Even if the precious metals run is taking a well-deserved breather, I'd hate to be napping (again) while SLW takes its next leg up. It will happen unless JP Morgan shocks Planet Earth and reveals that it has found 1 trillion ounces of silver. "We totally forgot. It was in Grandpa's attic. Sorry." That won't happen, so a long-term position in silver is prescient. Especially if you got in last year. Or the year before. By the way, I think it's time for the precious metals industry to get hip to marketing. Wouldn't Silver Surfer, aka Norrin Rad, make a great spokesman for Silver Wheaton? The possibilities for insanely magnificent TV commercials, web commercials boggles the mind. Disney, Stan Lee ... talk to these guys. PSUN — Still have no idea what makes Pacific Sunwear so appealing to Sir Le Fly. This is why he rakes it in and I am a lowly knave. But a lot of it has to do with A) spring season, B) rotation to retail in March and C) the company's beaten-to-a-pulp stock. At 4.52 (up 6.1% today) after hours, it's still an interesting "penny". Heck, it opened at 4.27 today. Who missed the ride? The knave, me.
The last time I traded in a retail clothing stock was LULU. Rode it from 45 to 60 a few years back. Nobody told me it would sell off back to 30. I got out at 45, broke even and that was that. Doing research on Lululemon Athletica was never boring, though, not with those great yoga tights and cool graphics. But LULU is off my radar at 75. It's about PSUN for now.
Pacific Sunwear
Market cap: 298M
Profit margin: -10.2%
Operating margin: -7.3%
Revenue: 959.1M
Quarterly Rev Growth: -3.9%
Total cash: 43.9M
Total debt: 29.2M
Float: 41.4M
Short % of float: 25.7%
Source: Yahoo Finance
Debt is manageable. Short interest is huge. This could get chopped in half or simply blow up the shorts. Speculative to say the least. Somebody must know somethin', right?
OPEN — Another Le Fly tout. No arguing with him.
• "The only real threats are Yelp and Trip Advisor, and both are partnering with Open Table instead of competing."
• "I like OPEN here for the $100 roll. Aside from the fact that they own Top Table in Europe, if you look at your Tripadvisor.com and Yelp.com apps, you can now book restaurant reservations via OPEN. This was not the case just a few weeks or months ago (who knows, really?). ... this is huge for the company."
Is he right? I don't use Open Table, but the leverage and traction are undeniable. First mover. It's a play on Groupon and ReachLocal and all that social foodie networking. At 86.10 afterhours, OPEN is still down from the recent high.
For tomorrow, I rank these four like this: 1. AAPL, 2. OPEN, 3. PSUN, 4. SLW.
For longer term: 1. AAPL, 2. SLW, 3. OPEN, 4. PSUN.
Thursday's aren't exactly bullish lately. Doesn't mean there's a lack of opportunities. I just need one and I just need to execute according to parameters, unlike the latest trade. All cash, 100%.
Update, 6:46 pm (Hawaii). The point about rotation out of (fill in the blanks) to retail in March is well taken. Look at PSUN vs. two retail ETFs (XRT and RTH) and note the stock's progress in March, even through April, for every year in the past five.
PSUN 5 year, monthly
PSUN 4 year, weekly gives better feel for spring runs
PSUN 1 year, daily
PSUN 6 month, daily
25% short coming into the strongest season
PSUN 1 day, 1-minute chart
Conclusion: If I were to open a position in PSUN, play money only. Shorts often know inside info long before retail schmucks like me. But things would have to be awfully bad — as they've been — in the Cali economy for the carnage to continue. Any positive catalyst, plus the strength of springs past, plus huge short interest, would set this stock skyward like a rocket.
Update, 7:30 pm (Hawaii). There is no Saudi Arabia or TASI (stock market) ETF. After next week's Day of Rage (Mar 11), at some point the TASI will rally. In fact, after 13 consecutive days down, it's a mathematical probability, to say the least. The only way to play the TASI that I can see is crude oil.
Update, 9:21 pm (Hawaii). Fibonacci applies in the recent swings of AAPL: 326 to 365 (intraday high); 61.8% pullback of that gain was 340; AAPL dipped to 338; reversal at Fib level (of the decline from 365 to 338) takes AAPL back up to 355, which was achieved on Tuesday. Probably more incidental than true Fibonacci, but very interesting. From here, I think a new range will be established thanks to 1) iPad 2 furor (new catalyst) and 2) Steve Jobs' appearance. Apple is handling the marketing differently: no pre-orders before release date (Mar 11). Also, no iPad 2s will be sold until 5 pm that day, which is a Friday, setting up the potential for long-ass lines and a weekend of Apple Mania. The buzz will be on. It will be difficult to look elsewhere to make a trade for me and probably a majority of traders. We're in between earnings report seasons and the global environment is sketchy. So there's AAPL. The run has probably begun (after bottoming this week so far at 348). 352 afterhours today and probably higher in premarket tomorrow. Guessing that AAPL nears its all-time high (365) before March 11.
And finally, the funniest chart of the day.
18-year chart, monthly
AAPL def. SPY, by a hair
Wednesday reading
Total Investor: History lesson: Oil price spikes and their aftermath (Mar 3 2011) Excellent collection of historical spikes and US military involvement that drastically reversed crude prices. In other words, wouldn't want to be long UCO the day the US announces sending forces to Libya.
Zero Hedge: China 'attacks the dollar' — moves to further cement renminbi reserve currency status (Mar 2 2011) "... Central Bank would respond to overseas demand for the yuan to be used as a reserve currency." This comes off last week's news out of India, tying the rupee to the RMB. So ... what's the play here? There's an edge somewhere in this.
Zero Hedge: A deep walkthru for silver manipulation - redux (Mar 2 2011) "... I thought fundamentals and gamesmanship were useless in the face of almight Standard Deviation model. That was a mistake."
AP: Oil jumps over $102 per barrel (Mar 2 2011)
Jeff Rubin: Only a recession stands in the way of $200 oil (Mar 2011) "... it will be difficult to keep prices from moving even higher as investors start piling on the oil bandwagon, particularly when they see Saudi Arabia's much touted four million a barrel a day excess capacity is largely of the fictional variety."
Silver guru Morgan: Get ready for a major correction (Mar 3 2011) Although he's still very bullish about silver in the long term, but "... sentiment is too high and secondly gold hasn't really confirmed this move yet."
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