Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Yeah, credit cards are evil ... and profitable

Frontline all over the credit-card industry tonight. No way for the credit monsters to win unless you're long. Wish I'd bought MasterCard awhile back. Even with Mr. Bear feasting, MA is rising toward its highs again. I've said it before: No sense in fighting a losing fight. I hate credit cards as much as anyone. I refuse to use them. I refuse to buy into a system that "rewards" me with 18- or 35-percent interest just so to increase my credit rating. It's stupid, but it's America.

Can't beat 'em? Join 'em.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Market just pissing it all away

No surprise here. No news still would've moved the Dow Jones and Nasdaq down, but the Fed bailout of Bear Stearns ... the road is so crooked, nobody can see straight. CNBC says two days ago, Bear Stearns insisted that there were no liquidity problems. And yet, today, they accept a bailout and the market goes haywire, down 2%. Nasdaq is down 61 points.

The very thing that annoys me to no end — people borrowing and spending beyond their limits — is what has put our economy under enormous, severe pressure on several fronts. Many of us can't pay for our homes anymore. Many of us are in major credit debt. China basically owns our ass. And that gets worse with the dollar falling off a cliff. Even the Japanese have us by the nuggets now that the dollar is worth only ¥99.

Is anything in the green today? Barely.

• Blue Nile is up a fraction, but at 40, it has been destroyed since hitting a high of 100 last year
• Ninetowns Internet (NINE) is up 2.3% to 2.23, but is down from its all-time high of 7.20
• China Medical is up fractionally to 40
• Dick's Sporting Goods is up 2.5% to 26.66
• Gamestop is up 2.4% to 48.31
• Boeing is up 1.3% to 75.17
• Healthways is up almost 1% to 32.73

But those are far and few in between. The vast majority of the market is deep in a red sea. Commodities had been steady until today's selloff. Gold hit $1,009 per ounce. IShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up a bit to 204.86. Global silver supply will dry up within a decade, supposedly. That reminds me of the talk that phosphorus supply will evaporate within 50 years, and will hit the fertilizer sector in a bad way. It's only fitting that "liquid gold" may become a source of phosphorus some day. Quite gross, but in the realm of possibility.

So now what?

The Fed pours cash in and the trickle-down-effect is real. Real temporary. Can this latest trick by Uncle Sam really keep the stock market from sliding off a cliff again? We'll see soon enough. Friday is usually sayonara time for traders, especially in a bear market. If the market ends up big on huge volume today, I'll be surprised.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Respect the Mag-maaa

Preposterous. Ridiculous. Ludicrous. There are all kinds of words to describe the carnage done to some of the world's best publicly traded companies. But the reality is, like the last homeowners who try to stand in the way of a lava flow, logic has nothing to do with it. You either get out and save yourself, or stay put and get steamrolled by tons of fiery magma.

Simple as that. Simplicity is rarely easy to execute, of course.

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Even Potash can't escape the storm. Not cheap, though, even now.

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What do you do with good stocks gone bad? Best to wait it out.

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This is real strength here. Impressive, but not a reason to dive in.

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All the solars fell off a roof, including the best of breed. Not cheap. Not yet.

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Mickey D cuts against the grain. Not cheap anymore.

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This chart defies the rest of the market.

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Interesting that PetroChina dropped while its cousin CNOOC gained.

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Not a thing wrong with Disney. Just caught in the tide.

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Flowserve takes another hit, but still not cheap.

PhotobucketApple looks cheap, but who dares to enter?

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China Mobile? Now this looks cheap. I just don't trust it.

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This is beyond cheap. I don't have the guts (or lunacy) to go near, though.

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Like Apple, RIMM is another stock that gets pillaged and plundered en masse by the big boys.

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Goldman Sachs is tempting below 165. But I'll just watch for now.

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When will China bounce back?

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Not cheap at all.

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Amazon has a tendency to stay below the sand before blooming just a few times a year.

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The CEO said the company will do a repeat of last year. In other words, FWLT is entering the strength of its fiscal year.

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China still spooky, but I'm watching.

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Nike is cheap again.

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Value is here, but can MSFT really grow?

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I just have a strong belief that life insurance in China will win.

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Like FSLR, STP got beaten to a pulp.

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Well-run company, but subject to any economic slowdown. I'm real close to dropping Chipotle out of my Top 25.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Stop in the name of love

Fundamental rule in a schizo market: Stops. Adam Hewison at Traders Blog (Traders Whiteboard) breaks it down in plain language.

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Hoku gets more time

Extensions, extensions. I wonder if Hoku Scientific will get full financing for the Pocatello (Idaho) polysilicon plant. Nobody really knows. But getting an extension on the deadline with Solar-Fabrik AG is huge. Still long HOKU.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Nauseous? Watch the road

The nausea caused by the market tide doesn't mean there aren't some prices worth eyeing. Twenty of the 25 stocks I like are worth a look on the recent downturn.

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ISRG starting to look attractive. Just a bit.

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MasterCard is falling, too, even though the company is making major profits. I like it here below the 100-day SMA.

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First Solar isn't cheap, but it's pretty good here. At worst, it's the leader in solar.

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Really, McDonald's shouldn't be this cheap, not with its overseas exposure and growth. The honey mustard snack wrap is my fave. Still addicted to their fries.

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Crude oil hit $104 a barrel today, but PetroChina shares are still sluggish.

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Disney is a stock worth holding for a long time.

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Up and down, down and up. Is Steve Jobs and his creative crew out of fresh ideas? I tend to think not. That's more of a key than whether they sell 10 million iPhones or not.

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Really, is Google this bad?

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RIMM's a bit pricey here.

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I'd buy on these crazy dips if I could. Goldman Sachs at 165, didn't expect it, but it was always a possibility.

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Focus Media hasn't proven its potential just yet and it's a bit expensive here.

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CNOOC Ltd. is doing fairly well, while its cousin PetroChina is a slug. Go figure. Could be CNOOC's natural gas segment is getting a boost from rising demand.

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Crashing hard. Where it bottoms out, who knows?

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On discount lately. The CEO says they'll bounce back, just like last year.

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Baidu and other China leaders can't get any traction here. Just a matter of time, perhaps, until the Beijing Olympics has an effect.

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Nike trading in a range. Spooky here.

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Just watching Mr. Softee for now.

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China Life Insurance finally leveling out. What do the technical junkies call it? An ascending triangle ... which means it may break out. Or not.

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Suntech Power is appealing right here.

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There are probably dozens of better stocks than Chipotle right now. But I'm still watching.

Oil stocks steady in rough market seas

Frankly, I'm not a big fan of Barron's, but their call on oil stocks last week remains a dead-on winner. Here's how their five oil stocks, all with ties to the Bakken Shale of North Dakota, have fared. Below, the opening price on Monday, Feb. 25, and today's closing price.

WLL | 59.49 | 60.97 | +2.5%
EOG | 100.27 | 122.17 | +21.8%
BEXP | 7.13 | 8.01 | +12.3%
CLR | 25.05 | 28.57 | +14.1%
MRO | 51.54 | 53.81 | +4.4%

On a weighted scale, these stocks are up 11% in six sessions since Barron's ran the story. In a tumultuous market, that's black gold.